On Targeting Frameworks And Optimal Monetary Policy

We show that speed limit policy, a monetary policy strategy that focuses on stabilizing inflation and the change in the output gap, consistently outperforms flexible inflation targeting and flexible price level targeting in empirical medium‐scale DSGE models under discretionary policymaking. In contrast to small‐scale New Keynesian models, this welfare ranking of the targeting frameworks is not overturned when inflation dynamics are mostly backward‐looking. Importantly, the performance of the speed limit policy shows less sensitivity to its parameterization than other frameworks that target the inflation rate or the price level.     

Impact of walking speed on tourist carrying capacity: The case of Maiji Mountain Grottoes,China

This paper analyzes the impact of walking speed on tourist carrying capacity. To do so, a combination of simulation experimentation and on-the-ground experiment is suggested to work in a study case, Maiji Mountain Grottoes, China. The simulation findings indicate that walking speed has a negative impact on tourist carrying capacity and the correlation coefficient is 0.64, for the reason that walking takes up more space. The on-the-ground experiment shows that carrying capacity is not a unified limit all over a destination, but changeable temporally and spatially, and its estimation needs to be adjusted according to the minimum area required per tourist and tourist activity. The method applied in this paper and the simulation findings can serve as a methodological tool for further research about tourist carrying capacity where the main activity of tourists is walking while watching.     

Co-creation with clients of hotel services: the moderating role of top management support

Hotels can strengthen their competitiveness by expanding their innovation process beyond the boundaries of the firm to exploit the valuable knowledge and skills of their customers. This study examines the effects of new service (NS) co-creation with customers in the hotel industry on NS performance, as well as the moderating role of top management support. The research also explores the main barriers faced by hotels to co-create service innovations. Partial least squares structural equation modelling results indicate that Customer co-creation exerts a direct impact on NS market outcomes and NS development (NSD) speed, which in turn favours NS quality. NS quality translates into better NS customer-related outcomes as well as in improved NS market outcomes. Top management support enhances the effect of Customer co-creation on the NSD speed. The main barrier to NS co-creation in hotels is to find customers interested in devoting time to this activity or with the appropriate knowledge and experience.     

高速铁路建设对知识密集型服务业发展的影响：一个实证

知识和创新溢出存在空间壁垒，高速铁路能打破区域空间阻隔，缩小时空距离，促进以知识和创新为显著特征的知识密集型产业发展。构建2006-2015年省级面板数据，使用固定效应模型，从区域层面和细分产业层面研究高速铁路建设对我国知识密集型服务业发展的影响。结果发现，高速铁路建设与我国知识密集型服务业从业人员数量增加呈显著正相关关系；对东部地区知识密集型服务业发展影响不够显著，但对中西部地区知识密集型服务业固定资产投资起显著促进作用。这表明，高速铁路修建改善了区域投资环境，打破了区域阻隔，有助于增进知识溢出效应、加速要素流动，对中西部地区知识密集型服务业发展和产业升级具有重要意义，进一步证实在中西部地区建设高速路具有正确性和必要性。     

Is faster or slower trading better? An examination of order type execution speed and costs

We examine order type execution speed and costs for US equity traders. Marketable orders that execute slower exhibit lower execution costs. Those who remove liquidity faster and pay higher trading costs transact in smaller size, spread trading across more venues, take more liquidity, and are better informed. Nonmarketable limit orders that execute slower exhibit greater adverse selection; and larger, uninformed traders who concentrate their trading in fewer venues submit them. Our findings suggest that slowing down the trading process, when faster options exist, can benefit certain market participants who seek to cross the bid–ask spread.     

Probabilistic wind forecasting up to three months ahead using ensemble predictions for geopotential height

We develop a method for forecasting the distribution of the daily surface wind speed at timescales from 15-days to 3-months in France. On such long-term timescales, ensemble predictions of the surface wind speed have poor performance, however, the wind speed distribution may be related to the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere, for which the ensemble forecasts have better skill. The information from the large-scale circulation, represented by the 500 hPa geopotential height, is summarized into a single index by first running a PCA and then a polynomial regression. We estimate, over 20 years of daily data, the conditional probability density of the wind speed at a specific location given the index. We then use the ECMWF seasonal forecast ensemble to predict the index for horizons from 15-days to 3-months. These predictions are plugged into the conditional density to obtain a distributional forecast of surface wind. These probabilistic forecasts remain sharper than the climatology up to 1-month forecast horizon. Using a statistical postprocessing method to recalibrate the ensemble leads to further improvement of our probabilistic forecast, which then remains calibrated and sharper than the climatology up to 3-months horizon, particularly in the north of France in winter and fall.     

新型Ka频段宽角扫描圆极化相控阵天线

提出了一种新型的Ka频段圆极化相控阵天线。天线单元以单馈电开槽贴片天线为基础实现圆极化，通过微带贴片表面加载介质和辅助辐射器，展宽了天线波束宽度并优化了单元轴比。以该天线为阵列单元，采用顺序旋转布阵技术优化得到的2×2子阵，其辐射方向图具有良好的旋转对称性，由该子阵扩展形成的相控阵天线，有效地实现了圆极化宽角扫描特性。以8×8矩形阵列为例，仿真分析了此类二维相控阵天线波束扫描过程中的方向图和极化特性。研究结果表明，天线在工作频段内可实现方位360°、俯仰±60°扫描，扫描范围内天线增益波动和轴比均小于3 dB，同时该天线具有低剖面（高度尺寸为0.08λ0，λ0为空气介质波长）、结构简单、易于加工和集成等特点，非常适合小型化或一体化相控阵天线系统应用。     

微纳卫星组网星间链路设计及关键技术分析

微纳卫星组网应用可大幅度提高航天装备的能力，较单颗大卫星具有明显的优势。首先，介绍了国内外微纳卫星组网的研究情况，以组网侦察应用为例分析了星间测量与通信链路的技术需求，并进行了系统架构和体制设计；其次，在星座设计基础上开展系统仿真，并提出了一体化设备实现方案；最后，分析了微纳卫星组网系统中几项重要的关键技术及其解决方案，对系统的设计和工程实现具有参考价值。     

Promotion and Prevention Contracts in Industry Level Firm to Firm Dyad

ABSTRACT

Purpose

This article aims to introduce and distinguish two features of contract design – prevention and promotion contracts – and compares their effects on opportunism within the distributor–supplier relationship. It also examines the moderating role of ex post contract enforcement strategies.     

Internationalization speed and subsidiary survival of EMNCs: The moderating roles of CEO international experience and state ownership

In the process of internationalization, effective management of dispersed location-specific knowledge is the key to successful internationalization strategies for companies. Rapid internationalization often prevents multinational corporations (MNCs) from absorbing and internalizing internationalized knowledge in a timely manner and achieving ideal performance. Compared with MNCs in developed countries, emerging market multinationals (EMNCs) are more inclined to implement a rapid internationalization strategy to enhance their own competitive advantage. However, their internationalization process is limited by their lack of managerial resources. Why and how would internationalization speed impact the survival of EMNCs Subsidiary? Using the survival analysis method and taking the Chinese A-share listed companies as empirical setting, our results show that the internationalization speed negatively affects the survival of EMNCs Subsidiary; Both CEO international experience and state ownership weaken the negative impact of internationalization speed on the survival of EMNCs Subsidiary. We argue that rapid internationalization underestimates the Penrose effect in the process of internationalization, that is, underestimates the managerial resources required to learn and accumulate absorptive capacity, and effectively manage dispersed knowledge. Based on the dual context of dispersed knowledge management and managerial constraints, this paper expands the understanding of the impact mechanism of internationalization speed on corporate performance, and also has certain guiding significance for the selection of internationalization speed of EMNCs.