Sentiment-scaled CAPM and market mispricing

This study explores the conditional version of the capital asset pricing model on sentiment to provide a behavioural intuition behind the value premium and market mispricing. We find betas (β) and the market risk premium to vary over time across different sentiment indices and portfolios. More importantly, the state β derived from this sentiment-scaled model provides a behavioural explanation of the value premium and a set of anomalies driven by mispricing. Different from the static β–return relation that gives a flat security market line, we document upward security market lines when plotting portfolio returns against their state βs and portfolios with higher state βs earn higher returns.     

Is there a role for uncertainty in forecasting output growth in OECD countries? Evidence from a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive model

This paper uses a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive (TVP-PVAR) model to analyze the role played by domestic and US news-based measures of uncertainty in forecasting the growth of industrial production of 12 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Based on a monthly out-of-sample period of 2009:06 to 2017:05, given an in-sample of 2003:03 to 2009:05, there are only 46% of cases where domestic uncertainty can improve the forecast of output growth relative to a baseline monetary TVP-PVAR model, which includes inflation, interest rate and nominal exchange rate growth, besides output growth. Moreover, including US uncertainty does not necessarily improve the forecasting performance of output growth from the TVP-PVAR model which includes only the domestic uncertainty along with the baseline variables. So, in general, while uncertainty is important in predicting the future path of output growth in the 12 advanced economies considered, a forecaster can do better in majority of the instances by just considering the information from standard macroeconomic variables.     

Services inflation dynamics and persistence puzzle in Brazil: a time-varying parameter approach

This article analyses services inflation dynamics in Brazil, focusing on the Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle, for monthly data from January 2004 to February 2016. We apply a time-varying parameter (TVP) approach, via a Kalman filter, to estimate hybrid Phillips curves and compare inflation inertia for tradable goods and services inflation. Aggregate Brazilian Extended Consumer Price Index inflation serves as a benchmark. To justify the TVP analysis, parameter instability and structural change tests are implemented, based on OLS and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) frameworks. The main results are as follows: (i) the TVP approach is relevant due to observed instability in some parameters estimated; (ii) inflation expectation coefficients are higher than lagged inflation in all calculations, but inflation inertia is not negligible at all; (iii) services inflation persistence ranges from 27 to 36%, whereas tradable goods inflation persistence ranges from 36 to 47%, providing evidence of the Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle in Brazil; (iv) from 2009 onwards an increase in one percentage point in real wages raises monthly services inflation rate by 0.02 to 0.03 percentage point; (v) there is evidence that cost-push pressures, due to wage increases in the service sector, are more important to explain services inflation than demand pressures from early 2009 to mid-2014.     

Bayesian forecasting and portfolio decisions using dynamic dependent sparse factor models

We extend the recently introduced latent threshold dynamic models to include dependencies among the dynamic latent factors which underlie multivariate volatility. With an ability to induce time-varying sparsity in factor loadings, these models now also allow time-varying correlations among factors, which may be exploited in order to improve volatility forecasts. We couple multi-period, out-of-sample forecasting with portfolio analysis using standard and novel benchmark neutral portfolios. Detailed studies of stock index and FX time series include: multi-period, out-of-sample forecasting, statistical model comparisons, and portfolio performance testing using raw returns, risk-adjusted returns and portfolio volatility. We find uniform improvements on all measures relative to standard dynamic factor models. This is due to the parsimony of latent threshold models and their ability to exploit between-factor correlations so as to improve the characterization and prediction of volatility. These advances will be of interest to financial analysts, investors and practitioners, as well as to modeling researchers.     

Interrelationship between crude oil and the stock markets of major demanders and suppliers in emerging and developed markets

This paper investigates the time-varying relationship between the stock markets of advanced and emerging oil-exporting and oil-importing countries and the international crude oil price indices. The results reveal that the time-varying among the oil-exporting and oil-importing countries responds similarly to aggregate supply- and demand-side effects. Oil-exporting countries have a slightly higher integration with the oil markets, while oil supply shocks have a slightly higher impact on emerging oil-exporting countries. The oil markets exhibit a lower time-varying relationship with the Asia-Pacific oil-importing markets, which indicates those markets may be attractive to investors during periods of turbulence in the oil market.     

Assessing time-varying stock market integration in Economic and Monetary Union for normal and crisis periods

In this paper, we examine the stock market integration process amongst 17 Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries from January 2002 to June 2013 over a normal period as well as for the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Eurozone Debt Crisis (EDC) periods. We classify the economies in three groups (A, B and C) based on their GDP to examine whether the economic size influences financial integration. Seven indicators are used for the purpose, namely, beta convergence, sigma convergence, variance ratio, asymmetric DCC, dynamic cointegration, market synchronisation measure and common components approach. The results suggest that large-sized EMU economies (termed as Group A) exhibit strong stock market integration. Moderate integration is observed for middle-sized EMU economies with old membership (termed as Group B). Small-sized economies (termed as Group C) economies seemed to be least integrated within the EMU stock market system. The findings further suggest presence of contagion effects as one moves from normal to crisis periods, which are specifically stronger for more integrated economies of Group A. We recommend institutional, regulatory and other policy reforms for Group B and especially Group C to achieve higher level of integration.     

Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries

In this study, we estimate Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and time-varying structural VAR (TVP-VAR) models for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey to analyze the impacts of short-term interest rates on stock prices and exchange rates considering the relationships between these variables. BVAR and TVP-VAR models’ estimations indicate that monetary policy decisions of these countries lead to capital movements as well as capital movements may create a considerable amount of variation in exchange and stock markets both in the periods of economic stability and financial crisis. We also reveal that increases in interest rates intending to prevent capital outflows may lead to decrease in stock returns, which in turn may deteriorate the real economic activity in Indonesia, while changes in short-term interest rates in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey cannot be used as a tool to stabilize the value of their home currencies against the USD. Our study highlights the importance of formulating an optimal monetary policy framework accompanied by macro-prudential polices, which help to reach inflation target and smooth the possible variations in exchange rates and stock prices during economic crisis conditions in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.     

一种快速时变自适应信道估计盲方法

提出了一种新的信道估计最小均方(LMS)盲方法--时变步长理想加权判决信道估计盲方法.该方法通过对常规LMS算法进行改进,实现自适应跟踪信道特征变化;同时利用接收机判决误差信息函数作为权系数的理想加权判决,从而解决了常规LMS盲方法收敛速度慢、信道估计性能不高的缺点.仿真证明,对于不同的多普勒频移、时延扩展以及时间,该方法均表现出了比常规LMS方法更优的性能.同时,该方法还可用于航天、雷达等领域估计其他特征参数.     

Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in South Africa

The causal link between tourism receipts and GDP has recently become a major focus in the tourism economics literature. Results obtained in recent studies about the causal link appear to be sensitive with respect to the countries analysed, sample period and methodology employed. Considering the sensitivity of the causal link, we use rolling window and time-varying coefficient estimation methods to analyse the parameter stability and Granger causality based on a vector error correction model (VECM). When applied to South Africa for the period 1960–2011, the findings are as follows: results from the full-sample VECM indicate that there is no Granger causality between tourism receipts and GDP, while the findings from the time-varying coefficients model based on the state-space representation show that tourism receipts have positive-predictive content for GDP for the entire period, with the exception of the period between 1985 and 1990. Full-sample time-varying causality tests show bidirectional strong causality between tourism receipts and GDP.     

Capital Market Integration in the Middle East and North Africa

This paper studies capital market integration in Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries and its implications for international portfolio investment allocation. Starting with four cointegration methodologies, we significantly reject the hypothesis of a stable, long-run bivariate relationship between each of these markets and the European Monetary Union (EMU), the United States, and a regional benchmark. This indicates the existence of significant diversification opportunities for three categories of investors (EMU, world, and regional investors). A recursive analysis based on Barari (2004) suggests that recently, the MENA markets have started to move toward international financial integration. Investigating the effect of selected financial, economic, and political events on such a process, we extend the methodology and find that the markets react heterogeneously to the different categories of shocks. They should therefore not be treated as a bloc for global allocation purposes. Finally, after adjusting the integration levels by relative market capitalization, Israel and Turkey are the most promising markets in the region, followed by Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco. Tunisia and Lebanon seem to be lagging behind.