基于系统动力学的中小企业云计算服务商选择风险分析

全面的认识和评估风险是做出正确决策的关键基础。本文对中小企业云计算服务商选择风险进行全面分析，将风险分为机会成本、信息不对称、逆向选择、连锁风险以及冲突风险五个方面，并建立系统动力学模型，进行仿真，最后得出中小企业云计算服务商选择风险发展趋势并对趋势进行分析。     

教育与经济协调发展的SD模型

教育发展与经济增长呈正相关关系。根据教育系统有关因素的因果关系,建立教育系统动力学模型,可测算教育对经济增长的拉动作用。     

一种基于虚拟现实技术的植物景观 规划设计方案评价与修正方法——以 长荡湖旅游度假区为例

为能够定量评估、优化植物景观规划设计方案,基 于虚拟现实技术,改进传统的BIB-LCJ法和SD法,采用主成 分分析和回归分析筛选出植物群落丰富度、色彩对比度、季相 特征、植物配置模式、植被多样性和林冠线变化6项显著视觉 特征要素,形成一种基于虚拟现实三维建模技术的植物景观规 划设计方案评价与修正方法。并以长荡湖旅游度假区植物景观 规划设计方案为例,对方案视觉质量进行评价,实验过程证明 了研究方法的可靠性。     

高标清混合视频监控系统的设计与实施

分析了机车制造企业目前视频监控系统的现状和新的需求,针对机车制造企业的行业特点设计了高标清混合视频监控系统,在设计和实施中应用了高清视频监控的最新技术,同时做到了与原有标清视频监控系统的兼容。给出了具有一定使用价值的高标清混合视频监控系统的逻辑结构、系统总体结构和网络拓扑结构,提出了旧的视频监控系统在升级改造中应该注意的问题。     

Semantic Differential as an Assessment Tool of （Dis） Advantages of QMS in the Light of Accredited Certification in Poland

This article is a continuation of the issue in the field of assessment of （dis）advantages resulting from the implementation of the quality management systems （QMS） in a structure of the organization. The publication uses the results of studies conducted in the range of assessment＇s information completeness provided by the certification bodies （CBs） in the context of advantages and disadvantages of the QMS implementation in accordance with PN-EN ISO 9001. In addition, an attempt to define a tool for the QMS assessment of （dis）advantages in the organization has been made. The basis for empirical analysis of the issue was the information provided by an accredited management systems CBs recommended by the Polish Centre for Accreditation （PCA）. There are 33 units in Poland, which were granted by PCA with the accreditation within the range of ISO 9001：2008. In the first stage of the research work, a substantive analysis of websites content among mentioned CBs has been carried out. In addition, the paper proposes use of semantic differential method （SD） to evaluate （dis）advantages of the QMS. SD adaptation for the assessment of the QMS （dis）advantages is the authorial concept. The authors hope for polemic in this area. In the face of obtained results, an authorial SD construction has been proposed, which is useful and may help in the formulation and conveying of the relevant （reliable） information to potential clients in the range of （dis）advantages resulting from the QMS implementation to the organization. As a consequence, the recommendations have been set, which are kind of guidelines that could significantly influence the realignment of the information state conveyed on the internet by the CBs.     

Monitoring the mean and the variance of a stationary process

We deal with the problem of how deviations in the mean or the variance of a time series can be detected. Several simultaneous control charts are introduced which are based on EWMA (exponentially weighted moving average) statistics for the mean and the empirical variance. The combined X − S² EWMA chart is extended to time series. Further simultaneous charts are considered. The comparision of these schemes shows that the residual attempt must be favored if a variance change is present.     

分布未知情形下基于Burr近似的VSSI EWMA图多目标优化设计

为了提高过程质量监控效率和降低过程质量控制成本，针对过程质量特性分布未知情形，利用Burr分布近似未知分布，研究可变样本容量和抽样间隔(VSSI)的指数加权移动平均(EWMA)控制图的统计经济多目标优化设计问题。首先，建立基于Burr近似的未知分布VSSI EWMA图，采用平均产品长度、单位产品质量成本分别作为统计和经济指标，构造该图的统计经济多目标优化设计模型 。之后，采用NSGA-Ⅱ算法对模型进行算例求解和灵敏度分析。最后，将该方案与已有几种EWMA图设计方案比较。结果表明，在总体分布未知时，该方案在统计监控效率和过程监控成本两方面都要优于VSSI EWMA图的单一性设计，以及EWMA图多目标优化设计。     

The Strategy of Combining Products and Services: A Literature Review

This article provides the analyses of the academic literature on offering a combination of products and services. Trend analyses were performed from 1995 through the end of 2016 on the various parameters such as journals publishing this type of research, changes in the use of keywords, citation frequency, and research contribution from different authors, disciplines, and nations. The analyses presented a clear trend that research in combining product and services accelerated after the year 2000 indicating a focus on research in this area in the 21^st century. This highlights many emerging trends in this area.     

基于SD方法研究社会资本与经济发展问题探讨

经济发展历来是经济学家们研究的重要内容,在相继强调物质资本、人力资本、知识资本后,社会资本因素引起人们的关注。在对社会资本与经济发展相关文献梳理的基础上,尝试性地采用SD方法对这一问题进行探讨。通过建立社会资本与经济发展的宏观概念基模———＂滚雪球＂基模以及社会资本的成长上限基模来分析社会资本与经济发展的关系。最后指出了后期研究的方向和有待解决的问题。     

上海市土地综合承载力的系统动力学研究

研究目的: 通过模拟上海市2010—2020年社会经济发展状态,为上海市未来发展模式的选择提供参考。研究方法: 理论分析和实证分析相结合、系统动力学等方法。研究结果: 2015年,5种情景模拟状态承载力指数从高到低依次是：现状延续型、资源节约型、经济优先型、协调发展型、环境保护型;2020年依次是协调发展型、现状延续型、资源节约型、环境保护型、经济优先型。研究结论: “十二五”规划中对2015年和2020年上海市人口规模的预测值大于现状延续型、资源节约型、环境保护型和协调发展型4种模式对人口的预测值,处于超载状态;对国民经济生产总值的预测值大于环境保护型模拟值,小于其他4种发展方式模拟值,上海市土地资源对经济规模的承载能力在预测期内可以基本满足实际发展的需求。