Political forecast cycles

A moral hazard model is used to show why overly optimistic revenue forecasts prior to elections can be optimal: Opportunistic governments can increase spending and appear more competent; ex post deficits emerge in election years, thereby producing political forecast cycles – as also found for US states in the empirical literature. Additionally, we obtain three theoretical results which are tested with panel data for Portuguese municipalities. The extent of manipulations is reduced when (i) the winning margin is expected to widen; (ii) the incumbent is not re-running; and/or (iii) the share of informed voters (proxied by education) goes up.     

科技企业孵化器何以激活区域创新——风险投资与孵化基金的中介作用

完善创新生态系统、提升区域创新能力是我国科技企业孵化器建设的重要目标。基于2013-2018年中国（内地）30个省份面板数据，采用面板数据模型实证检验科技企业孵化器是否促进了区域创新能力提升，并基于中介效应模型探讨风险投资和孵化基金在其中的间接作用。结果发现：①科技企业孵化器建设显著提升了区域创新水平，但主要增加的是实用新型和外观设计专利申请授权数总量，对发明专利申请授权数并没有显著促进作用。上述结果在剔除直辖市样本、采用随机效应模型及空间计量模型的稳健性检验后依然成立；②通过中介效应模型检验发现，区域风险投资和孵化基金集聚效应是科技企业孵化器影响区域创新水平的主要机制；③科技企业孵化器对区域创新的影响在不同区域间差异较大，在东部地区的创新激励效应更加显著，而且政策工具强度对科技企业孵化器与区域创新水平的关系具有正向调节作用。     

Legally astute managers as a source of value in organizations

The legal and compliance departments in organizations have more influence than ever before. Why then are companies so vulnerable to legal liability? The problem may not be with talented legal professionals, but with the lack of legal knowledge held by MBAs and other business school graduates that make day-to-day decisions in modern organizations. Firms can close this knowledge gap and minimize legal liability by training their managers in legal astuteness—the ability of a manager to address legal issues successfully—by instilling four essential traits: respecting the rule of law, recognizing legal issues, resolving problems proactively, and reporting complex legal issues to experts. Job candidates should also be screened for traits of legal astuteness. A legally astute candidate, especially a graduate of a business school that requires legal education for all its students, can be a cultural ambassador for legal astuteness and a valuable liaison between legal and compliance departments and the candidate’s functional area. A legally ignorant candidate will require significant training and a frank assessment of the legal risk they bring to the organization. Modern firms in today’s legal environment face two choices: hire a legally astute manager now or deal with a compliance headache later.     

协调度视角下长江流域产业转移效率研究

实现区域经济协调发展是当前我国在块集聚与点极化双重压力下面临的现实难题，长江经济带尤其是欠发达省份承接发达地区产业转移是解决该难题的必然路径选择。产业转移活动因区域主客体特征变量不同，呈现出典型的多发式转移和门槛转移特征，使得区域政策制定缺乏科学指导，陷入盲目拼政策红利的状态。结合效率模型及考虑熵权的经济社会发展协同度分析，测算了2004-2016长江经济带各省（市）年综合产业转移效率，并考察了门槛效应值及变化趋势。结果表明：在考察期内，长江经济带各省（市）产业转移效率提升较为明显，但不少省（市）存在不协调的阶段性平衡关系，且这种关系还未显露经济总量驱动下的协同发展能力。     

深化学科认知与构建中国特色社会主义政治经济学理论体系

对学科的认知包括认识学科内涵、学科性质与任务、学科发展进路等核心问题,关系到如何构建学科体系,是学科建设的重要内容。从深化学科认知的视角,中国特色社会主义政治经济学的学科发展与理论体系构建,要坚持几个重大原则,包括把中国特色社会主义政治经济学建立在历史唯物主义的基础之上;要以生产关系分析为核心来构建中国特色社会主义政治经济学的理论范式;坚持以人民为中心是中国特色社会主义政治经济学的本质属性;把共同富裕作为中国特色社会主义政治经济学的逻辑主线;以问题为导向研究新时代中国特色社会主义建设的重大理论与实践问题;《中国特色社会主义政治经济学》教材要体现学科的创新发展。     

Analysis of territorial compatibility for Seveso-type sites using different risk assessment methods and GIS technique

The increasing size of chemical plants and rapid growth in residential areas has led to many incompatible land-use scenarios in the last 100 years. In this context, the authors assume that assessment and planning have their significant role in preventing the juxtaposition of hazards and population, and that, in this field, there is a broad recognition of the need for legislative and policy consistency across the European Union. The paper presents a comparative case study in which the Romanian land-use planning (LUP) criteria and the risk-based quantitative approach for a chemical plant are applied. Accident scenarios involving chlorine and propylene arecomprehensively analyzed using consequence and risk modelling software and GIS technique for the territorial compatibility assessment. The objective of the paper is threefold. Firstly, it presents an overview about current risk analysis methods; secondly, the authors advance an understanding of risk assessment practices used in several countries for the prevention and control of major industrial accidents involving dangerous substances and, also, for LUP. Thirdly, a method targeting an improved risk assessment framework for LUP, encompassing Romania’s determinants is outlined. The results obtained using the two different approaches indicate significant differences regarding the possibly affected areas and territorial compatibility. Furthermore, based on the findings, the paper ends with a set of recommendations that can be transformed into the foundation for future enactments of new safety standards that cover risk assessment for LUP. Consequently, the present study aims to become a frame of reference for decision-makers towards more sustainable and updated risk assessment practices in the field of industrial activities.     

二代涉入、制度情境与中国家族企业创新投入——基于社会情感财富理论的研究

基于社会情感财富理论,本文以2012-2016年中国A股上市家族企业为样本,采用倾向得分匹配法,对一定制度情境下二代涉入对家族企业创新投入的影响进行实证研究。研究结果表明:二代涉入会抑制家族企业的创新投入,发生二代涉入的家族企业会更重视约束型社会情感财富,而该类社会情感财富会导致家族企业对创新投入持保守态度;制度环境对二代涉入与家族企业创新投入之间的关系具有正向调节效应,从而会缓和二代涉入对家族企业创新投入的抑制作用;政治关联对二代涉入与家族企业创新投入之间的关系具有负向调节效应,从而会加剧二代涉入对家族企业创新投入的抑制作用。据此,本文建议:发生二代涉入的家族企业不能为了加强对企业的控制而排斥引入外部优良人才或外部投资者,创始人应该注重二代成员对家族企业归属感等的培养,提升二代成员对延伸型社会情感财富的保护意愿;政府和家族企业必须共同努力推进市场化改革,藉此完善家族企业赖以生存的制度环境;家族企业应当尽量避免政治寻租等行为对创新的抑制作用。     

非互惠的零关税待遇是否促进了受惠国的出口多样化——基于中美对非洲贸易政策的比较研究

非互惠的优惠贸易待遇是世界贸易组织和国际社会支持发展中国家尤其是最不发达国家发展的重要工具。为了评估该政策的效果,本文以中美对非洲实施的零关税待遇为例,采用2001—2017年HS8位贸易数据从整体、行业和区域层面评估了两种政策对受惠国出口多样化产生的影响。结果显示,美国零关税待遇分为AGOA-GSP和AGOA-服装两个条款,中国零关税待遇(FOCAC)在遵循WTO规则、受惠商品范围、受惠国家标准、原产地标准及政策有效期方面均优于AGOA-GSP,但在原产地标准灵活度和政策优惠力度方面低于AGOA-服装。这些特征导致三类政策对受惠国出口多样化的影响产生显著的差异。整体上,FOCAC和AGOA-服装对受惠国出口多样化均产生了显著的积极影响,而AGOA-GSP的影响不显著;行业层面,FOCAC对受惠国制造业、矿业和农业的出口多样化均产生了显著的促进作用,而AGOA的两个条款对受惠国三个细分行业出口多样化的影响均不显著;区域层面,三类政策对受惠国出口多样化的影响仅在部分区域发挥效果。     

“双高计划”呼唤高职院校补齐教师队伍建设短板

教师是兴教之本、立教之源,是实施"双高计划"建设最重要、最直接的力量。大力加强教师队伍建设是高职院校高质量发展的迫切要求。当前高职院校教师队伍存在总量不足、高层次人才短缺、双师素质不高、创新能力不强等问题,必须引育结合、创新机制、激发活力,补齐短板,提升整体实力和水平。     

Overconfidence and tax avoidance: The role of CEO and CFO interaction

We investigate how overconfident CEOs and CFOs may interact to influence firms’ tax avoidance. We adopt an equity measure to capture overconfident CEOs and CFOs and utilize multiple measures to identify companies’ tax-avoidance activities. We document that CFOs, as CEOs’ business partners, play an important role in facilitating and executing overconfident CEOs’ decisions in regard to tax avoidance. Specifically, we find that companies are more likely to engage in tax-avoidance activities when they have both overconfident CEOs and overconfident CFOs, compared with companies that have other combinations of CEO/CFO overconfidence (e.g., an overconfident CEO with a non-overconfident CFO), which is consistent with the False Consensus Effect Theory. Our study helps investors, regulators, and policymakers understand companies’ decision-making processes with regard to tax avoidance.