美国金融危机压力的来源及其对中国防范金融风险的启示——基于MIMIC模型的实证分析

党的十九大报告指出：“要坚决打好防范化解重大风险攻坚战，其关键又是防范金融风险，包括防范中国系统性金融风险的发生和抵御国际性金融危机传导所带来的外部冲击。”2007年由美国次贷危机演变成的全球性金融危机，至今还在持续影响着部分国家的经济和金融发展。2015年底开始的美国第六轮加息周期和2018年3月中美贸易战的爆发，使得中国的经济发展面临更大的机遇和挑战。本文以次贷危机为背景，基于MIMIC模型对2005—2016年的美国金融危机压力进行了测度，找到压力的来源为外汇储备增长率、出口增长率和实际有效汇率高估三个方面，进而分析其产生的根本原因，最后从三方面提出中国防范化解重大风险的对策和启示。     

Applying the counseling-learning approach to a tourism-related massive open online course

ABSTRACT

This study discusses how to apply counseling-learning (CL) principles to a particular e-learning solution for teaching a tourism-related subject via a massive open online course (MOOC). Several effective caring patterns in achieving learning-related goals and being part of a community according to the CL principles are presented and discussed using the MOOC “eTourism: Communication Perspectives” as a case study. The study underlines how the MOOC platform can act as a place for contents enjoinment and active learning. Moreover, the active role of social media for increasing the engagement of learners in the proposed activities and for developing a sense of the community is identified. In particular, Facebook and Twitter can act as places for community building and informal social interactions among learners that last beyond the completion of the course, which in turn can be a valid aid for continuing the relationships among instructors/learners and learners/learners, and for reaching new ones.     

Then and Now: Examining Older People's Engagement in Outdoor Recreation Across the Life Course

Outdoor recreation provides a range of health and wellbeing benefits and facilitates engagement with natural environments. We explore older people's participation in outdoor recreation throughout their lives to examine how past experiences shape engagement later in life. A qualitative life history approach, consisting of semi-structured interviews and a focus group in three place-specific (urban, rural, and small town coastal) case studies in Scotland, was adopted. Thematic analysis revealed ways in which childhood experiences shaped adult engagement and highlighted life course transitions where behaviour change was most pronounced. Place and gender were considered as factors which may affect responses. Participants identified the points of getting married, becoming a parent, children entering adolescence, retirement, the onset of disabilities or ill health, and the death of others as “moments of change” in the extent and/or form of their outdoor recreation. The findings highlight potential for targeted interventions to promote outdoor recreation throughout life.     

Why Distinguish Between Statistics and Mathematical Statistics–The Case of Swedish Academia

A separation between the academic subjects statistics and mathematical statistics has existed in Sweden almost as long as there have been statistics professors. The same distinction has not been maintained in other countries. Why has it been kept for so long in Sweden, and what consequences may it have had? In May 2015, it was 100 years since Mathematical Statistics was formally established as an academic discipline at a Swedish university where Statistics had existed since the turn of the century. We give an account of the debate in Lund and elsewhere about this division during the first decades after 1900 and present two of its leading personalities. The Lund University astronomer (and mathematical statistician) C. V. L. Charlier was a leading proponent for a position in mathematical statistics at the university. Charlier's adversary in the debate was Pontus Fahlbeck, professor in political science and statistics, who reserved the word statistics for ‘statistics as a social science’. Charlier not only secured the first academic position in Sweden in mathematical statistics for his former PhD student Sven Wicksell but also demonstrated that a mathematical statistician can be influential in matters of state, finance as well as in different natural sciences. Fahlbeck saw mathematical statistics as a set of tools that sometimes could be useful in his brand of statistics. After a summary of the organisational, educational and scientific growth of the statistical sciences in Sweden that has taken place during the last 50 years, we discuss what effects the Charlier–Fahlbeck divergence might have had on this development.     

“With a young spirit,we will be young forever”: Exploring the links between tourism and ageing well in contemporary China

This research explores the entangled relationships between tourism, ageing and well-being in later life. We challenge the universal connotations of old age and “ageing well” and see their relationships with tourism as dynamic processes, in which older people are continuously producing different meanings and fulfilling personal quests over life courses. Using the contextualist and temporal lens, four scenarios of the evolving relationships between tourism and ageing well were identified from the lived experiences and travel histories of 48 Chinese senior travelers. The results demonstrate that how tourism affects ageing well are shaped by senior travellers' early life and travel experiences, the personalised conceptions attached to tourism and well-being, which are indeed complex responses to their personal, social and cultural contexts. This research unveils vivid pictures of Chinese older adults’ leisure lives, and highlights the urgency to develop relevant tourism policies and marketing strategies to cater for their changing needs.     

电气工程及其电气自动化的控制系统应用

近年来,随着我国经济的迅速发展,电气工程技术标准不断提升,对于技术的优化提出了更高的要求。电气工程技术在各行各业都得到了有效的应用,该技术的重要性不言而喻。尤其是制造业,其对于电气工程技术的依赖程度较高。所以在电气工程以及电气自动化控制系统的优化中,如何提高运行效率以及让设备稳定运行是当前工程师们所必须考虑的问题。     

基于BIM技术的工程造价精细化管理研究

为实现工程造价精细化管理目标,需要各个环节的相互配合来达到资源优化配置。BIM技术依托虚拟建模技术,实现了对工程项目的数字化建造管理。实践证明,将BIM技术融入项目工程造价管理体系中,有助于提升工程造价管理的整体质量。论文立足工程造价精细化管理的内涵,剖析了BIM技术在工程造价精细化管理中的应用价值,并提出了BIM技术在工程造价精细化管理中的具体应用策略。     

重大事项社会稳定风险评估运行框架研究——以城市新区开发建设为例

针对现行的重大事项社会稳定风险评估中存在的问题,提出建立切实可行的评估运行框架。首次以城市新区为评估对象,以发现问题、分析问题、解决问题为主线,采用定性、定量、定位、定策相结合的分析方法,对城市新区开发建设可能存在的社会稳定风险进行评估,以期实现单纯型评估、粗放型评估向精细化评估的转变。从实践层面来说,对其他新区规划的社会稳定风险评估具有借鉴意义。     

Healthcare costs of stroke and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants

Objective: To assess long-term healthcare costs related to ischemic stroke and systemic embolism (stroke/SE) and major bleeding (MB) events in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs).

Materials and methods: Optum’s Clinformatics Data Mart database from 1/2009–12/2016 was analyzed. Adult patients with ≥1 stroke/SE hospitalization (index date) were matched 1:1 to patients without stroke/SE (random index date), based on propensity scores. Patients with an MB event were matched to patients without MB. All patients had an NOAC dispensing overlapping index date, ≥12?months of eligibility pre-index date, and ≥1 NVAF diagnosis. The observation period spanned from the index date until the earliest date of death, switch to warfarin, end of insurance coverage, or end of data availability. Mean costs were evaluated: (1) per-patient-per-year (PPPY) and (2) at 1, 2, 3, and 4?years using Lin's method.

Results: The cost differences were, respectively, $48,807 and $28,298 PPPY for NOAC users with stroke/SE (n?=?1,340) and those with MB (n?=?3,774) events compared to controls. Cost differences of patients with vs without stroke/SE were $49,876, $51,627, $57,822, and $60,691 at 1, 2, 3, and 4?years post-index, respectively (p?p?Limitations: Limitations include unobserved confounders, coding and/or billing inaccuracies, limited sample sizes over longer follow-up, and the under-reporting of mortality for deaths occurring after 2011.

Conclusions: The incremental healthcare costs incurred by patients with vs without stroke/SE was nearly twice as high as those of patients with vs without MB. Moreover, each additional year up to 4?years after the first event was associated with an incremental cost for patients with a stroke/SE or MB event compared to those without an event.     

基于主体功能定位的湖北省县域乡村性空间分异研究

[目的]确立与主体功能区定位相协调的乡村发展类型与乡村政策,是促进城乡融合、乡村振兴的重要措施。[方法]以湖北省县域为空间单元,构建乡村性评价指标体系,并基于三次产业的产值结构,划分县域的乡村发展类型。[结果](1)2016年湖北省县域乡村性指数相对较高,乡村性呈现出东低西高的空间分布格局。乡村发展类型可划分为农业主导型、工业主导型、商旅服务型和均衡发展型,分别占县域总数的25.29%、16.1%、10.71%和48.28%。(2)重点开发区的乡村类型以工业主导型和商旅服务型为主,乡村类型主要是城镇化和工业化带动,市场、资本推动力和农民的自主选择突出;农产品主产区和重点生态功能区的乡村类型均以农业主导型和均衡发展型为主,不同的是农产品主产区的农业自然和生产条件优越、农耕文化根植,农业政策扶植,乡村类型是由农业现代化和产业化推动;重点生态功能区乡村类型受资源环境约束、经济基础及行政干预的推动。[结论]三大主体功能区下的乡村类型及驱动机制存在差异,并提出不同乡村振兴发展的政策建议。