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1.
This paper shows evidence that political booms, defined as the rise in governments’ popularity, are associated with a higher likelihood of currency crises. The reasoning behind this finding is that prudent economic policies to address underlying weaknesses in the economy may be political costly for incumbent governments in the short-term. Hence, popularity-concerned governments may not have enough incentives to take such corrective actions in a timely manner. This approach, in turn, can deteriorate economic fundamentals and increase related risks in the economy which can eventually lead to crises. This paper sheds light on this phenomenon in the case of currency crises, suggesting that currency crises can be viewed as “political booms gone bust” events. Moreover, it finds that higher international reserves, higher exports, and a higher degree of financial openness alleviate the effect of political booms on currency crises.  相似文献   
2.
We add to the ongoing discussion regarding the policy consequences of terrorism by analyzing the effect of terrorism on international economic policy for a panel of 170 countries between 1970 and 2016. We find that countries resort to less liberal international economic policies when facing the threat of terrorism. This effect is especially relevant to smaller (less populated) countries. Our main finding is robust to an instrumental-variable approach. We argue that governments pursue less liberal international economic policies in response to terrorism to interrupt the organization and financing of terrorism, limit capital flight, stabilize public finances and signal political resolve.  相似文献   
3.
长期以来,人们只看重货币国际化结果,以占全球贸易计价结算比重、外汇交易比重、国际债券比重、外汇储备比重等相关指标衡量一国货币的国际化程度,而忽视货币跨境流动放松过程,即一国货币的跨境流动自由化程度。货币国际化是一个过程又是一种结果,包含进程和结果两个层面,在货币国际化进程中,过早过快放松本币流出入会引发经济金融风险,某些情形下进程比结果更值得关注。构建人民币跨境自由度指数涉及强度赋值、项目设置和权重确定三方面内容。在梳理2019年第2季度前我国货币政策基础上,对2008年至2019年经常项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度、证券投资项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度以及资本项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度进行评估,并以美国近5年各项目下的资金流动平均占比为权重,构建了人民币跨境流动自由化指数,考察2008—2019年人民币跨境流动自由化程度,结果显示人民币国际化进展较快,跨境流动已得到很大程度放松,而且人民币流入自由程度显著高于流出自由度。我国人民币国际化进程应持续遵循先经常项目后资本项目、先流入后流出、先机构后个人、先大额后小额、先风险小项目后风险大项目的次序,提高人民币跨境流动的稳定性,降低无序流动的投机风险;严格管控证券投资、其他投资、衍生品项目下人民币跨境流动,并依据我国利率市场化程度、金融市场发达程度及审慎监管能力进行调整;大力提升经常项目的人民币结算比重,发展人民币离岸市场,提高非居民间的人民币使用频率和使用规模;充分评估各项目下人民币跨境流动和本外币兑换自由度,提高两者的协同匹配程度,降低因两者不匹配而产生的负面影响。  相似文献   
4.
Trade openness is an important determinant of the inflation process. The effect of trade openness on inflation, however, is still an issue of debate at both theoretical and empirical levels. This study tried to provide a contribution to the literature by examining the relationship between inflation and trade openness in Tunisia over the period 1975Q1-2015Q4 using a nonlinear model. The originality of this study stems from the fact that it is the first investigation considering both the Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with the Regime Shifts and Threshold Regression model. The linear model confirms the existence of a positive relationship between inflation and trade in Tunisia. Yet, considering the nonlinear model, trade openness growth and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation growth show a statistically significant negative link as long as the trade openness evolution does not exceed the threshold. Nevertheless, if the trade openness growth is higher than the threshold, integrating the trade positively affects CPI inflation. Furthermore, a positive influence of Money supply growth on this type of inflation was noticed in Tunisia in all the considered regimes proving the effect of monetary factors on inflation level. Consequently, trade openness could be used to control inflation in Tunisia.  相似文献   
5.
交通基础设施建设是地方政府招商引资的重要手段之一,但其对企业区位选择的影响具有异质性。基于中国地级市制造业细分行业层面的实证分析表明:本地交通基础设施建设对企业进入具有显著的促进效应,但该效应存在明显的区域异质性和产业异质性;相对于其他地区和产业,在贸易开放水平较高地区、沿海地区和交通网络中心地区,对交通依赖度较高的“交通密集型产业”、缴税较少和效率较低的“非期望产业”,本地交通基础设施建设具有更强的吸引企业进入效应;此外,本地交通基础设施建设和贸易开放均能促进企业进入,且两者的吸引企业进入效应是相互强化的。地方政府应重视交通基础设施对企业区位选择的差异性影响,促进交通基础设施建设与产业发展的联动协同;在积极推进本地交通基础设施建设的同时,协同改善影响营商环境的其他各种因素;积极对接国家交通网络布局,合理布局本地交通基础设施建设。  相似文献   
6.
7.
中国集体林产权制度改革回顾与展望   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
采用历史产权制度研究方法,利用详实的历史数据与信息,系统地分析改革开放以来中国集体林产权制度改革每个重要时期的改革内容与进程以及集体林地林木流转制度演化历程,发现改革开放四十年中国集体林所有权和家庭经营的基因没有变,变的是集体林地承包经营权的实现形式;指出集体林产权制度变迁道路中的困惑;提出未来集体林产权制度的选择路径。  相似文献   
8.
This study explores the causal relationship between financial development and trade openness in China, using the research methodology namely bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and sub-sample rolling-window estimation. The results reveal that there is a significant bidirectional relationship between financial development and trade openness in China, pointing out the existence of both ‘demand-following’ and ‘supply-leading’ hypotheses. Furthermore, their relationship fits well the fact that China has experienced economic restructuring and structural changes in the past few decades. As financial development improves trade openness robustly, the Chinese policymakers should further increase financial reform to promote trade development.  相似文献   
9.
Some governments seem ambivalent towards economic crime because, on the one hand, there are adverse effects on competition and legal businesses; on the other hand, there are benefits through (shadow) employment and income in less-developed areas, as well as benefits through relations of political clientage. We focus on counterfeiting and its economic effects on trade in Italy during the economic crisis. Using a newly built regional dataset and a dynamic panel model, we find evidence of the dual impact of counterfeiting. The production (and exchange) of fake goods depresses the legal market that relies on intellectual property rights but supports shadow-economic activities for the benefit of illegal workers, criminal organisations, and political clientele. We show that the negative effects outweigh the positive effects.  相似文献   
10.
Banking integration is widely considered as the last stepping stone of economic integration, especially at the regional level. This paper aims to introduce extended measures of banking openness and the overall balanced degree of integration through capital flows. Using the quarterly data from the ASEAN-6 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) from 1996Q4 to 2016Q4, the obtained empirical results reveal that: (i) the degree of banking openness, which measures the total inflows and outflows divided by the total banking assets of the given country, remains low and even slightly decreases, despite the increasing cross-border banking and greater economic links among ASEAN-6; (ii) the overall degree of balance, which calculates the balance and the diversification of outward and inward integration, fluctuates over time but reaches the well-balanced level. Furthermore, the research highlights main drivers of the banking integration in this region, such as regulatory quality, bank size and the global credit risk. These findings have important policy implications for banking stability and integration in ASEAN-6.  相似文献   
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