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1.
针对目前燃料乙醇行业发展的困境,结合现行法规政策体系、补贴政策和定价机制,分析存在的问题,借鉴美国法规体系、目标标准、补贴措施和RFS实施与管理,提出政策建议、燃料乙醇新定价机制与燃料乙醇推广环节的补偿机制。  相似文献   
2.
Based on a CGE exercise of a subsidy to initiate ethanol production in Mexico, we use Monte Carlo simulations for consumer demand elasticities and ethanol cost estimates. The analysis provides three conclusions: when markets vary smoothly and predictably, Monte Carlo methods can then help to gauge the actual probability that a given program will achieve a desired outcome. Second, secondary markets may display little or no sensitivity to these parameter variations. Finally, a ‘razor’s edge’ outcome with no positive benefits if a critical parameter falls below some critical value, reveals that an economic policy may not be conducive to ‘fine tuning’ by marginal adjustments.  相似文献   
3.
We assess the impact of a potential TTIP bilateral free trade agreement on the EU and US bio‐economies (feedstock, biofuels, by‐products, and related competing crops) and major trade partners in these markets. The analysis develops a multi‐market model that incorporates bilateral trade flows (US to EU, EU to US, and similarly with third countries) and is calibrated to the OECD‐FAO baseline for 2013–2022 to account for recent policy decisions. The major policy reforms from a TTIP involve tariff and TRQ liberalisation and their direct contractionary impact on US sugar supply, EU biofuel production, and indirect negative effect on US high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) production. EU sugar and isoglucose production expand along with US ethanol and biodiesel and oilseed crushing. EU sugar would flow to the US, US biofuels and vegetable oil to the EU. We further quantify non‐tariff measures (NTM) affecting these trade flows between the EU and the US. EU oilseed production contracts, and EU crushing expands with improving crushing margins following reduced NTM frictions. Our analysis reveals limited net welfare gains with most net benefits reaped by Brazil and not the two trading partners of the TTIP.  相似文献   
4.
The Brazilian cities as well as many of the large urban centers in the world continue to expand, increasing the demand for mobility and transport, while, at the same time, the same cities are investing in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation to avoid climate change. Brazil's urbanization rate increased from 26% in 1940 to almost 70% in 1980. During this period, the Brazilian population tripled and the urban population multiplied by seven. In 2010, the transport sector in São Paulo accounted for 71% of the total emissions released by the energy sector. Ethanol has been considered a fuel with less greenhouse gas emissions, when compared with fossil fuels. However, ethanol production would have to double to meet the expected demand. Electric vehicles (EVs) market is expanding around the world, and is also an option to reduce the transport emissions, if powered by clean electricity. To assess whether the adoption of EVs might bring more benefits than the current ethanol, we develop prospective scenarios supported by the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) simulation tool, taking a bottom-up tank-to-wheel approach to consider the CO2 emissions of car in São Paulo. The scenario considering a substitution of 25% of gasoline-powered cars by EV in 2030 showed a reduction in energy consumption and CO2 emissions, around 15% and 26% respectively in that year in comparison with 2015. We discuss the interplay between ethanol and EV, also considering emission coefficients from life cycle analysis conducted in Brazil, and concluded EV will have higher positive impact on climate change mitigation than ethanol.  相似文献   
5.
Biofuels and Sustainable Energy Development in Brazil   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
  相似文献   
6.
The introduction of the flex-fuel cars in the Brazilian market in 2003 changed considerably the consumer decision-making process. Prior to this date, it was necessary to choose the automobile type only by gasoline or by ethanol fuel; today it is possible to choose a car type with both fuel options. This flexibility generates economic advantages for his owner, but what are the financial benefits of a flex-fuel car in comparison with a car using only gasoline? Geographically, where is the owner of the benefits from this flexibility located? This article presents an empirical application of the Real Options Theory in the analysis of the flex-fuel car option for five geographic Brazilian regions: Northern, Northeastern, Central-Western, Southeastern and Southern. The regional price differences as well as the consumer preferences of these regions were met. For this purpose, historical fuel prices were considered stochastic and following a Mean Reverting Stochastic process. The prediction and option values were generated by a Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that the option embedded on the Brazilian flex-fuel car adds considerable value to the owner in all regions and car models considered, with the Southeastern Region receiving most benefits by the flex option.  相似文献   
7.
This article suggests a pricing model for commodities used to produce biofuel. The model is based on the concept that the deterministic component of the Wiener process is not constant and depends on time and exogenous variables. The model, which incorporates theory of storage, the convenience yield and the seasonality of harvests, was applied in the Brazilian sugar market. After predictions were made with the Kalman filter, the model produced results that were statistically more accurate than those returned by the two‐factor model available in the literature.  相似文献   
8.
Valuing climate protection through willingness to pay for biomass ethanol   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
This study uses a multi-part, split-sample contingent valuation method (CVM) and fair share (FS) survey to better understand the public's valuation of mitigating global climate change through its willingness to pay for biomass or “cellulosic” ethanol. In addition to a basic CVM question, a related scenario was developed that asked half of the survey respondents to state their fair share cost to lessen a potential food shortage in the next decade, also through the expanded use of cellulosic ethanol. Three alternative biomass feedstocks were assessed: farming residues, forestry residues and paper mill wastes, and municipal solid wastes. Overall a slightly larger proportion of respondents were WTP extra for cellulosic ethanol in the basic CVM scenario than in the FS scenario, though no significant differences were found in the WTP for the different feedstocks. Bid curve lognormal regression results for the two models were similar, supporting the idea that asking a FS rather than a conventional WTP question may be justifiable in some circumstances, such as in cases of a national emergency.  相似文献   
9.
近年来,石油短缺、油价昂贵导致世界生物能源产业,如燃料乙醇产业迅猛扩张。而乙醇产量的迅猛增长,消耗了大量粮食类农产品(特别是玉米),从而造成全球性的"粮食能源化"问题。为应对能源危机和粮食危机的同时出现,我国应调整燃料乙醇的原料结构,采用非口粮类能源作物、庄稼废料、城市垃圾等,实现能源与粮食的双丰收,推动经济社会的可持续发展。  相似文献   
10.
介绍了燃料乙醇仿真系统软、硬件的结构,着重阐明了它的设计思想和技术特色;标准、适用、灵活是该系统的最重要的特点;实现了全流程的仿真;该系统既可用于培训,还可用于运行指导.  相似文献   
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