科技金融对制造业结构优化的双重效应研究——基于省级制造业面板数据的GMM估计

科技金融为我国产业升级带来新的发展机遇，制造业作为经济发展的核心，其结构优化升级是否受科技金融的影响值得探索。采用2010—2016年我国省级制造业细分行业数据，从合理化、高级化角度考察科技金融对制造业结构的直接效应和间接效应。结果发现，科技金融对制造业结构合理化和高级化具有直接促进作用，同时其直接影响具有地区异质性。从合理化角度，科技金融对沿海地区制造业结构合理化的影响程度低于内陆地区；从高级化角度，科技金融能够显著促进沿海地区制造业结构高级化，对内陆地区的影响则不显著。另外，通过分析科技金融对制造业结构优化的间接影响发现，技术创新和要素市场发育在科技金融对制造业结构优化的影响过程中发挥积极中介作用。     

数字经济对中国全要素生产率的影响机理:提升效应还是抑制效果？

数字经济是新时代引领中国经济高质量发展的关键抓手。然而现阶段数字经济普惠性发展尚未实现，掣肘着其对国内全要素生产率的提升力度。文章在理论分析的基础上，基于熵权TOPSIS法测算了2012-2018年中国数字经济发展水平指数，探讨了中国数字经济对全要素生产率的影响机理。研究发现：数字经济的发展显著提升了中国全要素生产率水平，但区域层面上，东部地区的数字经济发展明显领先于中西部地区，引领着中国全要素生产率快速增长。从全要素生产率的分解指标来看，数字经济推动了技术效率提升，但现阶段国内关键核心技术环节薄弱以及数字产业化带来的人才和资金的虹吸效应导致数字经济对技术进步产生了阻碍作用。此外，当前数字经济对不同产业的渗透度存在明显的不均衡性，筑高了创新资源的流动壁垒，影响产业间协调创新及合理化布局，进而抑制了对全要素生产率的提升力度。进一步的机制检验表明在创新环境的支持下，人才集聚及金融规模强化了数字经济对全要素生产率的提升力度。     

Afriat’s theorem for indivisible goods

We identify a natural counterpart of the standard GARP for demand data in which goods are all indivisible. We show that the new axiom (DARP, for “discrete axiom of revealed preference”) is necessary and sufficient for the rationalization of the data by a well-behaved utility function. Our results complement the main finding of Polisson and Quah (2013), who rather minimally modify the original consumer problem with indivisible goods so that the standard GARP still applies.     

产业结构变迁对海洋经济发展的影响——基于沿海11省市的实证分析

本文以我国沿海 11个省市为研究对象,将其划分为北部、中部以及南部海洋经济圈,在测度其产业结构合理化与产业结构高度化的基础上,研究不同地区间产业结 构合理化以及产业结构高度化对于海洋经济发展的影响。结果表明, 1999-2017年间,三 个经济圈的产业结构合理化与产业结构高度化都在逐步提升。产业结构合理化与产业结构高度化均对海洋经济发展产生显著的正向作用。进一步的分析发现,产业结构高度 化对于海洋经济增长的偏效应远高于产业结构合理化对于经济增长的偏效应。     

对教育投入政策的比较分析及建议

知识已经成为经济发展和社会转型中最重要的因素。教育是提高人们学习和理解知识与信息能力的关键。而财务投入是教育事业发展的主要动力，对我国教育投入和世界上其他国家的教育投入进行分析和比较，从中找出我国在教育投入方面的差距，并提出我国教育投入政策的改进措施。     

AIA submission: CEO overconfidence and the incidence of financial restatement

The role of the Chief Executive Officer (hereafter, CEO) in financial reporting is almost universally assumed to be significant (Carcello, Neal, Palmrose & Scholz, 2011; Cohen, Krishnamoorthy, & Wright, 2002; Connelly, 2005; Paredes, 2004). While academics and regulators agree that the CEO can have a large impact on financial reporting decisions, there is very little research on how individual CEO characteristics actually influence the financial reporting process. This paper examines the impact of one such CEO characteristic – CEO overconfidence – on the incidence of financial restatement. We utilize a matched-pairs research design consisting of 75 restatement firms (obtained through the GAO restatement sample) and a set of 75 non-restatement control firms. Using an options-based measure of CEO overconfidence developed by Malmendier and Tate (2008), we document a statistically significant positive relation between CEO overconfidence and financial statement restatement.     

不同技术创新途径与产业结构升级动态互动关系研究

运用2009-2017年中国内地30个省份相关数据和PVAR模型，对自主创新、合作创新、技术引进、产业结构合理化及高级化间的动态互动关系进行实证研究。结果发现：①自主创新对合作创新和技术引进在短期内为负向影响，在长期内为正向影响，合作创新对自主创新始终为正向影响，对技术引进在短期内为正向影响，在长期内为负向影响，技术引进对自主创新和合作创新始终起负向作用；②自主创新和合作创新在短期内不利于产业结构升级，但长期内对产业结构升级起促进作用，技术引进始终不利于产业结构升级；③中国产业结构合理化现状在短期内对合作创新和技术引进起负向作用，在长期内对3种技术创新途径均起正向作用，高级化对3种技术创新途径始终起正向作用；④产业结构合理化和高级化发展在短期内不一致，但在长期内表现一致。因此，为提高中国技术创新水平、实现产业结构升级，应坚持走自主创新和合作创新的技术发展道路。     

The history of Western futures studies: An exploration of the intellectual traditions and three-phase periodization

The main purpose of this paper is to present a three-phase periodization of modern Western futures studies to construct historical classification. In order to reach this goal, the following intellectual traditions are introduced to review the philosophical and historical contexts that affect the very foundations of futures studies: (a) religions, (b) utopias, (c) historicism, (d) science fiction, and (e) systems thinking. The first phase (beginning in 1945 to the 1960s) was the era of scientific inquiry and rationalization of the futures characterized by the prevalence of technological forecasting, the rise of alternative futures in systematic ways, and the growth of professionalization of futures studies. In the first phase, futures had become objects of rationalization removed from the traditional approaches such as utopia, grandiose evolutionary ideas, naive prophecies, science fiction, religious attitudes, and mystical orientation. The second phase (the 1970s and the 1980s) saw the creation the global institution and industrialization of the futures. This era was marked by the rise of worldwide discourse on global futures, the development of normative futures, and the deep involvement of the business community in futures thinking. In the second phase, futures studies-industry ties were growing and the future-oriented thoughts extensively permeated the business decision-making process. The third phase (the 1990s – the present) reflects the current era of the neoliberal view and fragmentation of the futures. This phase is taking place in the time of neoliberal globalization and risk society discourses and is characterized by the dominance of foresight, the advance of critical futures studies, and the intensification of fragmentation. In the third phase, futures practice tends to be confined to the support of strategic planning, and hence is experiencing an identity crisis and loss of its earlier status of humanity-oriented futures.     

Corruption as an organizational process: Understanding the logic of the denormalization of corruption

This article discusses the basic assumptions of an individualist vision on corruption. A different argument based on “social density” of the phenomenon is proposed instead: the process of normalization of corruption. Under this umbrella, corruption is a political concept that looks to impose a particular vision on what are “right” behaviors based on a sharp and unrealistic separation of the public and private sphere. A review of the organizational literature on corruption is developed, with the aim of understanding how organizational processes of socialization triggers behaviors that make corrupt acts to appear as “normal” under the organizational logic. Persons find themselves in a “slippery slope”, generating agreements and social dynamics that are able to produce corrupt logics under the normal life of an organization. A plea for discussing the social processes needed to “un-normalize” corruption is defended a conceptualization that goes beyond an individualist and moralist vision of the phenomenon.