Inflation,interest and exchange rates in the transition1

Central and Eastern European economies have made extraordinary progress in their trade and exchange regimes. Surprisingly, instant convertibility was established for a great variety of exchange rate regimes. In spite of diversity, all these countries have followed a common pattern: severe initial undervaluation - the cost of speed and unrestricted trade - followed by rapid real revaluation and incipient protectionism. Since 1994 in many cases an embarrass de richesse has appeared: high capital inflows which are either inflationary or costly to sterilize. A major cause of these flows - or at any rate of the high cost of sterilization - is the presence of significant interest rate differentials higher than required to cover the risk of devaluation. These are the necessary consequence of a policy of positive real interest rates and of real revaluation from excessively undervalued exchange rates. Lower interest rates are recommended, both to stem financial capital inflows and to reduce the cost of their sterilization.     

Efficient Markets Hypothesis and the Emerging Capital Market in Sri Lanka: Evidence from the Colombo Stock Exchange – A Note

The behaviour of stock prices on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) is examined with a view to determine its consistency with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH). Runs, Autocorrelation and Cointegration tests are applied to daily, weekly and monthly CSE index data for the period of January 1991–November 1996. Results of Runs, Correlation and Cointegration tests overwhelmingly reject the serial independence hypothesis, leading to the conclusion that the behaviour of stock prices in the Colombo Stock Exchange is not consistent with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Tests of the-day-of-the-week-effect, however, show that there is no evidence of such a phenomenon on the Colombo Stock Exchange stock prices. Results of the tests of the-month-of-the-year-effect lead to the conclusion that CSE prices do not display any month-specific behaviour.     

中国外贸增长中的人民币汇率因素分析及建议

人民币汇率因素是推动我国外贸持续增长所要面对的首要问题,在其背后牵涉的是弱势美元、通货膨胀以及企业竞争等错综复杂的关系。只有正确认识和处理所牵涉的这些变量,我们才能从根本上保证我国外贸增长的可持续性。     

2011年上半年国际金融市场运行综述

2011年上半年,美元总体走弱;美元短期利率下降,欧元、英镑短期利率上升,日元短期利率基本走平;主要国家中长期国债收益率先升后降;欧美主要股指振荡走高。     

Do central banks lose on foreign-exchange intervention? A review article

Estimates of central bank intervention losses or profits vary widely; some estimates find substantial losses, others profits. In most cases, estimated profits are not risk-adjusted, and risk adjustment can have large effects. Furthermore, profit estimates involve variables integrated of order one, and because of this test-statistics may have nonstandard distributions; few studies take this into account. Estimates of risk-adjusted profits for the US Fed and the Swedish Riksbank, with allowances for possible nonstandard distributions, suggest that neither made losses and might have made significant profits.     

国际税收情报交换与纳税人权利保护研究

在经济全球化的背景之下,作为国际税务合作的重要形式,国际税收情报交换制度越来越受到各国以及各国际组织的关注。在国际税收情报交换实施过程中的一大突出问题是对相关纳税人权利的漠视。在各相关国际法律文件中对税收情报交换中的纳税人权利保护作了一些规定。这些权利可以分为三个层次。实践中加强税收情报交换中纳税人权利的保护势在必行。     

An empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis: Evidence from eight middle-income countries in Africa

The paper tests the validity of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis (BSH) using the within-effects and the dynamic panel generalised methods of moment (GMM) techniques for a panel of eight middle-income African countries over the period 1960–2009. We selected these countries because they exhibited a mixture of relative productivity growth and real exchange rate misalignment that fits the characterization of the BSH well. The results strongly support the BSH for this group of countries. The results are valid even after we controlled for potentially omitted variables and endogeneity. The implication is that as these countries become more productive, their currencies appreciate in real terms.     

Speculative attacks to currency target zones: A market microstructure approach

This paper develops a simple optimization model to characterize the behaviour of market participants during currency attacks and tests it empirically. Specifically, we test for the determinants of the timing, magnitude and chance of success of an attack. The empirical part is carried out using Mexican data, as this market provides us with an appropriate target zone framework and with a very rich dataset. We find empirical support for a set of microeconomic determinants which include: daily order flow, inventory management, intra-day price volatility, and the forward intervention-price differential. Finally, we test for the role of central bank reserves in speculative attack dynamics.