What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†

We investigate the effects of the 2008 New Zealand (NZ)–China free trade agreement (FTA) on exports from NZ to China, and real GDP per capita in NZ using the synthetic control method to estimate the counterfactuals. NZ exports to China were more than 200% higher in 2014 than what they would have had the FTA never been signed. NZ's food and live animals exports to China were more than 180% higher in 2014 than the counterfactual. Our counterfactuals indicate a small but negative effect of the FTA on NZ's real GDP per capita between 2009 and 2012.     

You say you want a (Rose) Revolution? The effects of Georgia's 2004 market reforms

After Georgia declared its independence from the Soviet Union, it experienced civil war and strife for more than a decade. In late 2003, the peaceful Rose Revolution installed a new government that began a series of radical market‐liberal reforms. However, the effectiveness of these reforms was controversial. We offer a rigorous evaluation of these reforms via the synthetic control method which creates a credible counterfactual. Compared to the synthetic controls, we find that the reforms enacted after the Rose Revolution led to significant improvements in Georgia's social and economic development, albeit with temporary side effects and argue that this case provides some support for the effectiveness of rapid, multidimensional reform.     

Linking of sample data to small areas

We consider methods for estimating the means of survey variables in domains of a finite population, where sample sizes are too small to obtain reliable direct estimates. We construct generalized compositions from the direct and traditional design-based synthetic estimators and propose the methodology for evaluating their coefficients. This methodology measures similarities among sample elements and estimates of the domain means. We propose the compositions for two cases of auxiliary information: domain-level characteristics are available; true means of auxiliary variables are available for the estimation domains, and unit-level auxiliary vectors are known for the sample elements. In the simulation study, we show where the generalized compositions improve the traditional synthetic and composite estimators.     

Wage returns to education in Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we aim to provide robust estimates of wage returns to education in Ethiopia. Previous estimates vary widely based on the scope and size of the study sample, variables employed, and estimation method. We use two recent rounds of national labour force survey data and a pseudo- (or synthetic) panel framework to address the well-known potential endogeneity of schooling in wage regressions. Birth-year cohort based pseudo-panel estimate of the return to an additional year of education is between 14 percent and 16 percent, 4 to 5 percentage points higher than that from ordinary least squares (OLS). The significant downward bias in OLS is further confirmed by two-year pseudo-panel estimates and remains robust, to a large extent, as we use an alternate model, change the estimation sample, and address selection bias concurrently with endogenous schooling using a novel approach. We discuss some possible explanations in the context of Ethiopia.     

Aggregate and distributional impacts of China’s household responsibility system

It is 40 years since China started to abandon collective farming, with initial rural reforms in 1978 that culminated in adoption of the household responsibility system (HRS). Existing studies of impacts of these reforms do not consider nonrandom spread of the HRS, spillovers from early adopters, or distributional effects. In this paper, the synthetic control method and spatial autoregressive panel models with autoregressive errors are used to estimate impacts of the HRS that account for these features. The HRS had a significant positive effect on grain output and food supply in China, while also helping to reduce regional inequality.     

基于星载极化SAR数据的农作物分类识别进展评述

［目的］农作物播种面积信息不仅可为农情监测和作物估产提供重要的数据保障，还是国家制定粮食政策和经济计划的重要依据。快速、准确地获取农作物播种面积信息能为农业生产管理提供决策支持。极化SAR不受云雨天气的影响，在农作物遥感监测方面具有巨大的应用潜力，有效利用极化SAR数据进行农作物识别研究对促进雷达技术在国家农业遥感监测和农业供给侧结构性改革中发挥更大作用具有重要意义。［方法］以星载极化SAR技术的发展过程为论述主线，从单、双极化SAR数据，单、双极化SAR数据结合光学影像，全极化SAR数据三个发展阶段，对极化SAR数据在农作物分类识别中的研究与应用进行总结，并对比分析不同的识别特征、融合算法以及分类算法的优缺点。［结果］以往研究存在以下不足：当前研究多以识别水稻为主，对于难以识别的旱地作物研究较少；目前对旱地作物识别精度不高，平均识别精度不足85%；缺乏对不同作物散射机制及其随时相变化的研究，导致分类算法机理性不足，普适性较差。［结论］在今后的研究中，旱地作物散射机制的定量确定，如何利用散射机制及其变化来提高旱地作物遥感识别精度和普适性；目前分类算法大都是基于光学影像设计，如何利用SAR特殊的成像方式优化设计适用于极化SAR数据的分类算法，得到更高的分类精度；如何更好的跟光学遥感等多源数据（光学数据、GIS数据等）结合来提高精度，将成为未来极化SAR农作物识别中三个亟需重点解决的问题。     

民办院校有机化学实验多元化教学模式探索

民办院校把有机化学实验作为有机化学教学的重要组成部分,多元化教学模式主要从教学方法与手段、教学内容、学习方式、考评体系等方面进行多元化教学模式探索。建立以微课视频、翻转课堂、问题引导,依托基础性实验、综合型实验和创新型实验,依托多元化信息化的教学手段雨课堂、虚拟仿真情景模拟实验、超星尔雅平台,融合多种教学方法,结合“线下”翻转课堂,建立多元化教学模式。这种多元化教学模式能有效提高学生的学习主动性和创新能力。     

区域经济一体化研究动态:国外文献综述

区域经济一体化由最初作为GATT体制的"无奈补充"发展成为各国推动贸易自由化的重要途径。文章选择区域经济一体化理论基础、经济效应、政治利益、影响因素、诱因分析以及研究方法等六个方面,梳理了国外学者的研究动态,并提出了对我国参与区域经济一体化的三点启示。     

基于顾客价值构建零售业复合价值链

本文结合零售和零售业的活动特征,明确了零售业产出的是包含一组商品和服务、具有顾客价值的混合产品包。因此零售业价值链既不能简单套用波特的产业价值链,也不能完全照搬海斯凯特等人的服务-利润链,而是集成二者的复合价值链。本文对其进行了详细描述,并讨论了复合价值链对零售业的管理意义。     

产品生命周期的研究

产品生命周期是指一代产品进入市场后需求存续变化的周期,而不是指需求量、销量波动变化的周期。我们应当研究细分市场的产品生命周期,根据市场某种特性质变的界面来划分产品生命周期的阶段,才更具有营销意义。现行流行的划分产品周期阶段的四种方法。缺乏理论依据,在应用中有较大的随意性。为此,提出了综合判断法,根据多个判据的组合,定位了产品生命周期阶段之间的界面,并提出了对应的营销策略。