人民币跨境流动自由度的测算——基于资本项目名义开放指数的借鉴

长期以来,人们只看重货币国际化结果,以占全球贸易计价结算比重、外汇交易比重、国际债券比重、外汇储备比重等相关指标衡量一国货币的国际化程度,而忽视货币跨境流动放松过程,即一国货币的跨境流动自由化程度。货币国际化是一个过程又是一种结果,包含进程和结果两个层面,在货币国际化进程中,过早过快放松本币流出入会引发经济金融风险,某些情形下进程比结果更值得关注。构建人民币跨境自由度指数涉及强度赋值、项目设置和权重确定三方面内容。在梳理2019年第2季度前我国货币政策基础上,对2008年至2019年经常项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度、证券投资项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度以及资本项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度进行评估,并以美国近5年各项目下的资金流动平均占比为权重,构建了人民币跨境流动自由化指数,考察2008—2019年人民币跨境流动自由化程度,结果显示人民币国际化进展较快,跨境流动已得到很大程度放松,而且人民币流入自由程度显著高于流出自由度。我国人民币国际化进程应持续遵循先经常项目后资本项目、先流入后流出、先机构后个人、先大额后小额、先风险小项目后风险大项目的次序,提高人民币跨境流动的稳定性,降低无序流动的投机风险;严格管控证券投资、其他投资、衍生品项目下人民币跨境流动,并依据我国利率市场化程度、金融市场发达程度及审慎监管能力进行调整;大力提升经常项目的人民币结算比重,发展人民币离岸市场,提高非居民间的人民币使用频率和使用规模;充分评估各项目下人民币跨境流动和本外币兑换自由度,提高两者的协同匹配程度,降低因两者不匹配而产生的负面影响。     

Do Energy Prices Affect U.S. Investor Sentiment?

The current literature has examined the effect of investor sentiment on energy prices, but no study ever has explored the validity of the reverse question. Therefore, this article explore whether energy prices (i.e., crude oil and natural gas prices) affect U.S. investor sentiment, using the methodology of quantile regression. The empirical results document that controlling for a number of U.S. macroeconomic and financial factors, there exists a statistically significant association between oil and natural gas prices and investor sentiment. However, only natural gas prices appear to retain their statistical significance over the majority of quantiles. These findings received robust support under alternative measures of the investor sentiment index.     

Re-testing Prebisch–Singer hypothesis: new evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test

The Prebisch–Singer hypothesis in economics asserts that over time the relative price of primary goods relative to manufactured goods should experience a downward trend. To test the hypothesis, we must first establish the unit root properties of the relative price term and then regress the stationary series on a trend term. We use the quantile unit root test which allows for both smooth unknown numbers and the form of breaks in the trend function through a Fourier function to show that the relative price of 23 out of 24 primary goods is stationary. However, the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis is supported only in half of the primary commodities.     

Testing hysteresis effect in U.S. state unemployment: new evidence using a nonlinear quantile unit root test

We revisit hysteresis effect in the unemployment rate of each of the 52 states of the United States using nonlinear quantile unit root test over the period 1976M1–2016M7. Our results indicate that unemployment rate of the U.S. economy as a whole displays hysteresis effect over recessionary periods. Nineteen out of 52 states display hysteresis behaviour over the period 1976–2016. For the remaining 33 states, we find four types of behaviours. Some states display stationarity behaviour almost in all quantiles. Some display hysteresis over recessionary periods and in contrast some display hysteresis over expansion period.     

Panel LM unit root tests with level and trend shifts

This paper considers a Lagrange multiplier (LM) based panel unit root test that allows for heterogeneous structural breaks in both the intercepts and slopes of a series. We note that many popular time series variables are likely to exhibit changing means and/or trends over time. Given that the usual tests will depend on the nuisance parameters indicating the locations of the trend breaks, we adopt a transformation procedure that makes our new panel unit root tests invariant to the nuisance parameters. To illustrate the importance of the power gain provided by our test, we examine the convergence hypothesis using relative ratios of per capita health care expenditures in 20 OECD countries. Our results provide evidence that the convergence hypothesis is supported.     

单位劳动力成本、汇率变动与出口的互动关联研究——基于面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型的分析

基于我国34个工业行业的面板数据，采用面板向量自回归模型（PVAR）对单位劳动力成本、汇率风险与我国出口之间的互动关系进行研究。结果显示，单位劳动力成本与出口存在双向抑制作用，即工资上涨不利于出口规模的扩张，出口也无法促进工资增长率的上升，但出口显著地提升了劳动生产率；汇率变动对出口脉冲响应函数值正负交替，呈现出不确定性，出口对汇率变动产生了超调现象；我国存在"进口引致出口"机制，且出口也能通过收入效应和汇率两条路径影响进口；产出对出口的影响关系呈现不确定性，但出口可以带动产出。在方差分解中，单位劳动力成本变量对出口具有较强的解释能力，是导致我国出口变动的主要因素，汇率变动对出口的短期解释能力较强，进口在长期解释能力较强，产出在三个不同时期解释能力基本一致，但出口对其他变量的解释能力普遍较低。     

The impacts of export competition on international technology flows

Knowledge flow is a key to building technological capabilities. This article investigates how competition in international trade affects knowledge flow between countries using patent data and trade data for analysis. The main finding is that export competition in the third market (in our study, the US market) seems to have a positive impact on the flow of knowledge. The findings from this study contribute to the debate on ‘learning-by-exporting’.     

基于价值流图析的生产线连续流创建

针对M企业A生产线在制品积压、交付周期长等问题，通过现状价值流图分析其原因，提出在考虑改善效益大于投入成本的条件下，选择合适的自动化水平，以克服物料供应不及时、工艺特性等制约因素。从工艺流程、布局、工装等方面进行改善并绘制未来价值流图，创建生产线连续流。生产线连续流创建后，生产周期缩短了13天、搬运距离减少41m、车间面积节省约168m2、作业人数减少6人，为企业降本增效打下了坚实基础。     

部门分割视角下的收入差距代际传递变动趋势

利用1988—2013年CHIP数据，基于分位回归方法，考察了国有部门和非国有部门的收入差距代际传递变动趋势。结果显示：非国有部门的收入差距代际传递程度低于国有部门，但呈缓慢上升趋势；国有部门收入顶层的代际固化现象明显改善，两个部门收入底层的流动性却较低，容易陷入贫困代际传递陷阱。通过代际收入流动矩阵和Shorrocks指数的进一步分析发现，国有部门的流动质量更高，子辈更易实现收入向上的流动。