Forecasting turning points in tourism growth

Tourism demand exhibits growth cycles, and it is important to forecast turning points in these growth cycles to minimise risks to destination management. This study estimates logistic models of Hong Kong tourism demand, which are then used to generate both short- and long-term forecasts of tourism growth. The performance of the models is evaluated using the quadratic probability score and hit rates. The results show that the ways in which this information is used are crucial to the models’ predictive power. Further, we investigate whether combining probability forecasts can improve predictive accuracy, and find that combination approaches, especially nonlinear combination approaches, are sensitive to the quality of forecasts in the pool. In addition, model screening can improve forecasting performance.     

基于遥感蒸散数据的农田灌溉水平评价和设施建设分区研究

[目的]利用遥感蒸散数据快速评价农田年度灌溉水平,及时获取基本农田建设成效,为农田灌溉设施分区建设提供参考。[方法]以黑龙江省海伦市为研究区,MOD16蒸散产品为数据源,计算有效灌溉量、灌溉需水量和作物缺水指数,分别对研究区2013年的旱地和水田灌溉水平进行评价,并将评价结果与农田水利设施作用分值图进行叠加分析,在此基础上进行基本农田灌溉设施建设分区。[结果]2013年海伦市耕地灌溉水平整体较高,区域间建设水平差别较大,可划分为4个级别。其中1级和2级灌溉水平的地块面积比例可达78.06%,地域分布上看,北部、西部、中部乡镇灌溉水平较高,东南部乡镇灌溉水平相对较低。叠加得出8种组合类型,分为设施修建型、设施提升型和设施维护型3种分区类型。[结论]研究为高标准农田建设提供了更详细的农田灌溉水平评价方法和更具差别化的农田灌溉设施建设策略。     

Financial development,financial liberalization and social capital

The relationship between financial liberalization policies and financial development is controversial. The impact of these policies differs greatly across countries. In the literature, the quality of formal institutions has been identified as an important source of this heterogeneity, as countries with a weak institutional environment generally fail to benefit from financial liberalization. Using panel data covering 82 countries for the period 1973–2008, we find evidence that social capital may substitute for formal institutions as a prerequisite for effective financial liberalization policies. In particular, we find that during the post Washington-consensus period countries with a high prevailing level of social capital can ensure that financial liberalization positively influences financial development, despite the poor quality of their formal institutions.     

Network ties and export propensity of Vietnamese small and medium enterprises

This paper investigates the impacts of different network ties on export propensity of Vietnamese small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the manufacturing sector. Using data from a survey of over 2,600 manufacturing SMEs in 2015, we found that social networks contribute positively to the export propensity of SMEs, while the size of business networks negatively associates with the likelihood of export. However, bank networks and political networks are not significant for the propensity to export of Vietnamese SMEs. We discuss the results in detail and offer recommendations for SME owners, managers and policy makers.     

Life insurance decisions under recursive utility

In this paper, we generalize recursive utility to include lifetime uncertainty and utility from bequest. The generalization applies to discrete-time as well as continuous-time recursive utility, and it is an important step forward in the development of recursive utility. We formalize the problem of optimal consumption, investment, and life insurance choice under recursive utility, and we state a verification theorem with a generalized Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Our generalization of recursive utility allows us to study optimal consumption, investment, and life insurance choice under separation of (market) risk aversion, elasticity of inter-temporal substitution, and elasticity of substitution between bequest and future utility. The separation gives rise to hump-shaped consumption patterns as observed in realized consumption.     

Challenges for regional science research: past and present

With regional science now into its seventh decade, it is timely to step back and look at what regional science is about, the past challenges it has faced, particularly its relevance, and to identify some of the challenges it has confronted in the past and at present. The paper demonstrates regional science research has had, and continues to have, policy relevance, as well as being relevant for business, and has addressed important issues. It provides an overview of recent commentaries on issues regional scientists might now be addressing.     

Time-varying inter-urban housing price spillovers in China: Causes and consequences

The spatial spillovers of housing prices across regions are well documented by a large body of previous studies. This paper tries to investigate the dynamic (time-varying) evolution of spatial interactions and their underlying driving factors intensively. Using a recently developed Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model, this paper examines the time-varying spatial spillovers of housing prices in 70 major and median cities of China from 2006 to 2019. We find that the GAS model can well capture the impact of time-varying critical events of Chinese real estate market on the whole. However, different regions display heterogeneous variation patterns over time. Further investigation shows that inter-regional labor mobility and trades are two major channels, accounting for 1.25% and 2.58% of the monthly standard deviations of spatial spillover effects from one city to another, respectively. We also characterize and distinguish between three time-varying patterns of spatial spillovers within different regions of China. Our results shed lights on the understanding of spatial spillovers across regional real estate markets across different city network structures within China.     

The impact of international diversification on credit scores: Evidence from the UK

Despite the great deal of previous research into international diversification, we know little about the impact of international diversification on firms’ credit scores. Drawing upon the resource-based view and transaction cost economics, we examine the relationship between international diversification and credit scores by using a large sample of 6,557 UK firms between 2016 and 2017. We find an inverted U-shaped relationship between international diversification and firms’ credit scores, indicating that the effect of international diversification on credit scores is initially positive but becomes negative with over-diversification. In addition, we find that R&D intensity positively moderates the relationship between international diversification and credit score, implying that the credit scores of highly diversified firms improve as they increase their investment in R&D. Further analysis suggests that a firm’s credit score becomes less dependent on international diversification for large firms, firms in concentrated industries, firms in the manufacturing sector, and firms distant from key metropolitan areas, such as London.     

Emotions,deliberations, and end‐of‐life products

Death is inevitable; yet, not all consumers prepare for death by purchasing end‐of‐life (EOL) products. Using the theory of reasoned action (TRA) and the dual‐process model framework, this study aims to examine the role of emotions and cognitions in influencing consumers' decisions to engage in planning for death. A mixed methodology design was used. Study 1, a qualitative study, uncovered positive and negative emotions and deliberative reasoning that comprise consumers' EOL purchase decision process. Study 2, a quantitative study, confirmed that emotions and deliberations independently and jointly influenced consumers' EOL attitude and behavior and that emotions affected deliberations for both prepaid funerals and wills. Subjective norms outperformed attitude in predicting both products' purchase behavior. These finding supported the dual‐process model of behavior and the TRA in the EOL research context and contributed to the EOL literature by investigating the effects of emotions and deliberations concurrently; thus validating the important role of emotions in influencing EOL planning and purchase. In light of our findings, marketers could, after due cognizance of the morbidity and sensitivity of the topic, develop actionable promotional and segmentation strategies for EOL products and other emotion‐laden, unsought products and service.     

What determines international tourist arrivals in India?

Using data for 18 major tourist originating countries to India from 2001 to 2015, this study examines the major determinants of international tourist arrivals in India. The results indicate that past experiences of the tourists, per capita income in the tourist originating country, relative costs of living between India and the country of origin, and the level of infrastructure development in India are key determinants of international tourist arrivals in India. Furthermore, both transportation and communication infrastructure are important in attracting tourists to India. In particular, evidence suggests that availability of road and air network and telephone connections has favourable impacts on international tourist arrivals in India. These results are robust to the inclusion of additional variables. These results have important policy implications.