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1.
The construction of an importance density for partially non‐Gaussian state space models is crucial when simulation methods are used for likelihood evaluation, signal extraction, and forecasting. The method of efficient importance sampling is successful in this respect, but we show that it can be implemented in a computationally more efficient manner using standard Kalman filter and smoothing methods. Efficient importance sampling is generally applicable for a wide range of models, but it is typically a custom‐built procedure. For the class of partially non‐Gaussian state space models, we present a general method for efficient importance sampling. Our novel method makes the efficient importance sampling methodology more accessible because it does not require the computation of a (possibly) complicated density kernel that needs to be tracked for each time period. The new method is illustrated for a stochastic volatility model with a Student's t distribution.  相似文献   
2.
Small area estimation (SAE) entails estimating characteristics of interest for domains, often geographical areas, in which there may be few or no samples available. SAE has a long history and a wide variety of methods have been suggested, from a bewildering range of philosophical standpoints. We describe design-based and model-based approaches and models that are specified at the area level and at the unit level, focusing on health applications and fully Bayesian spatial models. The use of auxiliary information is a key ingredient for successful inference when response data are sparse, and we discuss a number of approaches that allow the inclusion of covariate data. SAE for HIV prevalence, using data collected from a Demographic Health Survey in Malawi in 2015–2016, is used to illustrate a number of techniques. The potential use of SAE techniques for outcomes related to coronavirus disease 2019 is discussed.  相似文献   
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4.
Labor unemployment insurance reduces unemployment concerns. We argue that these benefits moderate incentives to smooth earnings to reduce employees’ concerns about unemployment risk. Using exogenous variations in unemployment insurance benefits, we find evidence consistent with this argument. We also find that the link between unemployment insurance benefits and income smoothing is stronger when there is higher unemployment risk and when the firm is likely to employ more low-wage workers, who find unemployment insurance benefits especially useful. Our paper contributes to the literature by showing that public policy decisions such as unemployment insurance have significant, albeit probably unintended, externalities on corporate financial reporting.  相似文献   
5.
Identifying the most appropriate time series model to achieve a good forecasting accuracy is a challenging task. We propose a novel algorithm that aims to mitigate the importance of model selection, while increasing the accuracy. Multiple time series are constructed from the original time series, using temporal aggregation. These derivative series highlight different aspects of the original data, as temporal aggregation helps in strengthening or attenuating the signals of different time series components. In each series, the appropriate exponential smoothing method is fitted and its respective time series components are forecast. Subsequently, the time series components from each aggregation level are combined, then used to construct the final forecast. This approach achieves a better estimation of the different time series components, through temporal aggregation, and reduces the importance of model selection through forecast combination. An empirical evaluation of the proposed framework demonstrates significant improvements in forecasting accuracy, especially for long-term forecasts.  相似文献   
6.
This article presents an intertemporal model of production with multiple inputs to investigate substitution opportunities facing firms over time. The firm’s intertemporal profit maximization problem is characterized with the familiar cost function, and various intertemporal substitution elasticities are delineated for output supply and input demand. The absence of intertemporal substitution in production can imply production smoothing, and allowance for intertemporal substitution in labour demand reinforces the prediction of the real business cycle model. For aggregate US manufacturing, we find substantial substitution in output supply and labour demand over time due to intertemporal changes in output price and wage rates.  相似文献   
7.
Corporate income smoothing has been the focus of much attention, yet relatively little is known about the key characteristics of income-smoothing firms. To address this issue, the current study uses quarterly data with Census X-12 analysis in a novel way to identify firms where the degree of random variability in earnings is less than the degree of random variability in sales (EVAR < SVAR). Prior research views such firms as effective smoothers, since most firms have scale-free variability profiles in the opposite direction (EVAR > SVAR). Large-sample US results identify these exceptions throughout a broad cross section of firms, but smaller and less profitable firms tended to have a higher incidence rate. Results also indicate that effective smoothers exhibited higher earnings persistence.  相似文献   
8.
Mijatovi? and Pistorius proposed an efficient Markov chain approximation method for pricing European and barrier options in general one‐dimensional Markovian models. However, sharp convergence rates of this method for realistic financial payoffs, which are nonsmooth, are rarely available. In this paper, we solve this problem for general one‐dimensional diffusion models, which play a fundamental role in financial applications. For such models, the Markov chain approximation method is equivalent to the method of lines using the central difference. Our analysis is based on the spectral representation of the exact solution and the approximate solution. By establishing the convergence rate for the eigenvalues and the eigenfunctions, we obtain sharp convergence rates for the transition density and the price of options with nonsmooth payoffs. In particular, we show that for call‐/put‐type payoffs, convergence is second order, while for digital‐type payoffs, convergence is generally only first order. Furthermore, we provide theoretical justification for two well‐known smoothing techniques that can restore second‐order convergence for digital‐type payoffs and explain oscillations observed in the convergence for options with nonsmooth payoffs. As an extension, we also establish sharp convergence rates for European options for a rich class of Markovian jump models constructed from diffusions via subordination. The theoretical estimates are confirmed using numerical examples.  相似文献   
9.
以哈尔滨市2000—2015年的城市人均住房使用面积和总人口数为基础,分别对总人口数建立三次指数平滑法模型,对人均住房使用面积建立二次指数平滑法模型,预测出哈尔滨市未来五年总人口数和人均住房使用面积,将总人口数和人均住房使用面积的预测结果代入M-W优化后的预测模型,更加精准的预测出了哈尔滨市未来五年的住房需求量,并对此提出对策和建议。  相似文献   
10.
选取2003—2012年中国工业废水中的5类污染物,对工业废水污染物和城镇化率的关系进行库兹涅茨曲线拟合,并在此基础上采用3次指数平滑法对工业废水污染物的排放量进行预测。结果表明:随着城镇化建设的加快,我国工业废水污染物中石油类和铅的排放量呈现先下降后上升的趋势,但化学需氧量、氨氮和挥发酚等污染物却不符合典型的环境库兹涅茨曲线形状。预计到2020年,化学需氧量和氨氮的排放量将呈现负值,而挥发酚、石油类和铅的排放量将急剧增加。  相似文献   
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