Hedging and pricing early-exercise options with complex fourier series expansion

We introduce a new numerical method called the complex Fourier series (CFS) method proposed by Chan (2017) to price options with an early-exercise feature—American, Bermudan and discretely monitored barrier options—under exponential Lévy asset dynamics. This new method allows us to quickly and accurately compute the values of early-exercise options and their Greeks. We also provide an error analysis to demonstrate that, in many cases, we can achieve an exponential convergence rate in the pricing method as long as we choose the correct truncated computational interval. Our numerical analysis indicates that the CFS method is computationally more comparable or favourable than the methods currently available. Finally, the superiority of the CFS method is illustrated with real financial data by considering Standard & Poor’s depositary receipts (SPDR) exchange-traded fund (ETF) on the S&P 500® index options, which are American options traded from November 2017 to February 2018 and from 30 January 2019 to 21 June 2019.     

Mobile diaries – Benchmark against metered measurements: An empirical investigation

Researchers seeking to study the relationships between consumers' communications, attitudes, and behaviors could benefit from monitoring consumers over time, across multiple locations and channels, and in a way that reflects consumers' subjective perceptions. Diaries on smartphones (mobile diaries) can be used as a research tool for such purposes. A mobile diary is a self-report instrument whereby people use their mobile handset to repeatedly report experiences of interest. Mobile diaries are increasingly used in psychology, geography, medicine, and commercial marketing. Yet they have rarely been used for quantitative marketing research, and were not benchmarked against best-practice metrics in marketing.In this study, we aim to set the ground for using mobile diaries in quantitative marketing research. We first lay out the theoretical infrastructure for the usage of mobile diaries, and describe possible respondent reporting concerns, including concerns related to non-reporting, reporting over time, and concerns stemming from individual-level heterogeneity.We demonstrate the potential of mobile diaries, as well as the importance of the various concerns, using a benchmark test case in the context of primetime TV viewing. Our benchmark uses a sample of respondents with both mobile diary viewing reports and Nielsen People Meter (NPM) records. Our analysis reveals that averaging across all conditions, 47.4%–64.7% of the NPM records are reported by the diary. The major sources for mismatch are random time periods without alarms, short viewings, and periodic reporting inactivity (pulsing). Concerns such as a decrease in reporting rates over time (e.g., fatigue), smartphone ownership, and demographic variation across individuals have relatively small effects on reporting likelihood. Analyzing the cases in which diary reports do not have a matching NPM record, we find many of them can be attributed to out-of-home viewing and viewing on non-metered devices. This finding demonstrates how mobile diaries can complement metered measurements. Overall, aggregate diary-based ratings have a 0.90 correlation with NPM ratings.We discuss implications for designing and using mobile diary studies in marketing.     

Demystifying residents' walking behaviors: Active transport in South East Queensland,Australia

This study investigates the correlates of a resident's walking behaviors and aims to shed light on mechanisms through which walking may be encouraged. The results of this investigation paint a complex and nuanced picture of the residents’ walking behaviors in South East Queensland, Australia. The results suggest that sociodemographic characteristics separately may contribute greatly to whether or not one engages in walking behaviors. Further, cumulatively these differences might be greater for some groups of residents compared to others. One of the most prominent findings of the study is that the purpose, the characteristics of the origin, and the characteristics of the destination of a trip tended to be similar in the heterogeneity they exhibit over the distribution of time spent walking. For example, pick something up, undertake work, or engage in personal business, move to or from a workplace, shop, or social place are activities that tend to be associated with walking as a main mode of transport and a higher number of walking episodes. However, these trips tended to be short.     

Contemporaneous ADR pricing: intraday dynamics during overlapping trading hours

We contribute to the literature by identifying and accurately measuring the drivers of American depositary receipt (ADR) returns contemporaneously across various global time zones. We consider ADRs as two inherently distinct asset classes – stocks and currencies – bundled into one. Throughout, we use a relatively refined, focused, and synchronized minute-by-minute data set on ADRs and all other variables. ADRs from all countries with regular trading hours that overlap with those of the US are considered individually and in clusters. We analyze the interplay of several factors that influence ADRs pricing patterns. Further, we investigate whether such patterns vary by currency, ADR, industry, and emerging/developed market classifications. Our findings indicate that synchronized returns on underlying shares comprise 68.5–74% of the explained returns in ADRs. The remaining 31.5–26% of returns are generated by movements in currency rates. These results are robust across the several models and estimation methods employed. Our findings also show persistent small price discrepancies between ADRs and dollar-adjusted underlying shares on a minute-by-minute basis, implying possible arbitrage opportunities. However, we conclude that trading and ADR conversion costs render such opportunities unattractive.     

The Brexit effect: the case of UK ADR performance one year later

In an unexpected outcome, UK voters decided that it was time to exit the European Union based on the results of a vote held on 23 June 2016. Studies of the affects and implication of Brexit include a study showing that the vote was met with a negative short-term wealth effect for UK American depository receipts (ADRs). This study examines the one-year anniversary holding period returns of these ADRs along with the British Pound and the FTSE 100 to discover any lingering effects from the historical vote. Results indicate that the one-year holding period returns for the ADRs averaged 5.8% for the year while the FTSE gained 4.8%, the S&P 500 gained 15.4% and the Pound lost 13.2% of its value.     

The impact of real exchange rate shocks on manufacturing workers: An autopsy from the MORG

We study the impact of large real exchange rate shocks on workers in sectors initially more exposed to international trade using the Current Population Survey’s (CPS) Merged Outgoing Rotation Group (MORG) from 1979 to 2010 combined with new annual measures of imported inputs, a proxy for offshoring. We find that in periods when US relative prices are high, and imports surge relative to exports, workers in sectors with greater initial exposure to international trade were more likely to be unemployed or exit the labor force a year later, but did not experience significant declines in wages conditional on being employed. Contrary to the usual narrative, we find negative wage effects for higher-wage, but not lower-wage workers, particularly for those who are less-educated.     

What do professional forecasters actually predict?

This paper studies what professional forecasters predict. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into trend, business cycle, and irregular components. We examine which components are captured by professional forecasters by regressing their forecasts on the estimated components extracted from both the spectral analysis and the state space model. For both decomposition methods, we find that, in the short run, the Survey of Professional Forecasters can predict almost all of the variation in the time series due to the trend and the business cycle, but that the forecasts contain little or no significant information about the variation in the irregular component.     

Seeing history: a visual assessment of the historic-grounding of Old Western tourist towns

Despite the significant role that the visual plays in the experience of tourism, few studies have specifically examined the visual appearances of heritage tourist destinations. This study sought to analyze how historically grounded the visual appearances were of two heritage tourist towns in the state of Arizona: Tombstone and Jerome. These towns were both mining towns that experienced historic booms during the days of the American Old West and survive today as tourist destinations. This study utilized a detailed visual comparison of historic and contemporary town photographs in order to assess the relative historic-grounding of building exteriors and streets. It also incorporated the findings of interviews with tourists and town residents regarding their perceptions of visual historic-grounding. Study findings offered a means to assess and compare visual historic-grounding. Additionally, they suggested that while visual historic-grounding was important to visitors, it was one of several factors influencing their perceptions of the town's historic appearance: visual appeal, personal reflections, engaging activities, and previous visitor expectations of the American Old West (often grounded in filmic-representations) worked together to visually communicate a general impression of history within each town.     

Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage

We analyze the relationship between forecaster disagreement and macroeconomic uncertainty in the Euro area using data from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for the period 1999Q1–2018Q4 and find that disagreement is generally a poor proxy for uncertainty. However, the strength of this link varies with the dispersion statistic employed, the choice of either the point forecasts or the histogram means for calculating disagreement, the outcome variable considered and the forecast horizon. In contrast, distributional assumptions do not appear to be very influential. The relationship is weaker in subsamples before and after the outbreak of the Great Recession. Accounting for the forecasters’ entry to and exit from the survey has little impact on the results. We also show that survey-based uncertainty is associated with overall policy uncertainty, whereas forecaster disagreement is related more closely to the expected fluctuations on financial markets.     

Shrinking Cities,Shrinking Households,or Both?

Household size decline accounts for a substantial portion of population loss in shrinking cities, yet little research has focused on it. Much of the literature presents a simple growth/decline binary that is largely determined via population figures. In this paper, we highlight the importance and assess the impact of household size changes on population decline, and determine what types of household size declines are more acute in shrinking cities than other locales. We find that elderly households and households with school-aged children are under-represented in shrinking cities, while households with pre-school-aged children are over-represented. More tellingly, we find the biggest source of household-related loss in shrinking cities to be the growth of single-person households now living in houses that were once home to entire families. These findings puncture the binary on which much of the shrinking cities discourse is based. The population dynamics of most cities are subtler than either practitioners or critical scholars assert. We argue that plans and development strategies for shrinking cities should reflect a range of demographic changes, including outmigration and internal household restructuring.