A functional time series analysis of forward curves derived from commodity futures

We study forward curves formed from commodity futures prices listed on the Standard and Poor’s-Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (S&P GSCI) using recently developed tools in functional time series analysis. Functional tests for stationarity and serial correlation suggest that log-differenced forward curves may be generally considered as stationary and conditionally heteroscedastic sequences of functions. Several functional methods for forecasting forward curves that more accurately reflect the time to expiry of contracts are developed, and we found that these typically outperformed their multivariate counterparts, with the best among them using the method of predictive factors introduced by Kargin and Onatski (2008).     

Robust multivariate analysis for mixed-type data: Novel algorithm and its practical application in socio-economic research

We propose a novel method and algorithm for the analysis and clustering of mixed-type data using a hierarchical approach based on Forward Search. In our procedure, the identification of groups is based on the identification of similar trajectories and then linked to very intuitive two-dimensional maps. The proposed algorithm can use different measures for the calculation of distance in the case of mixed-type data, such as Gower’s metric and Related metric scaling. A key feature of our algorithm is its ability to discard redundant information from a given set of variables. The practical usefulness of the algorithm is illustrated through two applications of high relevance for empirical economic research. The first one focuses on comparing different indicators of environmental policy stringency in different countries. The second one applies our procedure to identify clusters of countries based on information regarding their institutional characteristics.     

Extreme Uncertainty and Forward‐looking Disclosure Properties

This study investigates the effect of extreme uncertainty on disclosure behaviour by analyzing the quality and quantity of forward‐looking disclosures during the global financial crisis and pre‐crisis periods, controlling for other determinants of disclosure behaviour. Prior research has struggled to distinguish between the quality and quantity dimensions of forward‐looking disclosures. Also, the impact of the recent financial crisis on these forward‐looking disclosure attributes has not yet been examined systematically. We address this gap by exploiting the unique setting of German publicly traded firms. These firms must provide forward‐looking information within their audited financial statements, although relevant regulation is sufficiently vague to allow great variation in the quality, scope and quantity of forward‐looking disclosures actually observed. Using hand‐collected data from 2005 to 2009, we provide evidence of a significantly negative association between crisis and disclosure quality. This finding is robust to several different disclosure quality proxies and regression specifications. In contrast, we find no negative significant relation between crisis and disclosure quantity; rather, there is evidence that reported volume increases during the crisis. Our results are consistent with extreme uncertainty, as occurring during times of crisis, negatively affecting the quality of voluntary disclosures, while firms maintain or increase disclosure quantity, ultimately diluting the information density of forward‐looking disclosures.     

印度小额信贷的发展及启示

印度小额信贷的发展主要是以自助团体为基础的联系银行计划(LBP)所推动。小额信贷联系银行计划(LBP)的运作关键在于组建自助团体,建立自助团体与银行的联系。经过十多年的发展,印度拥有了发展中国家最大和成长最快的小额信贷项目。中国与印度都是发展中的人口大国,剖析印度小额信贷的经验可以为我国小额信贷的发展提供重要启示。     

浙江省原发型企业集群与FDI的关联效率研究

本文在提出并论证独特技术型和小规模技术型两种原发型企业集群的基础上,从原发型企业集群与FDI之间技术水平是否对接、产业是否同构、FDI来源地决定的FDI属性等方面,对浙江企业集群与外资的关联性进行了理论研究,并利用可得到的投入-产出数据,从产业感应度和产业影响力两方面,实证分析了浙江原发型企业集群与FDI的关联效率,发现浙江原发型企业集群的内源性竞争力影响了FDI的流入。     

Intellectual property rights in a quality-ladder model with persistent leadership

This paper analyzes the effects of intellectual property rights in a quality-ladder model of endogenous growth in which incumbent firms preemptively innovate in order to keep their position of leadership. Unlike in models with leapfrogging, granting forward protection, and imposing a non-obviousness requirement reduces growth. In the main case where entrants and incumbents have free access to the same R&D technology, infinite protection against imitation, granted independently of the size of the lead, maximizes growth. If entrants have to engage in costly catch up before they can undertake frontier R&D, growth is maximal for a finite (expected) length of protection against imitation.     

Liquidity shocks: A new solution to the forward premium puzzle

The frequent empirical failure of uncovered interest rate parity raises a question that has not been definitively answered: why do predictable excess returns on currencies persist in competitive currency markets? Supported by data from nine major currencies for 1978:08–2019:09, I provide a novel resolution to this enduring forward premium puzzle by building on the financial economics literature that explores the economic implications of limited access to capital markets. A liquidity shock, or the urgent demand for liquidity by credit-constrained arbitragers liquidating bond holdings, causes losses from sudden drops in bond prices. Arbitragers require a liquidity premium to compensate for potential losses that vary directly with the interest rate. It is this liquidity premium that explains persistent excess returns on currencies. I argue for policies favoring a low interest rate environment and macroprudential controls that ease liquidity constraints to increase the efficiency of international capital markets by reducing the liquidity premium.     

仿制药专利挑战机制解释学分析与进路选择

仿制药专利挑战机制是我国药品专利链接制度的核心环节。在现有规范体系下进行制度构建，存在同现行《专利法》抵触的问题，通过立法或释法活动化解这种冲突具有必要性。在解释学范式下对仿制药品专利挑战侵权拟制、侵权解释两种立法进路进行推演和反思，并辅之以制度体系、国际比较、法律政策、经济分析等视角，可得出拟制进路更为可行的结论。在拟制进路下进行制度构建，应遵循法律拟制技术规范，并妥善处理制度配套问题。     

Valuation of forward start options under affine jump-diffusion models

Under the general affine jump-diffusion framework of Duffie et al. [Econometrica, 2000, 68, 1343–1376], this paper proposes an alternative pricing methodology for European-style forward start options that does not require any parallel optimization routine to ensure square integrability. Therefore, the proposed methodology is shown to possess a better accuracy–efficiency trade-off than the usual and more general approach initiated by Hong [Forward Smile and Derivative Pricing. Working paper, UBS, 2004] that is based on the knowledge of the forward characteristic function. Explicit pricing solutions are also offered under the nested jump-diffusion setting proposed by Bakshi et al. [J. Finance, 1997, 52, 2003–2049], which accommodates stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates, and different integration schemes are numerically tested.     

一种无人值守接力的靶场安控系统

本文论述了中国实行对外开放是邓小平和中国人民把握历史和时代发展规律作出的战略抉择并取得了巨大成就;分析总结了中国入世前对外开放的基本特征及其原因;重点探讨了中国入世后对外开放的新阶段、新特点及其应对措施,推动对外开放新阶段和开放型经济新发展。