价值链视角下中心城市创新首位度评价与比较研究——以南京为例

基于创新价值链理论，构建创新首位度的理论内涵与评价体系，对南京和其它中心城市的创新首位度进行评价与比较。研究结果显示：①在总体首位度方面，南京位列省域中心城市排名下游，落后于西安、成都、武汉、郑州、广州等国家中心城市，自2008年以来一直落后于深圳、杭州、合肥、苏州等对标竞争城市且差距较大；②在分项首位度方面，南京的研发创新、产业创新首位度位列省域中心城市排名底端，导致南京在两个首位度矩阵中均处于C象限，创新价值链呈现严重的不均衡性；③省域中心城市普遍存在创新价值链的“漏斗效应”，即知识创新首位度＞研发创新首位度＞产业创新首位度，南京尤甚，说明技术创新过程存在大量沟壑；④拓展性研究表明，省域中心城市的创新首位度＞经济首位度＞人口首位度，但是近十年3个首位度的增速排序与上述情况相反，说明创新资源有着更强的集聚效应，应避免行政手段对创新资源的错配。最后，提出对策建议与研究展望。     

Mass media and preferences for redistribution

This paper investigates how mass media potentially act on preferences for redistribution. Our hypothesis is that media contribute to shaping the value system of a person, which affects support for redistribution. A theoretical model is proposed which combines demand- and supply-driven media bias. On the demand side, the model considers two types of individuals: non-partisan, whose values are influenced by the media, and partisan, who have strong opinions not affected by the media. We assume that although partisan individuals prefer unbiased information, they hold beliefs that they like to be confirmed; therefore, they tend to consume media with an ideological position similar to theirs. On the supply side, we focus on interest groups’ pressure on media coverage. Our results suggest that the anti-equality lobby is willing to pay more than the competing lobby. Moreover, we show that media bias is a decreasing function of the advertising revenues and an increasing function of the relative weight of ideology vs pluralism in individuals’ demand for media. Adding a second media outlet reduces the likelihood of media bias but not its extent. Finally, if both lobbies are active, the two outlets’ ideological positions are polarised.     

税收优惠影响企业创新产出的多元机制研究——来自中国软件与集成电路产业的证据

创新政策一直是激励企业创新的重要手段，其中税收优惠政策是一种具有市场导向性的激励政策，对企业创新具有良好的促进作用，但是政策对企业产生激励作用的原因尚不清晰。选取对我国技术突破有重要作用的软件与集成电路企业，采用2006-2018年中国A股上市公司数据，聚焦2011年国家对软件与集成电路行业的两个税收优惠政策，运用双重差分法对企业创新产出影响进行实证研究。结果发现：税收优惠政策对发明专利申请有显著促进作用，而对非发明专利申请无显著影响。融资约束、企业避税行为等是税收激励政策发挥作用的主要渠道。另外，税收优惠政策对不同规模、产权和区域企业有不同影响，税收优惠政策对大型企业、国有企业以及中西部地区企业创新产出促进作用更大。从税收优惠政策长期影响看，该政策对专利申请的影响存在时滞性，而发明专利申请在政策发生当年就显著增加。研究结论可为明晰税收优惠政策、融资约束与企业创新产出间关系提供有益启示。     

Effects of time processing orientation, agreement preferences and attitude towards foreign businessmen on negotiation adaptation

An experiment was conducted among Singaporean executives to determine how they adapt to a foreign partner depending on the partner's time processing orientation and agreement preferences, and their attitude towards businessmen from the country the foreign partner was from. Results showed that Singaporean executives tended to have monochronic time processing and preferred written to oral agreements. Further, when a foreign partner exhibited a monochronic processing orientation, these executives had greater liking for and were more willing to accept this trait than when he had a polychronic processing orientation. Liking for the foreign partner was also enhanced. In terms of agreement preferences, the executives showed greater liking for and willingness to accept the trait when the foreign partner had a written than an oral preference. Finally, willingness to accept the foreign partner as a business partner was enhanced once they knew where the foreign partner came from, regardless of their attitude towards businessmen from that country. Implications are discussed and directions for future research furnished.     

Superhedging under ratio constraint

We consider superhedging of contingent claims under ratio constraint. It has been widely recognized that the minimum cost of superhedging a contingent claim with certain portfolio constraints is equal to the price of a claim with appropriately modified payoff but without constraints. In terms of the backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) and the variational inequality equation approach, we revisit this result and provide two counterexamples.     

我国居民杠杆率现状及影响因素研究

近年来,我国居民部门杠杆率的快速上升引起社会各界关注。本文使用货币信贷和城镇储户调查数据,对我国居民部门杠杆率和偿债能力现状进行了分析,并运用各省住户贷款数据计算各省的居民杠杆率,使用面板数据模型对居民杠杆率上升的原因进行了实证分析。结果表明,房价的快速上涨和住房销售的增长都对居民部门杠杆率的上升有显著正向影响,其中房价上涨的影响程度更大。此外,金融发展水平和老年人抚养比对居民杠杆率有正向影响,少年人抚养比对居民杠杆率有负向影响。     

卖空限制与收益可预测性——A股融资融券制度的证据

基于A股市场融资和融券余额的巨大差距,本文拓展了Hong et al.(2016)的理论模型,在融券端和融资端分别找到了影响股票收益率的变量:融券比率(融券余额/流通市值)和融资回补天数(融资比率/日均换手率)。进一步,本文利用组合价差法和Fama-MacBeth横截面回归法,实证检验了A股市场中融券比率与融资回补天数解释和预测股票收益率的能力。实证结果表明,在存在融券限制条件下,融券比率相比融券回补天数(融券比率/日均换手率)能更好地代表套利者对股票价格高估程度的看法,根据融券比率构建的等权重多空组合能带来月均1.58%的显著收益;而由于融资约束相对较少,融资回补天数相比融资比率(融资余额/流通市值)能更好地代表套利者对股票价格低估程度的看法,根据融资回补天数构建的等权重多空组合能带来月均1.28%的显著收益。实证结果与本文存在融券数量限制下的理论模型相符,且该收益率不能被多因子模型和常规股票特征所解释。     

基于银行流动性管理视角的宏观审慎与货币政策协调研究

本文从商业银行流动性管理视角出发,探究银行微观主体行为如何影响宏观审慎与货币政策的协调。我们借鉴净稳定资金比例的设计理念,将商业银行的流动性管理行为纳入传统理论模型,刻画出两种流动性管理行为对货币政策信贷传导渠道效率的潜在影响及传导路径。在此基础上,采用我国50家商业银行2012年第1季度—2018年第2季度面板数据进行实证检验。我们发现,银行为提升长期流动性水平而进行的优化信贷资产结构的行为,能够显著提高货币政策传导效率。但是,部分净稳定资金比例较低的股份制银行和城市商业银行调整非信贷资产结构的行为则有可能降低货币政策传导效率。因此,在执行既有流动性监管措施的同时,关注与引导银行资产结构调整方式,对增强宏观审慎与货币政策的协调大有裨益。     

Evaluating monetary policy under preferences with zero wealth effect: A Bayesian approach

Both real and monetary macro models have parallely exploited the potential for various preferences in accounting for empirical facts. This paper brings the two literatures together by estimating time non-separable preferences with habit formation in consumption that nests several commonly used preferences. In the absence of wealth effects and external habits, these preferences fail to generate observed inflation inertia and output persistence after a monetary policy shock. Furthermore, the data strongly rejects these preferences in favor of preferences with external habits. An alternative solution is to include habit adjusted intermediate wealth effect preferences which are able to simultaneously generate sluggish responses of the variables to a monetary policy shock and fit the data better.     

Measuring systemic risk-adjusted liquidity (SRL)—A model approach

Little progress has been made so far in addressing—in a comprehensive way—the negative externalities caused by excessive maturity transformation and the implications for effective liquidity regulation of banks. The SRL model combines option pricing theory with market information and balance sheet data to generate probabilistic measure of systemic liquidity risk. It enhances price-based liquidity regulation by linking a bank’s maturity mismatch impacting the stability of its funding with those characteristics of other banks, subject to individual changes in risk profiles and common changes in market conditions impacting funding and market liquidity risk. This approach can then be used (i) to quantify an individual institution’s time-varying contribution to expected losses from system-wide liquidity shortfalls and (ii) to price insurance premia that provide incentives for banks to internalize the social cost of their individual funding decisions.