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1.
ABSTRACT

The economic literature on capital flows to developing countries has shared two important commonalities since the 1990s. Published works (whether they focus on the external situation or stress the domestic determinants of capital flows) tend to assume a beneficial effect of capital inflows, which leads to an improvement of peripheral institutions, whose deficiencies are ostensibly the main cause of economic turmoil and/or failure in attracting capital flows, in continuity with New Institutional Economics. In doing so, mainstream economists deliberately overlook the asymmetric characteristics of the international monetary system and the persisting hegemony of dollar. Raul Prebisch’s pioneering work on business cycles in Latin America provide an alternative view, one capable of amending the existing mainstream literature. On the one hand, Prebisch stressed the destabilizing role of capital inflows on Latin American economies, particularly short-term speculative capital. On the other hand, Prebisch designed a set of counter cyclical monetary policies in order to contrast capital volatility, particularly during downturns. An analysis of stylized facts shows that, when correctly updated, Prebisch’s theory has remarkable explanatory potential when applied to Latin America’s current economic and financial situation.  相似文献   
2.
目的 家庭生命周期是研究农户行为的重要理论视角。文章借鉴家庭生命周期理论的内涵,利用扬州市邗江区289户微观样本,剖析家庭生命周期视角下农村居民点整理的农户意愿的影响因素。方法 统计分析法和有序Logit模型。结果 (1)家庭生命周期特征变量对农村居民点整理的农户意愿有显著影响,其影响程度由大到小依次为初始家庭>成熟的核心家庭>成长中的核心家庭>扩大家庭>萎缩家庭;(2)政策了解程度、家庭年收入、承包地面积、农民收益增加、子女就学条件改善和居住环境改善是影响农村居民点整理的农户意愿的关键因素。但在不同家庭生命周期阶段,农村居民点整理的农户意愿的关键因素存在异质性;(3)在不同家庭生命周期阶段中,农村居民点整理的农户意愿既有共同的影响因素,也存在差异性影响因素。结论 应重视农户的家庭生命周期阶段特征和演变规律,并将其作为制定农村居民点整理政策的重要依据;针对不同家庭生命周期阶段中农户意愿的共同因素,采取普适性措施;对各家庭生命周期阶段中农户意愿的差异性因素进行识别,“对症下药”。  相似文献   
3.
财政政策工具实际操作偏离最初设计将会降低政策工具的调控效果,导致宏观经济波动加剧。针对地方政府财政政策的逆周期性调控目标,本文关注财政分权深化和政府债务增发的逆周期性效应。研究发现:地方政府财政政策总体呈现顺周期特征。财政分权程度的提高放大了地方财政政策的顺周期性。地方政府债务增发使地方财政政策呈现逆周期特征。地方政府财政政策及其收入面、支出面均呈现顺周期性,由“顺”转“逆”的债务平衡点分别为0137,0113,0209。当前绝大部分地区的债务规模都在债务平衡点之下。驱动地方政府债务逆周期调控的内在因素是官员晋升激励。晋升激励的程度越高,地方债务逆周期调控的力度就越大。但外部市场融资环境的波动削弱了地方政府债务逆周期调控的力度。本文的政策主张是,不宜过度财政分权,应该扩大地方债发行规模,促使地方财政政策逆周期调节。  相似文献   
4.
To lead effectively in a VUCA (i.e., volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) environment, leaders must quickly and continuously acquire new skills. However, formal development opportunities aren’t nearly enough to support the ongoing skill development leaders need to manage the level of complexity and change they are facing. Instead, leaders must take ownership of their own development. In this paper, we describe a straightforward, four-step process that leaders can implement to pursue their individualized development through leader development planning. Specifically, we walk leaders through the evidence-based steps of creating their unique leader development plan (LDP), including (1) identifying their leadership strengths and weaknesses, (2) setting effective leader development goals, (3) designing SMART strategies, and (4) reflecting, refining, and realigning their plan. Throughout the article, we detail positive examples as well as common pitfalls that we observed from our work supporting 101 mid- to senior-level leaders in designing their LDPs. Our purpose in doing so is to provide tools and examples to enable leaders at all levels to drive their development at their own pace.  相似文献   
5.
We study the welfare costs of business cycles in a search and matching model with financial frictions. The model replicates the volatility on labor and financial markets. Business cycle costs are sizable. Indeed, the interactions between labor market and financial frictions magnify the impact of shocks via (i) a credit multiplier effect and (ii) an endogenous wage rigidity inherent to financial frictions. In addition, in a nonlinear framework, large welfare costs of fluctuations are explained by the high average unemployment and the low job finding rates with respect to their deterministic steady‐state values.  相似文献   
6.
The paper provides evidence that fiscal rules can limit the political budget cycle. It uses data on Italian municipalities during the 2000s and shows that: 1) municipalities are subject to political budget cycles in capital spending; 2) the Italian sub-national fiscal rule (Domestic Stability Pact, DSP) introduced in 1999 has been enforced by the central government; 3) municipalities subject to the fiscal rule show more limited political budget cycles than municipalities not subject to the rule. In order to identify the effect, we rely on the fact that the domestic fiscal rule does not apply to municipalities below 5000 inhabitants. We find that the political budget cycle increases real capital spending by about 10–20 percent on average in the years prior to municipal elections and that municipalities subject to the DSP show a pre-electoral increase in capital spending which is only a quarter of the one of municipalities not subject to the rule.  相似文献   
7.
Cycle time forecasting (CTF) is one of the most crucial issues for production planning to keep high delivery reliability in semiconductor wafer fabrication systems (SWFS). This paper proposes a novel data-intensive cycle time (CT) prediction system with parallel computing to rapidly forecast the CT of wafer lots with large datasets. First, a density peak based radial basis function network (DP-RBFN) is designed to forecast the CT with the diverse and agglomerative CT data. Second, the network learning method based on a clustering technique is proposed to determine the density peak. Third, a parallel computing approach for network training is proposed in order to speed up the training process with large scaled CT data. Finally, an experiment with respect to SWFS is presented, which demonstrates that the proposed CTF system can not only speed up the training process of the model but also outperform the radial basis function network, the back-propagation-network and multivariate regression methodology based CTF methods in terms of the mean absolute deviation and standard deviation.  相似文献   
8.
This article examines the effect of changes in sovereign credit ratings and their outlook on the stock market returns of European countries at different phases of business cycle. Using standard four-factor model, it records a significant average marginal effect of credit rating announcements on stock market returns. Both magnitude and significance of the effect vary with business cycle and across announcement types. However, we do not find evidence of pro-cyclical effect of sovereign rating and outlook changes on stock returns. Our results show that stock markets react more negatively to rating downgrades in recovery phases and more positively to rating upgrades in contractionary period. Both results are statistically significant and robust to various sensitivity tests.  相似文献   
9.
We apply well-known results of the econometric learning literature to the Mortensen and Pissarides real business cycle model. Agents can always learn the unique rational expectations equilibrium (REE), for all possible well-defined sets of parameter values, by using the minimum-state-variable solution to the model and decreasing gain learning. From this perspective the assumption of rational expectations in the model could be seen as reasonable. But using a parametrisation with UK data, simulations show that the speed of convergence to the REE is slow. This type of learning dampens the cyclical response of unemployment to small structural shocks.  相似文献   
10.
文章基于中国上市银行1998-2013年的数据,采用固定效应模型,对16家中国上市银行信贷行为的周期性进行了研究。研究表明,中国上市银行的信贷行为表现为阶段顺周期性和阶段逆周期性;银行规模对其周期性也有较大影响,规模较小银行或同一银行在规模较小阶段其信贷的逆周期性更显著。由于当前我国政府对宏观经济及银行行为的干预程度较大,银行监管当局所制定监管政策的针对性及有效性将受到很大削弱,因此文章建议政府的宏观经济调控政策与银行的监管政策必须相互协调,这是未来防范经济危机与金融危机,促进中国经济健康持续发展,保持中国金融系统稳健经营的必然选择。  相似文献   
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