Big Data and Dietary Trend: The Case of Avocado Imports in China

ABSTRACT

The advancement of data science and technology presents a unique opportunity to understand rapidly evolving dietary trend around the world. In this case study, we show that the Baidu index, a measurement of the intensity of user searches for specific words, helps explain and forecast the growth of avocado imports in China. Specifically, we find that China’s avocado imports rise by 8% in response to a 10% increase in the Baidu index. Furthermore, the inclusion of the Baidu index in a standard demand model reduces the prediction error by 2.7%.     

The National Economic Benefits of Food Imports: The Case of U.S. Imports of Hass Avocados From Mexico

Imports of food products are often seen primarily as a threat to domestic producers while the broader economic impacts are ignored. Research on rapidly growing U.S. avocado imports has focused on the consequences for the U.S. avocado industry. This study conducts an economic impact analysis to measure the level and industry distribution of any benefits of U.S. imports of avocados from Mexico that may accrue to the U.S. national economy. We find that the US$1.5 billion in U.S. imports of Mexican avocados in 2015 had a positive and statistically significant effect on the U.S. economy in that year. Every dollar of avocado imports from Mexico in 2015 generated US$2.31 in U.S. output, US$1.41 in U.S. GDP, and US$0.79 in U.S. labor income. About 12.3 jobs were generated per US$1 million of imports. A separate econometric analysis corroborates the result. We conclude that imports of Mexican avocados are pro-growth for the U.S. economy.