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中国能源结构低碳化转型的政策分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
本文构建了中国能源-经济社会核算矩阵,使用SAM账户乘数分析方法探讨可再生能源电力产业在经济结构中的特征,部门扩张对其他经济部门的影响.同时利用SAM价格乘数研究不同的能源价格政策对经济系统的影响,结果表明政府采用对煤炭收取碳税的同时,对可再生能源电力产业进行补贴的价格政策是有效的.可再生能源电力产业的发展对经济结构的优化和能源结构低碳化转型有着积极作用,并能够降低成本推动型通货膨胀的发生风险.  相似文献
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随着世界经济一体化和空间经济学的日益发展,系统模型方法在国家或区域间经济联动方面的扩展和深化研究正在显现出巨大的应用价值。本文首先开发一个世界连接可计算一般均衡模型,科学揭示各经济体的运行特征,为定量剖析世界范围内各经济体的经济增长、结构变动方面提供一个系统分析框架:一方面在模型的理论框架中,分析了世界CGE模型各个模块的构建思想和对应的主要方程及其特征;另一方面建立了世界连接社会核算矩阵。然后通过动态模拟分析,检验链接模式和国家间经济联系,以及应用于各经济体政策变化的综合影响评价。  相似文献
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在社会核算矩阵“部门×交易”表基础上,设计了“部门×部门”和“交易×交易”表表式,提出了“固定部门结构假定”和“固定市场份额假定”的总体概念,将这两种假定扩展为6种具体假定。将传统的“U.V”表方法纳入到了SAM假定序列中。全面设计了编制SAM“部门×部门”表和“交易×交易表”的系列公式,并应用这些公式在“部门×交易”表基础上实际编制了中国2012年SAM“部门×部门”表和“交易×交易”表。  相似文献
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针对初始不平衡SAM与真实SAM关系未知的情形,本文提出了最小二乘交叉熵(LSCE)平衡法。基于最小二乘法(LS)、交叉熵法(CE)以及LSCE方法的仿真分析表明,CE与LS的相对稳健性取决于初始不平衡SAM的误差特征:当初始不平衡SAM的交易流量更接近于真实SAM时,LS较优;当初始不平衡SAM的系数矩阵更接近于真实SAM时,CE较优。LSCE方法同时考虑了SAM表流量和系数矩阵信息,故可得到精度介于LS和CE间的平衡SAM表,从而保证了平衡后SAM表的相对精度。  相似文献
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交互效应面板模型是目前计量经济学前沿研究的热点,有着广阔的应用空间。但是对很多应用者而言,模型内的参数估计是一个非常棘手的问题。通常的Newton-Raphson算法在优化似然函数的过程中,常常会出现优化失败的情况。本文依据EM算法和MCMC算法理论,为应用研究者提供了一套获得参数估计值的流程。计算机上的试验证实两种估计方法都非常稳健可靠,并在很多情况下,差异不是很大。  相似文献
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文中从电信运营商采购管理的全局出发,提出并构建了采购管理系统优化的概念框架,在此基础上分析了采购管理系统的构成、管理层次的划分、采购职能的分配,以及采购工作的具体流程。以集中化、精细化管理为指导原则,文中认为采购管理包括四方面核心内容,即供应商准入管理(SAM)、供应商选择管理(SSM)、供应商关系管理(SRM)和供应商监控管理(SMM)。建议电信运营商采购管理部门除应重视招标采购职能建设外,还应强化供应商准入管理、供应商关系管理和供应商监控管理三个管理职能,在采购流程中应增加供应商资源库的建设,中标供应商的分类管理,以及奖惩机制的建立等。  相似文献
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This paper provides the latest Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the year 2003–2004 for the Indian economy with a wide variety of disaggregation for the Energy sector and the sectors that are relevant for environmental and climate policy evaluation. This SAM shows the interaction between production, income, consumption and capital accumulation. It can be used to provide an analysis of the interrelationship between the production structure of an economy and the distribution of incomes and expenditures of different household groups. In addition, it can be used for multiplier analysis to capture direct, indirect and induced impact on input use due to any exogenous changes in the economy. This SAM consists of 85 sectors of the economy, three factors of production and nine categories of occupational households. The Indian economy is becoming structurally biased towards capital intensive sectors, such as service and energy production. The energy production sector itself is the most energy intensive sector as of 2003–2004.  相似文献
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The decomposition of a matrix multiplier derived from a social accounting matrix (SAM) by Pyatt and Round [(1979). Accounting and Fixed Price Multipliers in a Social Accounting Matrix Framework. Economic Journal, 89, 850–873] has prompted a number of subsequent applications. In one of the earliest examples Stone [(1985). The Disaggregation of the Household Sector in the National Accounts, Chapter 8. In: G. Pyatt and J.I. Round (eds.) Social Accounting Matrices: A Basis for Planning. Washington, DC, The World Bank, 145–185] made the intriguing observation that the higher order (circular) effects of an exogenous change in final demand on the distribution of income and the structure of production were more or less independent of the sectoral composition of the initial injection. Our initial objective in this article is to explore this phenomenon of distributional invariance and to derive sufficient conditions for it. We then argue that these conditions have important implications for the design of SAMs, for the taxonomies they adopt and for levels of disaggregation, all of which strongly condition the quality of results that can be generated via subsequent modelling.  相似文献
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The computation of General Equilibrium models crucially depends on Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based calibration and on how estimation/imputation are performed to reproduce the benchmark dataset as an equilibrium solution. In this paper, theoretical contributions are provided by suggesting a new procedure in which the production function parameters and the elasticity of substitution are estimated by resorting to the data contained in the SAM. To this aim, the Generalized Cross-Entropy estimator is used. Application of this self-contained procedure to the regional SAM for the Italian region Tuscany leads to empirical results consisting of the estimates of the elasticities of substitution of Constant Elasticity of Substitution and Translog production functions consistent with the theoretical background. This yields a more efficient and effective solution of Computable General Equilibrium models.  相似文献
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An inter-regional social accounting matrix (IRSAM) model is used to estimate the spillover effects occurring between economies of two US regions – (i) Alaska, which depends heavily on imports of commodities and factors of production from outside the region, and (ii) the rest of the US (RoUS). Multiplier decomposition is used to calculate intra-regional multipliers and spillover effects between the two regions. Results show that a significant percentage (46.3–70.8%) of the total secondary impacts of a shock to Alaskan industries leaks out of Alaska and flows to the RoUS. An analysis of household multipliers indicates that over 60% of the total secondary effects of an increase in Alaska household income accrues to the RoUS households. Policymakers are concerned with identifying the magnitude, nature, and geographic distribution of economic impacts from the policies they implement. The IRSAM model provides the framework for a better understanding of the intra-regional and spillover effects of policies.  相似文献
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