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1.
徐国祥  吴婷  王莹 《金融研究》2021,490(4):38-54
本文将银行系统遭遇外部共同冲击作为研究起点,建立了一个共同冲击和异质风险交互传导与放大的简化模型,冲击的传导包括“原始冲击”、“增量冲击”和“违约冲击”三个风险传染阶段。基于2018年我国15家上市银行的股票收益率和年报数据、2006年至2018年的银行评级数据,本文构建了贝叶斯分层图模型和银行间拆借矩阵,并利用蒙特卡洛模拟测度不同触发银行所引发的系统性风险损失、单个银行的系统性风险杠杆能力(文中定义为“传染乘数”指标)以及政府监管介入的效果。模拟结果显示:共同冲击损失远大于异质风险损失;规模和网络关联性是决定传染乘数的重要因素,且当规模因素不突出时,网络关联性对传染乘数的决定作用相对更强,极容易出现小规模、高关联性银行具有较高的传染乘数;当银行风险资产损失率在10%至25%之间时,造成系统性风险损失的杠杆能力普遍增强;政府监管介入能较好地降低系统性风险。本研究的相关结论为系统性风险的监管设计提供经验证据和参考。  相似文献   
2.
ABSTRACT

We develop a Manipulation Index (ManIx) that captures the potential manipulation intention of dealers during the World Markets/Reuters (WMR) benchmark (London Close) period at 4 pm London time through a unique algorithm and simulation. The application of this model (using a dataset with dealers’ identities) can identify banks that are prone to potential manipulative behavior. The results concerning the identified banks are validated by the regulatory investigations. Implementation of this algorithm allows regulators better direct their limited resources towards more targeted in-depth investigation.  相似文献   
3.
Air travelers can carry an infectious disease's pathogenic microorganism in their bodies and spread the disease from one country to another in a few days. To delay the spread, health screening stations may be set up at airport terminals to screen travelers. This research tested three different health screening strategies, each with a different combination of screening stations at trip origins, destinations and connecting airports. Discrete event simulations were performed, based on the 2014 to 2016 Ebola virus epidemic, with special focus on travelers from the West African countries traveling to the United States, including travelers who transferred flights at airports in European Union member states. The effectiveness of the screening strategies was analyzed in terms of correct detection, missed detection and false alarm rate. The results showed that exit screening at trip origins brought big improvements in the performance measurements compared to no screening. However, additional screening at the destinations and connecting airports contributed marginal benefits.  相似文献   
4.
Managing the distribution of fuel in theater requires Army fuel planners to forecast demand at the strategic level to ensure that fuel will be in the right place, at the right time, and in the amounts needed. This work presents a simulation approach to forecasting that accounts for the structure of the supply chain network when aggregating the demand of war fighters across the theater over the forecasting horizon. The resulting empirical distribution of demand at the theater entry point enables planners to identify forecast characteristics that impact their planning process, including the amplitudes and temporal positions of peaks in demand, and the estimated lead time to the point of use. Experimentation indicates that the forecasts are sensitive to the pattern of war fighter demand, the precise structure of the in-theater supply chain network, and the constraints and uncertainty present in the network, all of which are critical planning considerations.  相似文献   
5.
现有关于网络环境下开放式创新的研究大都聚焦于内向型开放式创新,对于外向型开放式创新的关注不足。为更加真实地展现创新网络中知识创新、创新输出的整体行为机制,基于小世界网络仿真建模方法,从创新输出企业视角,探究创新输出与创新网络、创新绩效之间的内在关系。结果发现:网络关系强度、创新开放度与网络整体知识水平呈正相关关系,而个体网络规模与网络整体知识水平呈非线性相关关系;网络关系强度与网络知识水平分布均匀性呈正相关关系,创新开放度、个体网络规模与网络知识水平分布均匀性均呈非线性相关关系;当企业创新能力较强、解吸能力较弱时,网络整体知识水平和网络知识分布差异较大。创新输出企业可以结合网络结构和网络关系,优化创新网络、主体能力与创新开放度,制定开放策略,从而实现获取创新收益与保持自身竞争优势的双重平衡。  相似文献   
6.
The Indian food program has encountered a significant shortfall in storage due to slow expansion of storage facilities in comparison with procurement. The open storage of food grains results in substantial loss and deterioration of quality. While increasing storage capacity is a viable but costly and time consuming option, the adoption of policies for peak storage reduction would go a long way towards effective food grains management. On this background, this study proposes policy adoption for peak storage reduction for effective inventory management. A dynamic simulation model was built by replicating the complex flow process and incorporating the process variability for finding the bottleneck and significant factors. It was found that steep wheat procurement is the critical bottleneck factor for peak storage requirements. Two practical and straightforward, yet effective policies are proposed from the few existing strategies for peak storage reduction owing to the constraints associated with the food program. With the actual data of the food program, reduction in peak stock was estimated for the recommended policies, including the operational cost saving in storage. The practical implications of these policies within the system were also discussed. Through peak reduction, the use of open storage can be significantly reduced, and this leads to better food grains management for effective food distribution.  相似文献   
7.
This paper analyzes the impact of walking speed on tourist carrying capacity. To do so, a combination of simulation experimentation and on-the-ground experiment is suggested to work in a study case, Maiji Mountain Grottoes, China. The simulation findings indicate that walking speed has a negative impact on tourist carrying capacity and the correlation coefficient is 0.64, for the reason that walking takes up more space. The on-the-ground experiment shows that carrying capacity is not a unified limit all over a destination, but changeable temporally and spatially, and its estimation needs to be adjusted according to the minimum area required per tourist and tourist activity. The method applied in this paper and the simulation findings can serve as a methodological tool for further research about tourist carrying capacity where the main activity of tourists is walking while watching.  相似文献   
8.
This article considers ultrahigh-dimensional forecasting problems with survival response variables. We propose a two-step model averaging procedure for improving the forecasting accuracy of the true conditional mean of a survival response variable. The first step is to construct a class of candidate models, each with low-dimensional covariates. For this, a feature screening procedure is developed to separate the active and inactive predictors through a marginal Buckley–James index, and to group covariates with a similar index size together to form regression models with survival response variables. The proposed screening method can select active predictors under covariate-dependent censoring, and enjoys sure screening consistency under mild regularity conditions. The second step is to find the optimal model weights for averaging by adapting a delete-one cross-validation criterion, without the standard constraint that the weights sum to one. The theoretical results show that the delete-one cross-validation criterion achieves the lowest possible forecasting loss asymptotically. Numerical studies demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed variable screening and model averaging procedures over existing methods.  相似文献   
9.
In an economic context, forecasting models are judged in terms not only of accuracy, but also of profitability. The present paper analyses the counterintuitive relationship between accuracy and profitability in probabilistic (sports) forecasts in relation to betting markets. By making use of theoretical considerations, a simulation model, and real-world datasets from three different sports, we demonstrate the possibility of systematically or randomly generating positive betting returns in the absence of a superior model accuracy. The results have methodological implications for sports forecasting and other domains related to betting markets. Betting returns should not be treated as a valid measure of model accuracy, even though they can be regarded as an adequate measure of profitability. Hence, an improved predictive performance might be achieved by carefully considering the roles of both accuracy and profitability when designing models, or, more specifically, when assessing the in-sample fit of data and evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performances.  相似文献   
10.
The disproportionate concentration of healthcare professionals in urban areas is a concern in many countries, including Canada. A need to address this rural care gap has driven a large number of government led initiatives worldwide over the years. This paper presents a model that can be used as a tool to examine the efficacy of such policies on the workforce distribution in the long term. A small system dynamics model is employed to simulate the current and future distribution of general physicians at a jurisdictional level. The model represents the transition of general practitioners to provide insight into the dynamics of care provision over time. The movement, and competition, between rural and urban areas is modeled to enable detailed exploration of the ability for proposed measures to alleviate the care gap in the future. Among the tested policies are such commonly used initiatives as financial incentives to rural professionals, promotion of medical education in rural areas, expansion of rural education programs and the engagement of international medical graduates etc. We demonstrate how the model can be used as a tool to determine an efficient and well-chosen combination of policies which can help alleviate the rural care gap in the future, given that some policies are more effective than others alone but also combined with other initiatives. The presented small system dynamics model is tested on Canada's reality, but its simple nature lends itself to easy application to other countries that experience a similar problem.  相似文献   
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