Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method

Monitoring business cycles faces two potentially conflicting objectives: accuracy and timeliness. To strike a balance between these dual objectives, we propose a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to identify turning points in real time with a sequential stopping time as a solution. Using four monthly indexes of real economic activity in the United States, we evaluated the method’s real-time ability to date the past five recessions. The proposed method identified similar turning-point dates as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with no false alarms, but on average, it dated peaks four months faster and troughs 10 months faster relative to the NBER announcement. The timeliness of our method is also notable compared to the dynamic factor Markov-switching model: the average lead time was about five months when dating peaks and two months when dating troughs.     

Multiple Species Boreal Forests – What Faustmann Missed

Recent research in natural sciences shows that the dynamics in boreal forests are much more complex than what many models traditionally used in forestry economics reflect. This essay analyzes some challenges of accounting for such complexity. It shows that the optimal harvesting strategy for forest owners is history dependent and for some states of the forest, more than one strategy may be optimal.This paper confirms earlier literature on shallow lakes and coral reefs and shows that this kind of phenomena seem much more common than previously thought. They are valid for a wide range of ecosystems that cover large surfaces and they do not depend on the choice of some specific function to model the non-linearity. There are also indications that theses results could be obtained even for resources with concave growth if at least one species with non-linear growth affects their dynamics.     

绩效评估系统模式研究：组织公正视角

绩效评估中应该考虑的公正类型有四种：系统程序公正、评价者程序公正、互动公正和分配公正。典型的绩效评估系统包括系统方案设计、绩效计划制定、绩效沟通和辅导、绩效评价、绩效反馈面谈和评估结果运用。公正接触点发生在绩效评估的系统设计和流程的所有阶段，代表了员工对绩效评估系统中各要素的期望。本文结合绩效评估中的公正类型、评估流程以及公正接触点的概念构建了公正绩效评估系统模式。     

少数民族特色产业创新与发展的对策建议

少数民族地区经济是国民经济的重要组成部分,少数民族经济发展与否,直接关系到社会主义建设事业的成败。我国实现少数民族地区经济和少数民族特色经济的共同发展,是我国少数民族经济学科研究的一个具有重要现实意义的课题。研究少数民族特色产业创新与发展的对策建议,从国家层面上讲,应该制定和适时调整相应的政策、法规,从财政、税收、金融等方面加强对少数民族特色产业创新的支持;从地方政府层面讲,也应制定和修改相应政策、规定,并强化行政管理,为少数民族特色产业提供更多的优惠政策和资金支持;从企业层面讲,应加强制度管理,增强企业自身的竞争力,适应市场经济,做大做强少数民族特色产业。     

N106白车身测点优化及其应用

对N106白车身测点进行优化,合理减少测点数量,提高测量设备的利用率和抽检频率,并对测量数据进行统计,以过程控制图和CII指数的形式暴露问题,加强数据对质量问题的反馈,提高数据资源的利用率,更有效地指导车间质量改进和过程能力控制。     

N106自车身测点优化及其应用

对N106白车身测点进行优化,合理减少测点数量,提高测量设备的利用率和抽检频率,并对测量数据进行统计,以过程控制图和CII指数的形式暴露问题,加强数据对质量问题的反馈,提高数据资源的利用率,更有效地指导车间质量改进和过程能力控制。     

SIFT算法的介绍和应用

SIFT算法是众多图像匹配算法中被广泛应用的一种,其具有良好的尺度、光照和空间旋转不变等特征。文章介绍了SIFT算法的4个主要步骤,并将该算法应用到多色二值压缩算法中,提高了压缩效率,缩小了压缩后的存储空间。     

建筑空间限制条件下运用空心无梁楼盖设计实例分析

如今随着我国建筑技术的不断发展成熟,空心无量楼盖设计技术已经得到了比较广泛的应用,但是在施工过程中还存在一些问题需要注意。     

挤扩支盘灌注桩技术及其应用研究

挤扩支盘灌注桩是最新的一种土建施工方法,为了能够很好地推广应用此方法,文章首先对分析了挤扩支盘灌注桩的结构模型和其形成机理,其次对其桩身的受力原理进行了详细分析,然后结合施工案例得出了挤扩支盘灌注桩在施工过程中的注意要点和挤扩支盘灌注桩的优点。     

冷却管在大体积混凝土中的应用

文章结合工程实践,对大体积混凝土温度裂缝产生的描述,通过对大体积混凝土内部温度计算,增设冷却管降温措施,总结出大体积混凝土冷却管的设计与施工的施工要点。