边疆民族地区经济增长与就业关系比较研究

通过建立GDP就业模型揭示经济增长与就业的内在关系。要增加就业降低失业率，必须保持快速和稳定的经济增长和提高GDP就业弹性。比较分析边疆少数民族地区和东部发达地区的GDP就业弹性，发现由于东部发达地区经济更依赖于资本和技术进步，其GDP就业弹性、GDP对就业的“指数效应”比边疆少数民族地区的小。同时随着边疆少数民族地区经济的资本有机构成逐渐提高和进一步的资本深化，GDP就业弹性也在逐渐下降。东部发达地区GDP对就业的“乘数效应”比边疆民族地区的大，说明了东部发达地区依然是吸收就业和农村剩余劳动力的主要地区，并提出增加就业的对策建议。     

A New Approach to Random Utility Modeling using the Dirichlet Multinomial Distribution

In this paper we introduce a new econometricapproach to analyzing recreational site choicedata, the Dirichlet multinomial model. Thismodel, which nests the standard conditionalmultinomial logit model, can accommodateover-dispersed data and may provide moreefficient estimators of coefficients andconsequent welfare measures than the standardconditional logit model, which is so widelyused in the Random Utility Model approach torecreation demand. We illustrate thisDirichlet approach using a data set of rockclimbers in Scotland, and study the impacts onper-trip consumers surplus of alternativemanagement strategies for popular rock climbingsites. Results show that the Dirichletmultinomial approach produces coefficient andwelfare estimates having smaller samplingvariability in this case. We also compareclassical welfare measures with their posteriorequivalents, which allow for welfare changes tobe dis-aggregated.     

A simple random assignment problem with a unique solution

Summary. All agents have the same ordinal ranking over all objects, receiving no object (opting out) may be preferable to some objects, agents differ on which objects are worse than opting out, and the latter information is private. The Probabilistic Serial assignment, improves upon (in the Pareto sense) the Random Priority assignment, that randomly orders the agents and offers them successively the most valuable remaining object. We characterize Probabilistic Serial by efficiency in an ordinal sense, and envy-freeness. We characterize it also by ordinal efficiency, strategyproofness and equal treatment of equals. Received: October 5, 1999; revised version: December 20, 2000     

对外直接投资的贸易效应研究--基于中国经验的实证分析

对外直接投资与出口贸易之间的关系一直是相关理论和实证研究的争论主题。运用引力模型,对中国FD I的贸易效应进行实证分析表明:中国对东道国的直接投资促进中国对东道国的出口,但对从东道国的进口却具有替代效应。因此,大力促进中国对外直接投资,是促进中国的对外出口、绕开东道国贸易壁垒的重要途径。     

略论产业集群技术标准与集聚的正负效应之相关性

产业集群是现代产业发展过程中形成的一种具有典型特征的，介于企业和行业之间的产业组织形态。产业集聚的巨大正效应是产业集群形成和发展的重要原因。同时，产业集聚也会产生负效应，这些负效应可能导致产业集群发展缓慢，甚至衰退和消亡。找到正确有效的途径强化产业集聚的正效应，预防和消除产业集聚的负效应，是保持产业集群健康、持续发展的关键。技术标准对产业和企业的命运起着越来越重要的作用，技术标准与产业集群发展、运行秩序规范、负效应的防范与消除等方面都有着紧密的相关性，是促进产业集群发展的有效工具和手段。     

Probability of survival in a random exchange economy with dependent agents

Summary. In this paper I analyze the general equilibrium in a random Walrasian economy. Dependence among agents is introduced in the form of dependency neighborhoods. Under the uncertainty, an agent may fail to survive due to a meager endowment in a particular state (direct effect), as well as due to unfavorable equilibrium price system at which the value of the endowment falls short of the minimum needed for survival (indirect terms-of-trade effect). To illustrate the main result I compute the stochastic limit of equilibrium price and probability of survival of an agent in a large Cobb-Douglas economy. Received June 7, 2001; revised version: January 7, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" I would like to thank Mukul Majumdar and Thomas DiCiccio for helpful discussion and an anonymous referee for valuable comments and suggestions.     

地方官员与经济增长——来自中国省长、省委书记交流的证据

通常认为地方官员在我国经济发展中扮演着积极角色,近来国家也有意通过干部交流促进省区平衡发展,但国内还没有定量识别地方官员影响经济增长的文献。本文基于1978—2005年间省长(书记)交流样本构造了省长(书记)与省区相匹配的面板数据,系统地实证分析省长(书记)交流对流入省区经济增长的影响(即省长交流效应),结果发现,整体而言,省长交流能够使流入地的经济增长速度提高1个百分点左右;这种省长交流效应是通过在流入地采取大力发展二产、重视一产、忽视三产的产业发展取向实现的。本文的发现是稳健的,有助于增进对加强干部交流破解省区发展不平衡的理解。     

浅谈所有权保留

在现代商品交易活动中，赊销、分期付款已成为非常普遍的交易方式，在这种交易方式中如何保护出卖人利益成为合同法理论和实践中的重要课题。本通过对合同法第134条关于所有权保留制度的阐述，论述了所有权保留的含义、客体、登记及当事人权利义务等内容，希对买卖合同实务有积极的指导意义。     

我国货币政策的透明度及效应分析

本文在评估了目前我国货币政策透明度现状的基础上，分析了提高透明度所产生的正效应，同时也指出我国央行透明度的制度建设还根不完善，尤其是决策透明度较低，产生了一些负效应，影响了政策的执行效果，最后提出了进一步提高透明度的建议。     

供应链中"牛鞭效应"案例分析及解决方法研究

“牛鞭效应”是供应链管理中一种普遍存在的现象，随着经济的发展，竞争的加剧，如何消除“牛鞭效应”产生的危害．已经成为人们关注的一个问题。本论文通过具体的案例分析，说明“牛鞭效应”对整个供应链产生的负面影响；并根据此例．提出了一些解决问题的方法。