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1.
史薇  周强 《科学决策》2019,(11):83-98
本文基于第三期全国妇女社会地位调查老年专项调查数据, 使用倾向值分析和工具变量方法,研究老年协会参与对老年虐待的影响及其作用机制。研究发现老年协会参与能有效抑制老年虐待。从作用机制来看,老年人在家庭私人生活领域之外的社会参与程度越高,参加文娱活动、志愿服务、互帮互惠等社会交往活动越频繁,法律意识越强,遭受家庭成员虐待的风险越小。但是目前广大老年人群特别是非精英的普通弱势老年人参加各类社会组织的积极性和广泛性还不够。对此,政府有关部门应强化城乡基层老年社会组织建设,为广大老年群体尤其是普通老人积极参与创造条件。针对家庭赡养中的虐老问题,老年社会组织应从法律、社会治理等方面开展鉴别、预防和干预工作,提升老年人法律素养,实施家庭支持策略强化延续家庭养老功能,维护弱势老年人合法权益。  相似文献   
2.
Destination competitiveness is the ability to sustain or improve market position and market share of a destination over a period of time. Different markets have different expectations which increase the importance of features a destination should provide in order to achieve competitive advantage. The results of this study show that the domestic model of Iran’s destinations competitiveness comprises 9 major indices. These indices are made of 64 variables which have been derived from literature reviews and qualitative surveys. The results of running the model for all selected destinations are consistent with the destinations’ tourist statistics except for one destination (Qom).  相似文献   
3.
本文以制造业上市公司为研究对象,从收入动因成本中分解出收入动因固定成本和收入动因变动成本,进而计算出习性成本结构指标、保本点指标以及经营安全程度(安全边际率)指标。通过习性成本结构和经营安全程度分析可以得出以下研究结论:(1)以收入动因成本和营业净收入为基础进行的习性成本结构和经营安全程度分析是合理的、可靠的;(2)制造业整体上变动成本比重较高,行业整体营业净收入中变动成本比重为89.44%;(3)制造业整体经营风险较低,行业整体安全边际率为77.71%,处于“很安全”的范围。  相似文献   
4.
This study explores the cost-reduction effects of local government consolidation, using data from Japanese municipalities. We use municipal panel data from Japan for the years 2000, 2005 and 2010, a data set including numerous consolidation cases. Reverse causality between consolidation decisions and size of municipal expenditure is a concern in the voluntary consolidation of local governments. An instrumental variable (IV) methodology is employed to deal with possible endogeneity associated with consolidation decisions. The main finding is that municipal current expenditure per capita increases immediately after consolidation, but then gradually declines. Because consolidation seems to increase per capita expenditure in the absence of the effect of this long-term declining trend, incorporating this trend into estimation is crucial in cost-efficiency analysis of consolidation. It is also shown that conventional panel data regressions yield biased consolidation effects, suggesting the superiority of the IV approach.  相似文献   
5.
Using an instrumental variable quantile regression technique, this paper assesses whether country risk and financial uncertainty exert an impact on energy commodity futures prices under different commodity conditional return distributions over the period from January 1994 to July 2017. We also discuss whether the correlations change with different dimensions of country risk, that is economic, financial, and political. The results reveal that country risk and financial stress do have a significant impact on energy commodity returns of futures contracts with different maturities, but their direction, intensity, and significance differ, caused by the distinct market situations and divergent channels of country risk.  相似文献   
6.
电影产业在我国经济发展中的作用日益显著,电影市场与我国宏观经济发展的内在联系有待深入研究。选取2012年1月到2018年3月我国周度电影票房收入增速作为高频解释变量,采用自回归分布滞后混频数据抽样模型(ADL-MIDAS)分析其与季度GDP增速及月度制造业PMI增速之间的关系,结果表明:电影票房收入增速与GDP增速和制造业PMI增速之间具有负向相关关系,我国电影市场存在“口红效应”,可以根据电影票房收入增长情况对宏观经济走势做出预判。对多种模型的比较结果显示,加入电影票房收入可以显著提高GDP预测精度,电影票房收入可以作为GDP预测指标体系的有益补充。  相似文献   
7.
通用机场正处于难得的历史机遇期.为了促进其健康发展,从根本上改进通用机场可能存在的安全漏洞,着重分析了通用机场的运行安全特性,强化过程管理,构建安全保障能力评价指标体系,将变权综合法应用到该评价中,计算出评价体系的综合评价值,并通过实例验证该方法的可行性.研究成果可为中国通用机场提升安全管理水平提供参考.  相似文献   
8.
利用辐射源目标的频移动态特征进行盲分选时,针对已有的分选方法不能很好解决非合作接收数据非周期、间断、交叠的问题,提出了一种改进的逻辑回归分选算法,将信号分选转化为轨迹分类的问题来处理。首先,借鉴多目标航迹起始模型中的M/N逻辑法的框架,设计新的数据关联门限,以建立目标起始曲线;其次,采用最小二乘拟合方法替代卡尔曼滤波,设计新的外推规则,建立载频变化预测曲线;分析新的接收数据与预测曲线的关联性,不断迭代回归或形成新的分支,最后获得目标分选结果。仿真与实测试验表明,利用逻辑回归分选算法,对不同运动目标搭载的同频辐射源可进行自动分选,4个仿真目标与2个真实目标的分选正确率达到100%。同时,该方法拓展了辐射源目标盲分选中的动态频移特征应用,为辐射源个体识别提供了新的支持。  相似文献   
9.
This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on fiscal balances in a panel of 142 countries over the period 1985–2015. Our instrumental variable strategy exploits the geographical diffusion of fiscal rules across countries. The intuition is that reforms in neighboring countries may affect the adoption of domestic reforms through peer pressure and imitational effects. We find that the mere existence of fiscal rules correlates with lower deficits, but the positive link disappears when endogeneity is correctly addressed. However, when considering the strength of rules through a continuous index of fiscal rules’ design, we show that well-designed rules have a statistically significant impact on fiscal balances. We conduct several robustness tests and show that our results are generally robust and not affected by weak instrument problems.  相似文献   
10.
This article estimates agglomeration effects via calculating EG (Elilsion & Glaeser) and TFP growth (Total Factor Production) by considering the undesired output of the industrial enterprise database and the entropy weight method. Using panel data of 207 county-level cities in China and 28 two-digit manufacturing industries from 2003 to 2013 based on SIC codes, this paper analyzes the relationship between agglomeration and TFP growth through the smooth transition model under different regions and factor-intensity. The results are as follows. (1) A negative relationship appears in manufacturing productivity. The agglomeration effect changes to the crowded effect. Environmental pollution is also generated by transportation and inadequate pollution treatment technology. (2) The excessive agglomeration phenomenon of developed areas (eastern region) is less than the less developed areas (central and western regions). (3) Resource-intensity industries present two thresholds that indicate complex regional features. For various intensive industries in different regions, the relationship between GML and agglomeration is different. High agglomeration does not always promote TFP growth. (4) At different levels of urban industrial agglomeration, the influences of efficiency change and technical change on GML are different. Overall, moderate agglomeration in all regions helps promote economic development.  相似文献   
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