照看子女、劳动参与和灵活就业:中国女性如何平衡家庭与工作

文章利用中国家庭收入调查2007和2008年数据研究了未成年子女对女性劳动参与和职业选择的影响。研究结果表明，家中有未成年子女显著降低了女性工作的可能性，提升了工作女性选择灵活就业的可能性；学龄前子女更有可能导致女性退出劳动力市场，而6-14岁子女更有可能导致女性选择灵活就业；不工作和选择灵活就业使女性更有可能成为学龄前子女的主要照顾者，但灵活就业并没有减少女性的工作时间；女性获得工作灵活性的代价是工资水平显著下降。上述结论在解决了女性劳动参与、职业选择和生育决策的内生性问题之后依然是稳健的。文章的结论对"全面二孩"政策背景保障女性就业有一定借鉴意义。     

Banding together in a festival context: Examining effects of a joint-stakeholder external service recovery

Despite substantial growth in revenue and attendance numbers on a global and country level over the past decades, failure is still a fairly common phenomenon in the events/festival industry. Drawing on two scenario studies and data collected in the United States, this research investigated the impact on festival-goers’ evaluations and behavior of joint-stakeholder external service recoveries, in contrast to the prevalent focus on examining service recoveries by a single stakeholder that caused the failure. Findings revealed that festival-goers had different perceptions of and behavioral intentions towards the various stakeholders depending on their perception of fault for the failure. Yet, rather than a predicted joint effect with failure severity, we found a significant interaction effect of the locus of causality with service recovery measures, either via an internal or external recovery. Implications of study findings and directions for future research are discussed.     

Joint audits and mutual ties of audit firm networks

There has been a lively debate following the 2007 financial crisis regarding the role of joint audits. Prior research argues that joint audits may improve audit quality because of shared audit efforts. However, empirical evidence has been inconclusive. To gain insight into how Big 4 audit firm imprimaturs have become a source of legitimacy in the audit industry, this article investigates how audit networks drive the audit industry in Saudi Arabia. Based on the application of quantitative and qualitative research methods, we conclude that the Big 4 audit firms have strong mutual ties, but ties with other local and international audit firms are weak. We also find the oligopolistic nature of the Big 4 audit firms and international audit firms. Specifically, Ernst & Young, KPMG, PwC, and PKF are controlling over 68% of the audit market. Interviews with accounting professionals suggest that several benefits of joint audits exist, but certain additional costs are also implicated. Our findings are particularly relevant for regulators and local and international policymakers in rethinking and evaluating the appropriateness of either the mandatory or voluntary nature of joint audits in developing countries.     

重大公共危机中科研协同团队识别研究——以诊断试剂为例

遴选合适的科研机构以整合成科研协同力量对于应对重大公共危机，尤其是对于防治和遏制新型冠状病毒肺炎等重大紧急疫情至关重要。首先，构建科研力量协同整合潜在对象识别理论模型，并在此基础上构建识别方法。以突发重大公共危机中的诊断试剂科研攻关为研究对象，以诊断试剂领域科研力量协同整合作为案例进行实证研究。最终识别出7个协同合作群组及29个关键核心机构，而且可将其整合为针对不同科研攻关需求的科研力量。结果还表明，在整合诊断试剂领域科研力量时，高校是与其它机构衔接的主要核心纽带，来自国家层面的科研院所及军队系统机构可以提供有力支持，而高新技术企业也是不可忽视的重要力量。     

中国省域科技特派员制度实施绩效评估

2016年5月《国务院办公厅关于深入推行科技特派员制度的若干意见》发布实施，但其实施效果如何有待验证。构建科技特派员制度实施绩效评估指标体系，利用改进熵值法和官方统计数据，对中国省域科技特派员制度实施绩效进行实证评估，并对评估结果进行聚类分析。结果表明，中国大多数省份科技特派员制度实施绩效水平较低；根据实施科技开发项目、形成利益共同体、服务农民情况、推广服务和扶贫成效5个绩效评估维度，可以将中国内地31个省份划分为5种类型；即使是总绩效水平较高的地区，在科技特派员制度实施绩效方面也存在一些短板。     

基于动态因子Copula模型的我国银行系统性风险度量

本文基于2007年至2019年我国14家上市银行的股票收益率,构建偏态t-分布动态因子Copula模型,利用时变荷载因子刻画单家银行与整个系统的相关性,计算联合风险概率作为系统性风险整体水平的度量,基于关联性视角提出了新的单家机构系统脆弱性和系统重要性度量指标——系统脆弱性程度和系统重要性程度。该方法充分考虑了银行个体差异性和系统的内在关联性以及收益率的厚尾性和非对称性,从而能够捕捉到更多的信息且兼具时效性。研究表明:银行机构在风险聚集时期相关程度更大,联合风险概率能够准确识别出系统性风险事件且在我国推行宏观审慎评估体系以后有明显降低;整体而言,大型商业银行系统重要性水平最高,同时风险抗压能力也最强;本文使用的度量方法降低了数据获取成本且更具时效性,有助于为宏观审慎差异化监管工作提供借鉴和参考。     

农业减量化：农户经营的规模逻辑及其证据

本文将农户分为五种类型,并将农地规模分解为地块规模、经营规模与连片规模,由此构建“农户类型—规模形式—减量化行为”的分析框架,进而阐明农户减量化的规模逻辑。基于农户问卷的实证分析表明:①对于所有样本农户来说,地块规模越大,减施量越高。其中,追求产量最大化的生产型小农,减施量与经营规模呈“倒U”型变化,而追求多元化经营的功能型小农,减施量随经营规模的扩大而增加;②农户连片规模扩大,减施量就增高,并且能够增强地块规模扩大以及经营规模扩大对减施的促进作用;③农户社会服务卷入程度加深,能够增强地块规模、经营规模和连片规模扩大对减施的促进作用。据此,农业减量化,应鼓励农户开展连片种植,形成生产性服务的市场容量,然后诱导服务供应商提供专业化服务,进而实现服务规模经营对农地规模经营的替代。     

人工智能在我国公共卫生建设中的应用与思考

新冠疫情的暴发以及长期防治对中国的公共卫生体系造成深远影响，给我国突发公共卫生事件应急与防控机制带来巨大的考验。在疫情防控的过程中，信息化技术为传统医疗机构带来瞩目的帮助与改变，人工智能、大数据、5G高速网络等新兴高科技的蓬勃发展在直接提升医疗水平方面表现出巨大潜力。本文就人工智能在疫情期间的医疗辅助功能展开讨论，并对未来我国公共卫生体系的建设进行了思考。     

基于联合研究实体的国家实验室网络化规律研究

对基于联合研究实体CMI的埃姆斯国家实验室网络化案例分析后发现，拉力（国家战略需求、问题综合复杂）和推力（自身发展追求、自我能力局限）共同驱动国家实验室网络化。强实力、精专业的优质网络节点、相似-差异-分散-役使四重属性叠加的网络关系以及星形网络结构，基于点、线、面三维视角形成了国家实验室网络化基本相态。在国家实验室需求的基础上，网络化规则体系通过实践探索自发生成，且反作用于网络化实践，为网络化文化形成提供了必要条件，成为实验室网络化持续演进的文化根基。最后，从网络化方式、依靠力量、相态、规则、嵌入情景与自主发展5个方面，总结出国家实验室网络化规律对我国国家实验室网络化发展的主要启示。     

Managing dynamic epidemiological risks through trade

There is growing concern that trade, by connecting geographically isolated regions, unintentionally facilitates the spread of invasive pathogens and pests – forms of biological pollution that pose significant risks to ecosystem and human health. We use a bioeconomic framework to examine whether trade always increases private risks, focusing specifically on pathogen risks from live animal trade. When the pathogens have already established and traders bear some private risk, we find two results that run counter to the conventional wisdom on trade. First, uncertainty about the disease status of individual animals held in inventory may increase the incentives to trade relative to the disease-free case. Second, trade may facilitate reduced long-run disease prevalence among buyers. These results arise because disease risks are endogenous due to dynamic feedback processes involving valuable inventories, and markets facilitate the management of private risks that producers face with or without trade.