总量均衡区间与宏观调控应确立的若干新原则

现代市场经济条件下,供给方调整其生产规模所需的成本可称为调节成本。由于存在调节成本,传统分析中的“总量均衡中心点”两侧便分别存在着“低位临界点”与“高位临界点”,这两点界定了一个特殊的“总量均衡区间”。“总量均衡区间”的出现对宏观调控将产生诸多重要影响,使之面临一系列新问题、新挑战。为有效应对这种新情况,在宏观调控实践中有必要相应地确立“近似均衡原则”、“适度超前原则”、“临界点原则”、“供给方原则”。     

“机械制图用计算机信息交换制图规则”中的若干问题探讨

分析讨论了ＧＢ／Ｔ１４６６５－９３《机械制图用计算机信息交换、制图规则》中存在的问题与错误,并提出了相应的修正建议。     

基于失效风险的建筑物预防维修成本模型优化

建筑物预防性维修成本的最优控制问题,是企业现代化经营管理的一个重要组成部分,直接影响到企业的经济效益。针对承受重复荷载作用的建筑构件,失效概率随服役时间增加而增大的实际情况,提出了失效风险的概念。采用役龄回退因子描述了维修后失效概率降低的程度,在此基础上推算出满足可靠度约束条件,适用于特定时间段非等间隔检测期序列,计算出单位维修周期内的检测次数。通过对维修成本函数的分析,建立了基于等失效风险状态的维修成本优化模型。为房屋物业管理部门进行建筑物的维修和更换决策提供参考依据。     

Credibilistic risk aversion

In the probabilistic risk aversion approach, risks are presumed as random variables with known probability distributions. However, in some practical cases, for example, due to the absence of historical data, the inherent uncertain characteristic of risks or different subject judgements from the decision-makers, risks may be hard or not appropriate to be estimated with probability distributions. Therefore, the traditional probabilistic risk aversion theory is ineffective. Thus, in order to deal with these cases, we suggest measuring these kinds of risks as fuzzy variables, and accordingly to present an alternative risk aversion approach by employing credibility theory. In the present paper, first, the definition of credibilistic risk premium proposed by Georgescu and Kinnunen [Fuzzy Inf. Eng., 2013, 5, 399–416] is revised by taking the initial wealth into consideration, and then a general method to compute the credibilistic risk premium is provided. Secondly, regarding the risks represented with the commonly used LR fuzzy intervals, a simple calculation formula of the local credibilistic risk premium is put forward. Finally, in a global sense, several equivalent propositions for comparative risk aversion under the credibility measurement are provided. Illustrated examples are presented to show the applicability of the theoretical findings.     

论艺术歌曲中的三个关系

艺术歌曲由歌词、旋律和钢琴伴奏声部共同组成,在此基础上形成了以音程、调式、歌词与旋律为主的三个关系,它们的共同作用,统一了音乐、语言以及空间思维之间的关联,展现出艺术歌曲中暗含的音乐魅力和创作技法上的普遍规律。     

论艺术歌曲中的三个关系

艺术歌曲由歌词、旋律和钢琴伴奏声部共同组成,在此基础上形成了以音程、调式、歌词与旋律为主的三个关系,它们的共同作用,统一了音乐、语言以及空间思维之间的关联,展现出艺术歌曲中暗含的音乐魅力和创作技法上的普遍规律。     

基于PRI信息的雷达脉冲信号分选技术研究综述

基于脉冲重复间隔（Pulse Repetition Interval,PRI）信息的雷达脉冲信号分选是电子侦察信号处理中的核心关键技术之一。以公开文献资料为来源,从直接搜索判定分选、直方图统计分选、PRI变换分选、平面变换分选、多方法综合应用等多个方面对该技术方向上的各种方法的原理、流程、特点、适用条件等进行了分类对比与归纳总结,指出了其所面临的巨大挑战,展现了其未来的发展趋势,为该方向上技术研究的深入推进与工程应用的优化推广提供了重要参考。     

Impact of financial/economic crisis on demand for hotel rooms in Hong Kong

The main objectives of this study are (1) to identify the factors that influence the demand for hotel rooms in Hong Kong and (2) to generate quarterly forecasts of that demand to assess the impact of the ongoing financial/economic crisis. The demand for four types of hotel room from the residents of nine major origin countries is considered, and forecasts are generated from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2015. Econometric approaches are employed to calculate the demand elasticities and their corresponding confidence intervals, which are then used to generate interval demand predictions. The empirical results reveal that the most important factors in determining the demand for hotel rooms in Hong Kong are the economic conditions (measured by income level) in the origin markets, the price of the hotel rooms and the ‘word of mouth’ effect. Demand for High Tariff A and Medium Tariff hotel rooms is estimated to have experienced negative annual growth in 2009 due to the influence of the financial/economic crisis, whereas that for High Tariff B hotel rooms is thought to have grown in 2009 after having decreased in 2008. The demand for tourist guesthouse rooms is expected to be the least affected by the crisis. Overall demand is predicted to recover gradually from 2010 onwards.     

Mixture representations for discrete Linnik laws

In this paper we give mixture representations for the discrete Mittag–Leffler and Linnik laws. Our results form the discrete analogues of the mixture representations for the generalized symmetric Linnik distribution obtained by P AKES (1998). As an application, we derive the infinite divisibility of mixtures of Mittag–Leffler distributions. Alternative mixture representations in terms of discrete stable distributions are also presented.     

基于效应的随机灰规划模型和应用

为了解决同时含有随机因素和灰色因素的不确定规划问题,通过结合区间灰数所属区间两个端点的随机性,给出随机区间灰数和随机区间灰函数的定义,提出了随机灰规划模型。通过综合效应函数理论用随机变量期望值和方差综合量化表示灰数所属区间的两个端点值。应用该理论对综合量化后的两个端点值继续进行综合量化,从而将随机灰规划转化为确定型规划问题。应用遗传算法进行求解。通过综合效应函数的理念,综合随机变量的期望和方差,同时综合区间灰数的区间因素,将随机灰规划数学模型转化为确定型规划模型即基于效应的随机灰规划模型。通过选取不同的综合效应函数,得到了关于不同决策意识下的随机灰规划的最优解。这个方法可为决策者进行不确定决策提供参考。