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Since Benford’s law is an empirical phenomenon that occurs in a range of data sets, this raises the question as to whether or not the same thing might be true in terms of the Chinese income distribution data. We focus on the first significant digit (FSD) distribution of Chinese micro income data from the 2005 Inter-Census sample, which corresponds to 1% of Chinese population and other micro income data from the China family panel studies (CFPS) and Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS). We use information theoretic-entropy based methods to investigate the degree to which Benford’s FSD law is consistent with the FSD of Chinese income data and our findings suggest consistency between the Chinese FSD income distribution and Benford’s distribution. The close connection between the two distributions has implications for the quality of the sample of Chinese micro data.  相似文献   
3.
Following years of fast-rising debt levels, we show that the Covid-19 crisis worsened an already deteriorating fiscal position in South Africa. To restore fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the crisis some commentators argue that higher government expenditure will grow GDP sufficiently to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio. We reject this, showing that although a real increase in expenditure stimulates economic growth (a short-run, once-off effect), the public expenditure/GDP ratio exceeds the level at which an increase in the ratio positively impacts growth. We then explore the past efforts of government to maintain or restore fiscal sustainability by estimating a fiscal reaction function using a Markov-switching model. Following the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the budget, we subsequently establish the deficit, expenditure and revenue adjustments that the government will have to make to restore fiscal sustainability. Finally, we consider the merits of introducing a debt ceiling.  相似文献   
4.
Dynamic factor models have been the main “big data” tool used by empirical macroeconomists during the last 30 years. In this context, Kalman filter and smoothing (KFS) procedures can cope with missing data, mixed frequency data, time-varying parameters, non-linearities, non-stationarity, and many other characteristics often observed in real systems of economic variables. The main contribution of this paper is to provide a comprehensive updated summary of the literature on latent common factors extracted using KFS procedures in the context of dynamic factor models, pointing out their potential limitations. Signal extraction and parameter estimation issues are separately analyzed. Identification issues are also tackled in both stationary and non-stationary models. Finally, empirical applications are surveyed in both cases. This survey is relevant to researchers and practitioners interested not only in the theory of KFS procedures for factor extraction in dynamic factor models but also in their empirical application in macroeconomics and finance.  相似文献   
5.
本文以制造业上市公司为研究对象,从收入动因成本中分解出收入动因固定成本和收入动因变动成本,进而计算出习性成本结构指标、保本点指标以及经营安全程度(安全边际率)指标。通过习性成本结构和经营安全程度分析可以得出以下研究结论:(1)以收入动因成本和营业净收入为基础进行的习性成本结构和经营安全程度分析是合理的、可靠的;(2)制造业整体上变动成本比重较高,行业整体营业净收入中变动成本比重为89.44%;(3)制造业整体经营风险较低,行业整体安全边际率为77.71%,处于“很安全”的范围。  相似文献   
6.
I study points programs, such as frequent flyer and other rewards programs, as a revenue management tool. I develop a two‐period contracting model where a capacity‐constrained firm faces consumers who privately learn their valuations over time. The firm cannot commit to long‐term contracts, but it can commit to allocate any unsold capacity through a points program. This points scheme creates an endogenous and type‐dependent outside option for consumers, which generates novel incentives in the firm's pricing problem. It induces the firm to screen less ex interim, and to offer lower equilibrium prices, reversing the intuition of demand cannibalization.  相似文献   
7.
研究目的:厘清集体经营性建设用地流转模式,推进集体建设用地入市改革。研究方法:以产权让渡及市场化为视角,采用矩阵分类法划分集体经营性建设用地流转模式,剖析不同流转模式特征与演进路径。研究结果:基于本研究视角可将集体经营性建设用地流转划分为6种模式,不同模式具有不同特征、运行条件、优缺点及收益分配格局,且其存在关联并遵循一定的演进规律。研究结论:规范市场下农地发展权及使用权流转模式将是当前改革的方向,需从法律法规上明确农地发展权相关规定;不同地区需因地制宜地选择流转模式及类型,探索具体实施办法,循序渐进推进流转改革与创新。  相似文献   
8.
目的 基于生态安全视角,通过建立耕地生态安全状况与地方土地财政的定量关系,解决耕地生态保护资金来源问题,建立地方政府耕地生态保护行为激励模式。方法 文章利用耕地投入—产出的能值理论,从“压力—状态—响应”方面选取17个指标建立耕地生态安全评价体系,评价2017年湖北省103个县(市、区)的耕地生态状况,构建计量模型揭示耕地生态安全与地区土地财政之间的关系,划分生态补偿区域并建立耕地生态转移支付模型。结果 湖北省耕地利用能值结构偏不合理,农业机械、农药和化肥等投入量较大,耕地的产出—投入比偏低;湖北省耕地生态安全状况水平偏低,大部分粮棉油基地多属于耕地安全临界区及安全敏感区,且耕地生态安全水平差异显著,生态安全值最低地区为江汉区(0.301 1),最高为利川市(0.663 4);通过新增建设用地建立两者之间的关系可得,耕地生态综合评分值每增长1个单位,新增建设用地对应减少2.809 hm2,地方政府土地财政收入减少283.203万元。计算得耕地生态支付区达46个,其中江汉区支付额最高(15 859.368万元),受偿区共22个,其中恩施市受偿额最高(7 645.695万元),各县(市、区)的财政转移支付额度占其当年财政总收入的比例在0.120%~3.861%,具有可操作性。结论 为实现耕地高效持续利用、建立地区政府耕地生态保护激励机制、创新生态补偿资金来源提供新视角。  相似文献   
9.
Based on passenger choice behavior, a dynamic pricing mechanism of ancillary services has been brought up for analysis in this paper. With the analysis of the passenger choice behavior of ancillary services, this study (1) analyzed the pricing of ancillary services from airlines' websites, (2) launched a survey to investigate passengers’ characteristics and preferences, (3) applied the binary logistic model to analyze passenger choice of ancillary services, and integrated into the dynamic pricing model of ancillary services. The optimal prices can be obtained at the maximum of the revenue. Based on the historical data of a Chinese domestic flight, the optimal prices of ancillary services for different types of passengers can be obtained at the maximum revenue of ancillary services, with a 74.4% increase of revenue. This paper not only created a general pricing model for improving the ancillary revenue but also provided theoretical support for ancillary pricing. The model with enough data can be dynamically applied to various flights and ancillary services.  相似文献   
10.
电影产业在我国经济发展中的作用日益显著,电影市场与我国宏观经济发展的内在联系有待深入研究。选取2012年1月到2018年3月我国周度电影票房收入增速作为高频解释变量,采用自回归分布滞后混频数据抽样模型(ADL-MIDAS)分析其与季度GDP增速及月度制造业PMI增速之间的关系,结果表明:电影票房收入增速与GDP增速和制造业PMI增速之间具有负向相关关系,我国电影市场存在“口红效应”,可以根据电影票房收入增长情况对宏观经济走势做出预判。对多种模型的比较结果显示,加入电影票房收入可以显著提高GDP预测精度,电影票房收入可以作为GDP预测指标体系的有益补充。  相似文献   
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