Mitigating panic buying behavior in the epidemic: An evolutionary game perspective

The panic buying behavior under public health emergencies will lead to many adverse consequences, such as material waste, price fluctuation and uneven distribution of epidemic prevention materials, which will pose a threat to the social stability and economic development. In this paper, we construct a tripartite game model to explore the strategic choices of the public, merchants and the government in order to effectively respond to the panic buying behavior in the epidemic. The results demonstrate that: (1) Eight evolutionary stable strategies emerge in the panic buying events. The worst scenario can be improved by adjusting some relevant parameters. (2) The probability of the public choosing the strategy of “not involving in panic buying” depends on the potential benefits and losses of snapping up, rather than the extent of price rising. (3) The probability of merchants choosing the strategy of “not bid up price” depends on the intangible benefits. (4) The probability of the government choosing the strategy of “active supervision” depends on the supervision costs and government credibility, rather than the amount of fines. In addition, strategic suggestions to mitigate panic buying behavior are put forward from the perspective of each stakeholder.     

Obesity of politicians and corruption in Ukraine in 2000–2020– Reply

We collected 469 frontal face images of Ukrainian cabinet ministers who were in office in 2000–2020. For each image, the minister's body mass index was estimated using a computer vision algorithm. The time series of median estimated body mass index of cabinet ministers co-moves over time with two existing measures of corruption – World Bank worldwide governance indicator Control of Corruption, and the discrepancy between the quantity of luxury wristwatches exported from Switzerland to Ukraine (reported by Swiss statistics) and the corresponding quantity imported by Ukraine from Switzerland (reported by Ukrainian statistics).     

Does local government competition aggravate haze pollution? A new perspective of factor market distortion

Haze pollution has become a new threat to China's sustainable development, but it may be that local government behaviour can play an important role in the prevention and control of pollutants. A dynamic spatial autoregressive (SAR) model is used to study the relationship between local government competition and haze pollution. To further explore the indirect impact of factor market distortion on haze pollution and control potential endogeneity problems, a newly developed intermediary effect model that incorporates the characteristics of the generalized method of moments (GMM) is utilized to explore how factor market distortion indirectly affects haze pollution. The research results show that regional haze pollution in China is characterized by significant spatial correlation, and local government competition has a positive impact on haze pollution; that is, local government competition exacerbates haze pollution. In general, local government competition not only directly leads to an increase in haze pollution but also further intensifies it by distorting the local factor market, and the intermediary role of factor market distortion is approximately 7.04%. The results of the regional inspection found that competition among local governments in the eastern region did not lead to haze pollution, and distortion of the factor market did not exist as an intermediary effect. However, both direct and intermediary effects are significant in the central and western regions. Therefore, an official performance appraisal system that includes ecological constraints should be established to guide the benign transformation of local government competition, and an environmental management mechanism must be developed for joint prevention and control to reduce haze pollution. In addition, the free flow of factors and marketization are equally important.     

优化营商环境,推动发展高质量经济

促进中国经济高质量发展的必由之路是优化营商环境,提升区域竞争力。目前我国面临着国际内外的复杂局势,经济未来的发展趋势不容乐观,为此我们要深入落实新的发展理念,建立新的发展思路,构建新的发展格局。优化营商环境应实现建立服务型政府,实现企业经营环节的全覆盖,降低制度性交易成本、建立完善的商业系统生态链、打造具有中国特色的营商环境。     

政府投资工程总承包项目设计优化认定与收益归属研究

工程总承包模式以设计与施工的高度融合,日益在建筑业受到青睐。但由于政府投资项目中存在有关结余资金上缴国库等规定,容易导致政府投资工程总承包项目下设计优化产生的成果是进行分成或作为结余资金上缴界定不清。鉴于此,本文通过政策文件,并结合政府投资项目特点,分析政府投资工程总承包项目设计优化的情形认定以及在不同结算依据和合同计价方式下设计优化收益归属的界定,为有效激励总承包单位积极进行设计优化奠定基础。     

地方财政政策逆周期调节：财政分权还是债务增发*

财政政策工具实际操作偏离最初设计将会降低政策工具的调控效果，导致宏观经济波动加剧。针对地方政府财政政策的逆周期性调控目标，本文关注财政分权深化和政府债务增发的逆周期性效应。研究发现：地方政府财政政策总体呈现顺周期特征。财政分权程度的提高放大了地方财政政策的顺周期性。地方政府债务增发使地方财政政策呈现逆周期特征。地方政府财政政策及其收入面、支出面均呈现顺周期性，由“顺”转“逆”的债务平衡点分别为0137，0113，0209。当前绝大部分地区的债务规模都在债务平衡点之下。驱动地方政府债务逆周期调控的内在因素是官员晋升激励。晋升激励的程度越高，地方债务逆周期调控的力度就越大。但外部市场融资环境的波动削弱了地方政府债务逆周期调控的力度。本文的政策主张是，不宜过度财政分权，应该扩大地方债发行规模，促使地方财政政策逆周期调节。     

不同监督情境下政府创新支持对企业研发投入的影响*——基于农业上市公司的实证研究

近年来，“三农”问题受到极大关注。为了应对外部资源、环境、科学技术等多重压力对农业升级与发展的影响，政府出台了诸多政策支持农业企业的技术研发与创新。本文从政府干预视角分析政府补助和税费返还两种形式的政府创新支持政策对农业企业研发投入的影响，重点分析机构投资者与大股东参与公司内部治理以及社会审计事务机构参与公司外部治理这两者所发挥的不同监督作用。研究发现：第一，不同形式的政府创新支持（政府补助和税费返还）对农业企业研发投入的影响并不一致。政府补助产生替代效应，税费返还则产生互补效应。第二，持股监督（机构投资者和大股东的持股比例上升）能增强政府补助对农业企业研发投入的替代效应，也能增强税费返还对农业企业研发投入的互补效应。第三，审计监督（社会审计事务机构的审计意见）会减弱政府补助支持对农业企业研发投入的替代效应，也会减弱税费返还对农业企业研发投入的互补效应。本文的研究发现为政府制定适宜的创新支持政策，以及合理发挥持股监督与审计监督的内外部治理作用，提供一定的决策依据和理论支持。     

Uncovering asset stripping during China's privatization

This paper empirically studies the occurrence and extent of asset stripping via undervaluing public assets during the mass privatization of state-owned and collectively owned enterprises in China. Using three waves of a national survey of private firms, we provide evidence that state-owned and collectively owned assets were substantially underpriced, indicating the presence of corruption during privatization. Further analysis shows that the extent of underpricing is more severe in regions with less market competition or weaker property rights protection, and more pronounced for intangible assets such as intellectual property rights and land use rights. When comparing firm efficiency between privatized firms and de novo private firms, we find that the former group continues to enjoy considerable preferential treatments, yet significantly underperforms the latter, possibly due to continued government control and intervention. Finally, we provide evidence that insider privatization is an important source of corruption during the privatization process.     

MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

地方政府债务空间与空间债务——基于地根经济的区位黏性视角

本文从人口流动的区位黏性这一全新视角，将地方政府性债务的李嘉图等价命题纳入新经济地理研究框架进行理论分析。为了进一步揭示理论模型的政策含义，采用空间计量方法验证沿海地区地方政府性债务的局部正相关特征。最优的债务政策取决于经济系统的初始条件，在非对称经济结构已经存在的情况下，单纯建设本地区的基础设施只会降低区域内的交易成本，这对于那些仅着眼于投巨资用于城市“硬件”建设的地方政府来说显然是一叶障目。建议依靠基础设施网络提高区域协同创新能力，培育规模报酬递增的专业化产业集群。