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1.
Predicting consumption behavior is very important for adjusting supplier production plans and enterprise marketing activities. Conventional statistical methods are unable to accurately predict green consumption behavior because it is characterized by multivariate nonlinear interactions. The paper proposes an optimized fruit fly algorithm (FOA) and extreme learning machine (ELM) model for consumption behavior prediction. First, to address the problem of uneven search direction of FOA leading to insufficient search ability and low efficiency, the paper proposes a sector search mechanism instead of a random search mechanism to improve the global search ability and convergence speed of FOA. Second, to address the issue that the initial weights and hidden layer bias values of the ELM are randomly generated, which affects the learning efficiency and generalization of the ELM, the paper uses an improved FOA to optimize the weights and bias values of ELM for improving the prediction accuracy. Taking the green vegetable consumption behavior of Beijing residents as an example, the results show the optimization of the initial weight and threshold of ELM by the GA, PSO, FOA, and SFOA, the prediction accuracy of the GA-ELM, PSO-ELM, FOA-ELM, and SFOA-ELM models all surpass those of ELM. Compared with BPNN, GRNN, ELM, GA-ELM, PSO-ELM, and FOA-ELM models, the RMSE value of SFOA-ELM was decreased by 9.45%, 8.40%, 11.89%, 5.84%, 2.22%, and 2.69%, respectively. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the SFOA-ELM model in green consumption behavior prediction and provide new ideas for the accurate prediction of consumption behaviors of other green products with similar characteristics. 相似文献
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Cancellations are a key aspect of hotel revenue management because of their impact on room reservation systems. In fact, very little is known about the reasons that lead customers to cancel, or how it can be avoided. The aim of this paper is to propose a means of enabling the forecasting of hotel booking cancellations using only 13 independent variables, a reduced number in comparison with related research in the area, which in addition coincide with those that are most often requested by customers when they place a reservation. For this matter, machine-learning techniques, among other artificial neural networks optimised with genetic algorithms were applied achieving a cancellation rate of up to 98%. The proposed methodology allows us not only to know about cancellation rates, but also to identify which customer is likely to cancel. This approach would mean organisations could strengthen their action protocols regarding tourist arrivals. 相似文献
4.
维护方式选择是维护管理中的重要工作之一,合理的维护方式既能达到保障设备的稳定运行,又能同时兼顾其它各个方面的要求。由于对维护方式的评价涉及多个部门、人员和属性,有些指标只是一个模糊的概念,因而采用模糊多属性群决策的方法对维护方式进行优先抉择。本文结合A公司的设备维护方式选择问题,尝试使用模糊多属性群决策折衷算法求解最佳的维护方式。 相似文献
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The estimation of the parameters of a continuous-time Markov chain from discrete-time observations, also known as the embedding problem for Markov chains, plays in particular an important role for the modeling of credit rating transitions. This missing data problem boils down to a latent variable setting and thus, maximum likelihood estimation is usually conducted using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. We illustrate that the EM algorithm is likely to get stuck in local maxima of the likelihood function in this specific problem setting and adapt a stochastic approximation simulated annealing scheme (SASEM) as well as a genetic algorithm (GA) to combat this issue. Above that, our main contribution is to extend our method GA by a rejection sampling scheme, which allows one to derive stochastic monotone maximum likelihood estimates in order to obtain proper (non-crossing) multi-year probabilities of default. We advocate the use of this procedure as direct constrained optimization (of the likelihood function) will not be numerically stable due to the large number of side conditions. Furthermore, the monotonicity constraint enables one to combine structural knowledge of the ordinality of credit ratings with real-life data into a statistical estimator, which has a stabilizing effect on far off-diagonal generator matrix elements. We illustrate our methods by Standard and Poor’s credit rating data as well as a simulation study and benchmark our novel procedure against an already existing smoothing algorithm. 相似文献
6.
针对无线传感器网络分簇算法中能量分布不均衡导致的"热区"和簇头负载过重问题,提出了一种基于PSO算法优化簇头选举的非均匀分簇算法。在候选簇头选举和竞争半径计算过程中综合考虑节点动态能量、节点密度和节点距基站距离,将网络进行非均匀分簇,并引入PSO算法进行最终簇头选举。根据节点能量、节点密度和距基站距离确定簇间单跳多跳结合的路由规则,选取代价函数小的节点作为下一跳节点。基于节点信息熵确定融合阈值,进行簇内数据融合剔除冗余数据。仿真结果表明,改进算法的数据传输量比EEUC算法和UCRA算法分别提高了20%和10%,提升了数据的融合效率,有效延长了网络生命周期,簇头能量消耗得到均衡,减少了网络能量消耗,网络的整体性能显著优于其他对比算法。 相似文献
7.
Ayman E. Khedr Amira M. Idrees Abd El-Fatah Hegazy Samir El-Shewy 《Enterprise Information Systems》2018,12(2):196-217
This study presents a configurable approach for recommendations which determines the suitable recommendation method for each field based on the characteristics of its data, the method includes determining the suitable technique for selecting a representative sample of the provided data. Then selecting the suitable feature weighting measure to provide a correct weight for each feature based on its effect on the recommendations. Finally, selecting the suitable algorithm to provide the required recommendations. The proposed configurable approach could be applied on different domains. The experiments have revealed that the approach is able to provide recommendations with only 0.89 error rate percentage. 相似文献
8.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2021,37(4):1399-1425
Dynamic factor models have been the main “big data” tool used by empirical macroeconomists during the last 30 years. In this context, Kalman filter and smoothing (KFS) procedures can cope with missing data, mixed frequency data, time-varying parameters, non-linearities, non-stationarity, and many other characteristics often observed in real systems of economic variables. The main contribution of this paper is to provide a comprehensive updated summary of the literature on latent common factors extracted using KFS procedures in the context of dynamic factor models, pointing out their potential limitations. Signal extraction and parameter estimation issues are separately analyzed. Identification issues are also tackled in both stationary and non-stationary models. Finally, empirical applications are surveyed in both cases. This survey is relevant to researchers and practitioners interested not only in the theory of KFS procedures for factor extraction in dynamic factor models but also in their empirical application in macroeconomics and finance. 相似文献
9.
This study introduces an optimal capacity and operation design of a robot logistics system that can reduce human workload in the hotel industry. In hotels, there are several duties that can be replaced by robots such as accompanying guests to the certain areas, delivering specific items to the guest rooms, and transporting some items that guests want to be removed from the guest rooms. To apply the robot logistics system in the hotel industry, the capacity and operation design should be prepared adequately. For that, a mathematical model-based optimization technique is used to decide the number of robots with the concept of minimizing total investment cost and to derive the optimal job assigning with the purpose of maximizing total covered jobs. In addition, a numerical example is performed to validate the proposed mathematical model and the sensitivity tests are examined to reflect the random features. 相似文献
10.
将K-means聚类算法应用到无线局域网(WLAN)位置指纹定位中,虽然可以缩短定位时间,但是容易降低定位精度。为了解决此问题,提出了基于改进指纹聚类的WLAN定位优化方法。首先根据接收信号强度标准差来优化初始聚类中心的选取,然后对指纹数据进行聚类处理,最后进行在线定位。实验结果表明,与传统的WLAN位置指纹定位方法和K-means聚类定位方法相比,基于改进指纹聚类的定位优化方法不仅缩短了定位时间,还能有效提高定位精度。 相似文献