On the need to compensate the compensating variation in CGE modeling

The message of this research is that in the standard calibrated setting of Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) models, the welfare measures typically used to compare benchmark with counterfactuals are numéraire dependent. This evaluation bias affects the compensating variation and the Konüs index of cost of living. We show that the equivalent variation is neutral regarding the choice of value units in calibrated models but would be affected as well in uncalibrated CGE models. We illustrate with a simple example and propose an even simpler theoretical solution to overcome these biases; all that is required to have correct welfare estimates is to compensate normalizing with a suitable price index. This type of correction is necessary to overcome the sometimes blind implementation of welfare measures in numerical general equilibrium analysis. We show that the induced quantitative errors may be substantial providing biased welfare estimates and misleading results.     

Economic Impacts of the Possible China–US Trade War

This article uses a multi-country global general equilibrium (GE) model to numerically simulate the effects of possible China–US trade wars. We introduce an endogenous trade imbalance structure with trade cost into the model which helps to explore both tariff and non-tariff trade war effects. Our simulation results show that China will be significantly hurt by the China–US trade war, but negative impacts are affordable. The US can gain under unilateral sanction measures to China, but will lose if China takes retaliation measures. Comparing the effects under mutual trade war, China will lose more than the US. Introducing non-tariff barrier trade wars will intensify the negative effects, and comparatively negative effects to China are larger than to the US. Mexico’s involvement in trade war with the US will strengthen the negative effects and comparatively hurt the US more. Under non-cooperative and cooperative Nash bargaining equilibrium, the US can gain more than China in trade war negotiation, which means the US has stronger bargaining power than China. Additionally, trade wars between China and the US will hurt most countries and the world especially in GDP and manufacturing employment, but benefit their welfare and trade.     

Why Distinguish Between Statistics and Mathematical Statistics–The Case of Swedish Academia

A separation between the academic subjects statistics and mathematical statistics has existed in Sweden almost as long as there have been statistics professors. The same distinction has not been maintained in other countries. Why has it been kept for so long in Sweden, and what consequences may it have had? In May 2015, it was 100 years since Mathematical Statistics was formally established as an academic discipline at a Swedish university where Statistics had existed since the turn of the century. We give an account of the debate in Lund and elsewhere about this division during the first decades after 1900 and present two of its leading personalities. The Lund University astronomer (and mathematical statistician) C. V. L. Charlier was a leading proponent for a position in mathematical statistics at the university. Charlier's adversary in the debate was Pontus Fahlbeck, professor in political science and statistics, who reserved the word statistics for ‘statistics as a social science’. Charlier not only secured the first academic position in Sweden in mathematical statistics for his former PhD student Sven Wicksell but also demonstrated that a mathematical statistician can be influential in matters of state, finance as well as in different natural sciences. Fahlbeck saw mathematical statistics as a set of tools that sometimes could be useful in his brand of statistics. After a summary of the organisational, educational and scientific growth of the statistical sciences in Sweden that has taken place during the last 50 years, we discuss what effects the Charlier–Fahlbeck divergence might have had on this development.     

Public pollution abatement and wage inequality

This paper constructs three-sector general equilibrium models to investigate how public pollution abatement affects the skilled–unskilled wage inequality. In the basic model with full employment, we find that a higher degree of public pollution abatement will decrease the wage inequality if the intensity of skilled labor in the urban skilled sector is sufficiently large and expand or narrow down the wage gap if this intensity is sufficiently small. In the extended models, we consider other four cases, and obtain the results similar or dissimilar to that of the basic model.     

The income elasticity gap and its implications for economic growth and tourism development: the Balearic vs the Canary Islands

ABSTRACT

The Balearic and the Canary Islands are two well-known tourism-led economies. They both experienced a tourism boom during the same decades, and, hence, they developed a similar productive-mix. Nevertheless, there are strong economic differences between the two regions. While the Balearic Islands enjoy a high GDP per capita, the Canary Islands show a more modest performance. The results of a panel data regression confirm our hypothesis that they differ substantially in terms of income elasticity of tourism. It is two times higher in the Balearic Islands than in the Canaries, which indicates the first is perceived as a more luxurious destination. Furthermore, the results of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model show that the Canaries would converge in GDP per capita with the Balearic Islands if they attracted tourists with a similar profile as the latter.     

股权金融市场、增长方式选择与平衡增长：传统与新兴部门视角*

为探究股权金融市场对增长方式选择和平衡增长的影响，本文基于传统与新兴部门的差异，构建动态理论模型并利用“Simulink”技术进行数值模拟分析。理论分析发现股权金融市场效率对平衡增长具有增长效应且存在门槛条件，效率高于门槛值时股权金融市场发展将提高平衡增长率和创新贡献率。总体上，发展股权金融市场将促进我国平衡增长和增长方式转变，但东、西部地区存在差异，发展股权市场可以加快东部地区创新型增长而对西部地区没有显著作用。     

基于ADS-B报文的“北斗”便携式终端实现

针对单个广播式自动相关监视（Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast，ADS-B）发射机传输距离受限、多地面站组网复杂以及成本较高等问题，在分析ADS-B报文编码与解码算法的基础上，探讨了基于无线网络传输的ADS-B报文信息技术，并设计了基于“北斗”卫星导航（BeiDou Satellite Navigation System，BDS）/嵌入式控制器以及无线网络的便携式监视终端系统。利用实测ADS-B数据联合搭建的监视中心对算法和系统进行测试，结果表明数据传输稳定，实现了低空空域通用航空飞机ADS-B态势信息的网络传输功能，丰富了监视信息的链路传输方式，为低空通航飞行器安全飞行和全面监视提供了新的方法。     

通用飞机航空电子系统架构研究综述

当前我国通用飞机产业迎来了巨大的发展机遇，开展通用飞机航电系统架构的研究具有重要意义。通过分析通用飞机航空电子系统的典型需求，包括功能需求、安全性需求、适航需求、经济性与维护保障需求等，分高、中、低三类分别讨论了国外代表性的通用飞机航电系统架构的主要特点，揭示了通用飞机航电系统架构设计的一般规律，并结合应用需求提出了未来通用飞机航电系统的发展趋势，可以为相关研究提供有益的参考。     

The dynamic effects of infectious disease outbreaks: The case of pandemic influenza and human coronavirus

Pandemic influenza is a regularly recurring form of infectious disease; this work analyses its economic effects. Like many other infectious diseases influenza pandemics are usually of short, sharp duration. Human coronavirus is a less regularly recurring infectious disease. The human coronavirus pandemic of 2019 (COVID-19) has presented with seemingly high transmissibility and led to extraordinary socioeconomic disruption due to severe preventative measures by governments. To understand and compare these events, epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission of a pandemic from regional populations to regional economies and then across regional economies. In contrast to past pandemics, COVID-19 is likely to be of longer duration and more severe in its economic effects given the greater uncertainty surrounding its nature. The analysis indicates how economies are likely to be affected due to the risk-modifying behaviour in the form of preventative measures taken in response to the latest novel pandemic virus.     

“倒挂型”土地利用总体规划的耕地保护效果评价

研究目的:揭示"倒挂型"土地利用总体规划与耕地保护效果之间的关系,以期为国土空间规划的编制提供参考。研究方法:倾向值匹配法。研究结果:(1)耕地"倒挂型"规划对耕地面积净变化的影响具有统计显著性,2006—2008年,耕保指标"倒挂型"规划使耕地面积净变化量平均减少2.270万hm2;(2)2010—2016年,耕保指标"倒挂型"规划使耕地面积净变化量平均减少0.496万hm2;(3)建设用地"倒挂型"规划对耕地面积净变化量并无显著影响。研究结论:在省级政府耕地保护责任目标考核的制度环境下,耕地"倒挂型"规划对地方政府形成一定压力,促使各级政府采取措施加以应对,从而使得"倒挂型"规划在一定程度上降低了耕地净减少量。