Preventing motor vehicle crash injuries and deaths: science vs. folklore lessons from history

Abstract

Not long after the beginnings of motorization in the early 1900s, deaths and injuries from motor vehicle crashes became a problem in a number of high-income-countries (HIC)s, especially the United States. With the biggest problem the US led early efforts to address this issue, and for six decades these efforts were based on folklore (ie a body of widely held but false or unsubstantiated beliefs). They were not evaluated, but clearly were unsuccessful as crash deaths and injuries continued to rise. It was not until the 1970s that a broader range of countermeasures began to be adopted and was scientifically evaluated, and as a result, crash deaths and injuries declined. This history has important lessons today for many low-and-middle-income countries that have growing numbers of motor vehicle crash deaths and injuries, many of which are pedestrians and motorcyclists. This is because there continue to be advocates for many of the failed approaches (especially educational) that dominated the early efforts in HICs.     

Designing a Model for Competitiveness Measurement of Selected Tourism Destinations of Iran (The Model and Rankings)

Destination competitiveness is the ability to sustain or improve market position and market share of a destination over a period of time. Different markets have different expectations which increase the importance of features a destination should provide in order to achieve competitive advantage. The results of this study show that the domestic model of Iran’s destinations competitiveness comprises 9 major indices. These indices are made of 64 variables which have been derived from literature reviews and qualitative surveys. The results of running the model for all selected destinations are consistent with the destinations’ tourist statistics except for one destination (Qom).     

Examining the relationship between municipal consolidation and cost reduction: an instrumental variable approach

This study explores the cost-reduction effects of local government consolidation, using data from Japanese municipalities. We use municipal panel data from Japan for the years 2000, 2005 and 2010, a data set including numerous consolidation cases. Reverse causality between consolidation decisions and size of municipal expenditure is a concern in the voluntary consolidation of local governments. An instrumental variable (IV) methodology is employed to deal with possible endogeneity associated with consolidation decisions. The main finding is that municipal current expenditure per capita increases immediately after consolidation, but then gradually declines. Because consolidation seems to increase per capita expenditure in the absence of the effect of this long-term declining trend, incorporating this trend into estimation is crucial in cost-efficiency analysis of consolidation. It is also shown that conventional panel data regressions yield biased consolidation effects, suggesting the superiority of the IV approach.     

Do country risk and financial uncertainty matter for energy commodity futures?

Using an instrumental variable quantile regression technique, this paper assesses whether country risk and financial uncertainty exert an impact on energy commodity futures prices under different commodity conditional return distributions over the period from January 1994 to July 2017. We also discuss whether the correlations change with different dimensions of country risk, that is economic, financial, and political. The results reveal that country risk and financial stress do have a significant impact on energy commodity returns of futures contracts with different maturities, but their direction, intensity, and significance differ, caused by the distinct market situations and divergent channels of country risk.     

高速铁路建设对知识密集型服务业发展的影响：一个实证

知识和创新溢出存在空间壁垒，高速铁路能打破区域空间阻隔，缩小时空距离，促进以知识和创新为显著特征的知识密集型产业发展。构建2006-2015年省级面板数据，使用固定效应模型，从区域层面和细分产业层面研究高速铁路建设对我国知识密集型服务业发展的影响。结果发现，高速铁路建设与我国知识密集型服务业从业人员数量增加呈显著正相关关系；对东部地区知识密集型服务业发展影响不够显著，但对中西部地区知识密集型服务业固定资产投资起显著促进作用。这表明，高速铁路修建改善了区域投资环境，打破了区域阻隔，有助于增进知识溢出效应、加速要素流动，对中西部地区知识密集型服务业发展和产业升级具有重要意义，进一步证实在中西部地区建设高速路具有正确性和必要性。     

我国电影票房收入增长对GDP增速的预测作用——基于混频数据抽样模型的实证分析

电影产业在我国经济发展中的作用日益显著，电影市场与我国宏观经济发展的内在联系有待深入研究。选取2012年1月到2018年3月我国周度电影票房收入增速作为高频解释变量，采用自回归分布滞后混频数据抽样模型（ADL-MIDAS）分析其与季度GDP增速及月度制造业PMI增速之间的关系，结果表明：电影票房收入增速与GDP增速和制造业PMI增速之间具有负向相关关系，我国电影市场存在“口红效应”，可以根据电影票房收入增长情况对宏观经济走势做出预判。对多种模型的比较结果显示，加入电影票房收入可以显著提高GDP预测精度，电影票房收入可以作为GDP预测指标体系的有益补充。     

Promotion and Prevention Contracts in Industry Level Firm to Firm Dyad

ABSTRACT

Purpose

This article aims to introduce and distinguish two features of contract design – prevention and promotion contracts – and compares their effects on opportunism within the distributor–supplier relationship. It also examines the moderating role of ex post contract enforcement strategies.     

微纳卫星组网星间链路设计及关键技术分析

微纳卫星组网应用可大幅度提高航天装备的能力，较单颗大卫星具有明显的优势。首先，介绍了国内外微纳卫星组网的研究情况，以组网侦察应用为例分析了星间测量与通信链路的技术需求，并进行了系统架构和体制设计；其次，在星座设计基础上开展系统仿真，并提出了一体化设备实现方案；最后，分析了微纳卫星组网系统中几项重要的关键技术及其解决方案，对系统的设计和工程实现具有参考价值。     

利用频移动态特征的辐射源目标盲分选

利用辐射源目标的频移动态特征进行盲分选时，针对已有的分选方法不能很好解决非合作接收数据非周期、间断、交叠的问题，提出了一种改进的逻辑回归分选算法,将信号分选转化为轨迹分类的问题来处理。首先，借鉴多目标航迹起始模型中的M/N逻辑法的框架，设计新的数据关联门限，以建立目标起始曲线；其次，采用最小二乘拟合方法替代卡尔曼滤波，设计新的外推规则，建立载频变化预测曲线；分析新的接收数据与预测曲线的关联性，不断迭代回归或形成新的分支，最后获得目标分选结果。仿真与实测试验表明，利用逻辑回归分选算法，对不同运动目标搭载的同频辐射源可进行自动分选，4个仿真目标与2个真实目标的分选正确率达到100%。同时，该方法拓展了辐射源目标盲分选中的动态频移特征应用，为辐射源个体识别提供了新的支持。     

Do fiscal rules cause better fiscal balances? A new instrumental variable strategy

This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on fiscal balances in a panel of 142 countries over the period 1985–2015. Our instrumental variable strategy exploits the geographical diffusion of fiscal rules across countries. The intuition is that reforms in neighboring countries may affect the adoption of domestic reforms through peer pressure and imitational effects. We find that the mere existence of fiscal rules correlates with lower deficits, but the positive link disappears when endogeneity is correctly addressed. However, when considering the strength of rules through a continuous index of fiscal rules’ design, we show that well-designed rules have a statistically significant impact on fiscal balances. We conduct several robustness tests and show that our results are generally robust and not affected by weak instrument problems.