江苏经济高质量发展本质、态势与对策

以科技革命和产业变革为主要特征的新工业革命方兴未艾,与朱格拉周期形成叠加,与经济高质量发展形成难得的历史交汇。当前江苏站到了新工业革命与经济高质量发展融合的全新起点,开启了经济增长新周期,致力于改善经济运行质量,提高经济效益。研究表明,新工业革命与经济高质量发展呈现相互依存、相互融合、协调发展的总趋势。文章通过对江苏经济高质量发展态势分析,把握新时代江苏的新方位、新坐标,推动新旧动能转换,实现江苏经济增长由"L型"向"V型"转变,彰显经济高质量发展的"江苏作为",为其他区域经济发展提供现实观照。     

Tourism,terrorism and political violence in Tunisia: Evidence from Markov-switching models

This study investigates the impact of terrorist attacks and political violence on the number of tourist arrivals and overnight stays in Tunisia. The dataset employed consists of monthly data that covers the period from January 2000 to September 2016, which includes several political and terrorist attacks in Tunisia and the region. Empirically, we investigate the true data generating process (DGP) of these two proxies of tourism activity by accounting for four statistical properties that characterize these series: (1) seasonality, (2) unit roots, (3) breaks, and (4) long memory behavior.Our empirical findings show strong evidence of stationarity, five breaks in the tourist arrival time series and spurious long memory behavior. By estimating a 3-state Markov switching model consisting of the mean, trend, and variance, we find that the Tunisian Jasmine revolution and two recent terrorist attacks, one at the Bardo National Museum on March 18, 2015 and the other at the tourist resort at Port El Kantaoui, Sousse on June 26, 2015, played an important role in influencing the tourism activity of the country. Our empirical findings show also that local shocks have a more important impact than international shocks in influencing tourism activity. Interestingly, we find that the effects of terrorist shocks have a long duration compared to political violence shocks. Several security, marketing, and economic policies have been proposed and discussed in the paper.     

人工智能技术变革对国际贸易的影响

人工智能技术的快速发展正催生第四次工业革命,可能引发全球价值链深度重构和世界经贸格局重大变革。世界主要经济强国将发展人工智能技术作为争夺新一轮产业竞争优势的重要战略抓手。本文基于全球价值链视角研究人工智能技术变革对国际贸易的影响,我们发现人工智能技术变革可能推动国际贸易规模扩大,提升服务贸易份额,并促进国际贸易交易模式平台化、小宗化,可为中小企业创造更多参与国际贸易的机会。然而,人工智能技术变革也可能通过降低企业劳动力需求从而对我国等发展中国家的出口拉动型增长模式造成严重的潜在威胁。为应对人工智能技术变革,我国应部署并强化对人工智能产业发展的政策支持,加快培育制造业国际竞争新优势,大力推动先进制造业与现代生产性服务业深度融合发展,全面促进"中国制造"攀升全球价值链中高端。     

Men at work. Wages and industriousness in southern Sweden 1500–1850

ABSTRACT

In his classic works on the industrious revolution, Jan de Vries argues that demand for new consumer goods trigged eighteenth century Europeans to work more. This implies that industrious behaviour and new consumption patterns were two parallel and interdependent processes that preceded the industrial revolution. However, there is an alternative explanation for any increase in labour output on household level, namely that the labourers were forced to work more to meet ends. An indication of this could be that day labourers’ relative wages decreased over time. In this article, we investigate this by studying wages from annual and casual labour in southern Sweden and compare their levels with consumption baskets.     

War and economy. Rediscovering the eighteenth-century military entrepreneur

Abstract

The detrimental effects traditionally assigned to warfare in the development of pre-industrial economies have obscured the prominent role that military entrepreneurs played in economic development in this period. Historiography minimises the extent to which war and the concomitant strengthening of the central state provided a whole new range of opportunities for capital investment, a tendency that has been strengthened by the paradigm of Redlich’s ‘decline of the soldier-entrepreneur’ and the technological determinism of the debate on the Military Revolution among others. The aim of this introduction is to look into the background of this relative lack of interest and to reaffirm the mutual dependence of eighteenth-century state-formation and the business of war.     

新旧动能转换的理论探索与实践研判

新旧动能转换是实现创新驱动、推动经济由高速度增长向高质量发展的重大战略举措。从世界范围看，新旧动能转换不仅是世界经济演进的客观规律，也是新技术革命持续发展的必然要求。从国内发展看，新旧动能转换是中国迈向全球价值链中高端、进入经济发展新时代的根本出路。本文通过考察新旧动能转换的内涵和模式，进而从技术效率和技术进步二维视角分析新旧动能转换的动态演进。新旧动能转换包含要素、企业、产业和社会四个层面的着力点。新旧动能转换存在从政府主导走向政府引导、从经济领域走向社会领域、从重点示范走向全面推进、从要素驱动走向创新驱动、从渐进式革新走向颠覆性创新等多条发展路径。     

The Effect of the Arab Spring on Preferences for Redistribution in Egypt

This paper investigates the effect of the revolution that occurred in January 2011 in Egypt on the demand for redistribution in that country, which has drastically increased since that period. This shock has been an important event, enhancing freedom and the political structure. In a first step, taking into account the main determinants of preferences for redistribution in the literature, our results differ, showing a positive impact of religion and a negative impact of altruistic attitudes. In a second step, we rely on a diff-in-diff approach to estimate the effect of the revolution, using three similar countries as a control group. We find that Egyptians became much more favorable to redistribution after the Arab Spring. Moreover, the revolution effect is stronger for the poorest people and those who are interested in politics.     

The visible hand: the role of government in China’s long-awaited industrial revolution

China is undergoing its long-awaited industrial revolution. There is no shortage of commentary and opinion on this dramatic period, but few have attempted to provide a coherent, in-depth, political-economic framework that explains the fundamental mechanisms behind China’s rapid industrialization. This article reviews the Embryonic Economic Development theory put forth by Wen (2016a). This article reviews the Embryonic Economic Development theory put forth by Wen . It illuminates the critical sequence of developmental stages since the reforms enacted by Deng Xiaoping in 1978: namely, small-scale commercialized agricultural production, proto-industrialization in the countryside, a formal industrial revolution based on mass production of labor-intensive light consumer goods, a sustainable ‘industrial trinity’ boom in energy/motive power/infrastructure, and a second industrial revolution involving the mass production of heavy industrial goods. This developmental sequence follows essentially the same pattern as Great Britain’s Industrial Revolution, despite sharp differences in political and institutional conditions. One of the key conclusions exemplified by China’s economic rise is that the extent of industrialization is limited by the extent of the market. One of the key strategies behind the creation and nurturing of a continually growing market in China is based on this premise: The free market is a public good that is very costly for nations to create and support. Market creation requires a powerful ‘mercantilist’ state and the correct sequence of developmental stages; China has been successfully accomplishing its industrialization through these stages, backed by measured, targeted reforms and direct participation from its central and local governments.     

Spatial takeoff in the first industrial revolution

Using the framework of Desmet and Rossi-Hansberg (forthcoming), we present a model of spatial takeoff that is calibrated using spatially-disaggregated occupational data for England in c. 1710. The model predicts changes in the spatial distribution of agricultural and manufacturing employment which match data for c. 1817 and 1861. The model also matches a number of aggregate changes that characterise the first industrial revolution. Using counterfactual geographical distributions, we show that the initial concentration of productivity can matter for whether and when an industrial takeoff occurs. Subsidies to innovation in either sector can bring forward the date of takeoff while subsidies to the use of land by manufacturing firms can significantly delay a takeoff because it decreases spatial concentration of activity.     

自由主义民主的解蔽与超越--基于艾伦·梅克森斯·伍德对麦克弗森的批判

伍德认为麦克弗森的自由主义民主理论没有方法论或理论可能性，没有正确揭示自由主义民主同资本主义之间的关系。资本主义并不能借助于自由主义民主获得永恒的生命力，自由主义民主也不能同资本主义一起走向胜利。自由主义民主是一种权利体系，兼具公共权威性和维持占有性关系的双重职能。自由主义民主和社会主义的融合只能依赖没有任何社会内容的空洞的形式主义。自由主义民主导致资本主义国家的自我封闭，制造了不可消除的内在矛盾，最终只能以革命的形式来超越自身的评价系统。国家的消亡只能在无阶级社会中实现，国家权力与公共权力之间具有明显的张力。伍德指出麦克弗森不主张暴力革命，而主张走改良主义道路，希望利用和平手段过渡到社会主义社会，因而麦克弗森不是马克思主义者，更多的是自由主义民主者。