项目风险预警系统的构建

工程项目进行中会遇到各种风险，要做好风险管理，就要建立完善的项目风险预警系统，通过跟踪项目风险因素的变动趋势，测评风险所处状态，尽早地发出预警信号，及时向业主、项目监管方和施工方发出警报，为决策掌握和控制风险争取更多的时间，尽早采取有效措施防范和化解项目风险。  

高斯型模糊逻辑系统的BP算法及其应用

在模糊逻辑控制和神经网络理论的基础上给出了高斯型模糊逻辑系统及其 BP算法 ,并给出了 BP算法的一种初始参数的选择方法和反向调整参数的公式 ;还构造了基于高斯型模糊逻辑系统的辨识器并在 Matlab5.1平台上作了仿真实验 ,仿真实例说明了这种算法的可行性和可靠性。有待进一步研究讨论的是如何更好地选择初始参数以获得更好的跟踪效果  

Corporate reputation and customer behavioral intentions: The roles of trust, identification and commitment

How does corporate reputation influence customer behavioral intentions? This article proposes a model with customer trust, customer identification and customer commitment as the key intervening factors between corporate reputation and customer purchase intention and willingness to pay a price premium. We test the model by using data from 351 customers of three Chinese B2B service firms. Results indicate that corporate reputation has positive influence on both customer trust and customer identification. Customer commitment mediates the relationships between the two relational constructs (customer trust and customer identification) and behavioral intentions. Customer identification and customer commitment relate closely, but they are distinct constructs in the B2B setting.  

石油价格波动规律及其预警识别体系研究

石油价格波动及预警识别理论是研究石油价格在内外因素影响下的变化以及由变化程度映射出的警戒状态及其响应机制的理论。现今主流的石油价格波动理论基本以石油价格量为唯一研究基础.相应的预警识别体系亦与之相附和。就研究效果而言其直观度较高,但预测准确性较弱。同时预警准值的确定缺乏依据且识别体系简单。本文在沿袭现有油价量为基准的研究方法的同时。创新性地提出以相对率表达价格波动,并以此为基础构建预警识别体系。而警限值亦创造性地运用分位数法确定。并对传统的专家法的合理性作了科学验证以及优化。价格调控依据是波动率,调控基础对象是价格量,价格量的回归使波动平抑后则实现调控目标。  

电网企业电力物资采购风险管理

根据电力物资采购风险的形成机理对风险进行分类,识别出主要的风险因素。在风险识别的基础上,评估各风险因素发生的程度、可能性、可控性和可预见性,明确了电网企业风险管理的重点,并制定了电力物资采购风险的总体对策和具体应对方法。  

神经网络PID控制器在温度控制中的应用

采用计算机技术,能够方便地将神经网络PID控制器应用于实际工业过程中。在介绍基于对角递归神经网络辨识的PID控制器结构及学习算法的基础上,采用PCS-B型过程控制系统实验装置,以MCGS组态软件为运行平台,对加热器温度控制系统进行了实验研究。实验结果表明,通过神经网络PID控制策略组态,能够在线调整PID控制器参数,在温度控制实验中获得了满意的控制效果。  

弹性支撑直线电机系统模型的建立方法

根据弹性支撑直线电机的工作原理建立了系统的理论模型,通过仿真实验表明系统的理论模型与实际模型的频响之间存在较大的偏差。为了得到更精确的数学模型,本文设计了辨识实验,讨论了辨识实验中应采用的输入信号及辨识方法,利用辨识实验得到了直线电机系统比较精确的系统数学模型,最后对辨识实验中应该注意的问题进行了说明。  

政府投资工程项目代建制风险识别及其防范

代建制是对我国政府投资工程项目管理模式进行积极探索的一种尝试，新的管理模式在目前市场环境尚未成熟的条件下推行会产生众多风险，正确识别代建项目的风险，并对风险进行有效管理和分配是保证项目成功的重要措施。文章研究了代建项目风险因素的识别、阶段分布，提出代建项目阶段性风险规避措施，发挥代建制优势并促进代建制在国内政府工程领域的发展。  

Design of a novel adaptive inventory control system based on the online identification of lead time

In this paper, an adaptation method for the online identification of lead time is incorporated in production–inventory control systems. Based on the lead time estimate, the tuning parameters are updated in real time to improve the efficiency of the system. Combination of the adaptive scheme with a proportional control law is able to eliminate the inventory drift that appears when the actual lead time is not known in advance or when it varies with time. A detailed analysis is provided for the proposed production–inventory system, including a stability analysis and the quantification of its bullwhip effect. Several examples and comparison with state-of-the-art alternative approaches illustrate the efficiency of the system.  

Estimating demand from eBay prices

This paper presents results for identification and estimation of the value distribution from eBay auction prices. The paper presents results for eBay type auctions with independent private values and unobserved participation. It is first shown that the distribution of values is identified from observing the distribution of prices and knowing the distribution of potential bidders. The main identification result presents conditions for which the distribution of values and the distribution of potential bidders are simultaneously identified. Not surprisingly, the intuition is similar to the standard results for identifying demand from observed equilibrium prices. The estimation method suggested by the identification results is used to estimate the value distribution for the “C5” Chevrolet Corvette sold on eBay. The results suggest that a simple OLS model on prices will over estimate the mean value of the item. The estimation results are then used to calculate the optimal reserve price for these cars. The estimated optimal reserves are compared to the actual reserves. Actual hidden reserves are set much higher than actual non-hidden reserves. The evidence suggests sellers set Buy-It-Nows and hidden reserves optimally to account for re-listing opportunities.