An extended likelihood framework for modelling discretely observed credit rating transitions

The estimation of the parameters of a continuous-time Markov chain from discrete-time observations, also known as the embedding problem for Markov chains, plays in particular an important role for the modeling of credit rating transitions. This missing data problem boils down to a latent variable setting and thus, maximum likelihood estimation is usually conducted using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. We illustrate that the EM algorithm is likely to get stuck in local maxima of the likelihood function in this specific problem setting and adapt a stochastic approximation simulated annealing scheme (SASEM) as well as a genetic algorithm (GA) to combat this issue. Above that, our main contribution is to extend our method GA by a rejection sampling scheme, which allows one to derive stochastic monotone maximum likelihood estimates in order to obtain proper (non-crossing) multi-year probabilities of default. We advocate the use of this procedure as direct constrained optimization (of the likelihood function) will not be numerically stable due to the large number of side conditions. Furthermore, the monotonicity constraint enables one to combine structural knowledge of the ordinality of credit ratings with real-life data into a statistical estimator, which has a stabilizing effect on far off-diagonal generator matrix elements. We illustrate our methods by Standard and Poor’s credit rating data as well as a simulation study and benchmark our novel procedure against an already existing smoothing algorithm.     

中国新能源制氢潜力评价研究——基于31省份2017年和2030年的分析

使用SBM-Undesirable模型测算我国31省份的新能源制氢效率,从新能源制氢效率和新能源装机容量两个维度构建评价体系,再应用熵权评价法,对我国31省份的新能源制氢潜力进行分析,同时研究了新能源制氢潜力2017—2030年的变化情况。结果表明:风电制氢的效率明显高于光伏制氢;西北和华北地区的新能源制氢潜力明显高于其他地区;西北和华南地区存在新能源制氢潜力与加氢设施建设之间短期发展不均衡的现象;2030年我国各省份新能源制氢效率和潜力较2017年都有所提升。最后,依据评价结果提出改善我国氢能产业发展的对策建议。     

Optimising flight connection times in airline bank structure through Simulated Annealing and Tabu Search algorithms

In hub and spoke airline networks, flight arrivals and departures generally have a bank structure to increase connections among spoke cities through a hub airport in order to provide cheaper service for higher volumes of air traffic. In this study, we introduce the airline bank optimisation problem with a novel mathematical model for improving flight connection times. The mathematical model aims to minimise the total connection times for transfer passengers and generates flight schedules regarding slot capacities in the hub airports. Since the problem is a combinatorial optimisation problem NP-hard and computational complexity increases rapidly for real-world problems, we employ the simulated annealing and the tabu search algorithms to achieve better solutions in a reasonable time. We generate sub-problems using real-world data and investigate the effectiveness of the algorithms. Finally, we present the results of a real case study of a Turkish airline company which has a hub airport connecting the flights between Middle Eastern and European cities.     

Dynamic supply chain network design with capacity planning and multi-period pricing

This paper addresses a new problem in designing and planning a multi-echelon and multi-product supply chain network over a multi-period horizon in which customer zones have price-sensitive demands. Based on price-demand relationships, a generic method is presented to obtain price levels for products and then, a mixed-integer linear programming model is developed. Due to the problem intractability, a simulated annealing algorithm that uses some developed linear relaxation-based heuristics for capacity planning and pricing is presented. Numerical results demonstrate the significance of the model as well as the efficiency of the solution algorithm and linear relaxation-based heuristics.     

Hybrid metaheuristic solutions to inventory location routing problem

This paper considers a supply chain network with multiple depots and geographically dispersed customers, each of which faces non-constant demand over a discrete planning horizon. The goal is to determine a set of depots to open, the delivery quantities to customers per period and the sequence in which they are replenished by a vehicle fleet such that the total system-wide cost is minimized. To solve it, first we construct a mixed integer program, and then propose a hybrid metaheuristic consisting of initialization, intensification and post-optimization. Results show that the proposed heuristic is considerably efficient and effective for many classical instances.     

电子级过氧化氢的生产、市场和技术开发

介绍了电子级过氧化氢产品用途、国内外生产与市场状况，指出我国在该领域与国外的差距；简述了树脂法-膜分离集成净化过氧化氢技术开发现状：并指出今后该技术的发展方向。     

45#钢焊接式空心淬火辊加工工艺探讨

45#钢焊接式空心淬火辊在实际中存在很多加工难点,经常有成品辊因为两端焊接轴头而造成辊身硬度偏低,或者焊接产生内应力而产生裂纹的境况发生从而导致成品辊报废。鉴于此,本文在分析影响产品因为焊接退火及因为焊接产生的应力的基础上,以45#钢空心淬火辊为例,介绍下该类零件的加工工艺和改进方法。     

罗茨鼓风机在氢气输送中的应用

本文介绍了L系列罗茨鼓风机在氢气输送过程中替代液环泵的优势与特点。     

供应链中数学模型及其算法研究

通过对供应链研究现状的分析,进而对供应链中数学模型进行了深入的探讨。论文采用双层规划模型描述了提出的问题,其中上层规划模型是从生产商的角度出发,使得生产成本最小化;而下层规划模型则是从供应商的角度出发,使得收益最大化。文中对双层规划模型设计了相应的模拟退火算法进行求解。算例结果表明,模型和算法都是有效的,从而为供应链中角色决策提供支持。     

制浆过氧化氢不锈钢容器管道的不利影响及防止措施

文章阐述了纸浆过氧化氢漂白中金属离子的影响机理及来源,介绍防止制浆过氧化氢容器管道锈蚀产生不利影响的一些方法。