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1.
党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标,因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标,对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此,本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验,对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化,模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率;二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率,验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性;三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度,提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。  相似文献   
2.
[目的]以重庆市为研究区域,以农地发展权资本化的地票指标为研究对象,从理论和实证层面探讨农地发展权交易与资本要素的城乡互动关系及其对区域经济增长的影响,为进一步优化农地发展权交易政策、促进区域均衡发展提供相关建议。[方法]基于2008—2017年城乡统筹改革试验区重庆市地票指标交易的面板数据,运用要素禀赋理论和差分GMM模型从理论和实证层面分析农地发展权流出区土地与资本要素的互动关系及其对区域经济增长的影响。[结果]基于区域间资源禀赋的差异及要素相对价格的分化,在市场机制作用下,农地发展权指标将以配置效率优化为导向在不同区域间自由流动。[结论]短期内,由于资本约束,流出农地发展权的区域其经济增长会受到抑制;而当农地发展权指标资本化后,流出区获得了较为稀缺的货币资本,农地发展权流出将显著促进地方经济增长;同时,在研究时期内,由于农地发展权市场交易机制的构建,重庆市地方经济增长存在显著的收敛效应,区域间经济发展差距将会逐步缩小。  相似文献   
3.
Following years of fast-rising debt levels, we show that the Covid-19 crisis worsened an already deteriorating fiscal position in South Africa. To restore fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the crisis some commentators argue that higher government expenditure will grow GDP sufficiently to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio. We reject this, showing that although a real increase in expenditure stimulates economic growth (a short-run, once-off effect), the public expenditure/GDP ratio exceeds the level at which an increase in the ratio positively impacts growth. We then explore the past efforts of government to maintain or restore fiscal sustainability by estimating a fiscal reaction function using a Markov-switching model. Following the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the budget, we subsequently establish the deficit, expenditure and revenue adjustments that the government will have to make to restore fiscal sustainability. Finally, we consider the merits of introducing a debt ceiling.  相似文献   
4.
We contribute to the finance-growth nexus literature by showing that credit origin, bank ownership, type of credit, and bank type matter in economic growth. We use a unique dataset covering 5555 cities in Brazil, with granular information on credit characteristics. We find that non-earmarked credit to the corporate sector is associated with municipal economic growth more strongly than earmarked credit, despite the increase in the relevance of the latter after the global financial crisis. We also find that the type of credit—whether the loans are general purpose or for a specific purpose—is associated with economic growth in different ways. Overall, credit provided to the corporate sector by domestic private banks is correlated with higher economic growth rates. In contrast, the relationship between credit from state-owned banks and economic growth becomes statistically significant only after the crisis. Although we follow the finance-growth literature in our empirical exercises using internal instruments in generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations, we also conduct robustness tests using two additional external instruments: the number of complaints filed against each bank and local credit accessibility. Our findings with external instruments are the same with respect to the use of traditional internal instruments in GMM estimations.  相似文献   
5.
内生增长理论认为技术进步是经济增长最为重要的助推力,推动技术进步的力量是对研发的投资和国际贸易的发展。随着经济贸易与信息技术的飞速发展,社会对国际贸易、技术进步的关注程度日渐提升。通过深入分析国际贸易与工业行业生产率之间的关系,可以有针对性地应用有效手段对国际贸易进行调整,使其可以继续带动技术的进步并促进工业行业生产率的提升。基于此,论文探究了我国国际贸易、技术进步与工业行业生产率增长的关系,阐述了国际贸易、技术进步对于工业行业生产率的真实影响。  相似文献   
6.
We analyse real income convergence among the EU28 countries throughout 1995–2017 and the relationship with the convergence patterns of financial systems. We apply the nonlinear latent factor model of Phillips and Sul (2007, 2009) to real incomes and the IMF financial development indices for financial markets and financial institutions (Svirydzenka, 2016), and identify convergence clubs endogenously. We have several results. First, income disparities narrowed significantly over the last twenty years; yet, the growth convergence process lost momentum triggered by the global financial crisis and countries legacies shaped up asymmetries that have crystallised. Second, countries' financial systems exhibit high fragmentation, especially for financial markets, with the new EU member states at a lower financial development, confirming the existence of a two-tier Europe. Overall, the convergence patterns for real incomes and financial development are strongly correlated. Finally, the financial structure matters and market-oriented economies feature higher long-run growth, indicating the need to implement pan-European policy actions that increase the opportunities of risk diversification, enhance capital raising and channel large-scale financing to firms.  相似文献   
7.
The recent resurgence of the vinyl record and the proliferation of so-called craft and artisanal products offer unique opportunities to observe ongoing shifts in the contemporary consumer’s values and attitudes. In this article, we explore such thought-provoking market developments and their implications by contrasting them with the conventional understanding of markets and consumers. This understanding can lead to marketing myopia as it works from the utility-oriented assumption that what ultimately matters for both the company and the customer is cost efficiency and convenience. Against this backdrop, in this article, we discuss how market developments representing the contemporary consumer’s mindset prove valuable in creating customer insight that highlights aspects often obscured by an exaggerated focus on cost efficiency and convenience. We provide an alternative approach to evaluating markets and consumers that encourages companies to build their customer-centric market strategies around questions of context, authenticity, story, and resonance. This will help them narrow the gap between their market offerings and the actual wants and needs of their customer, and consequently allow them to revitalize their market.  相似文献   
8.
数字经济目前已经成为国民经济发展的重要推动力,研究数字经济对区域经济增长所起到的推动作用具有非常重要的现实指导意义。搭建数字经济发展测评体系和区域经济发展水平测量体系,通过对长江经济带2010-2019年相关指标数据的搜集,测算了长江经济带数字经济发展水平与整体经济发展水平,并对二者之间的耦合关系进行了验证,研究发现,长江经济带的整体数字经济发展水平相对均衡,数字经济对于区域经济增长有显著的推动作用,同时针对长江经济带数字经济助力经济增长给出了管理层面的建议。  相似文献   
9.
本文廓清了财政政策与货币政策搭配动态调控宏观经济的机理,揭示了两者协调影响经济的“黑箱”机制及其在经济不同阶段的搭配方式;运用中国2004—2019年的经济季度数据,构建TVP SV VAR模型探究两类政策对宏观经济的调控效应。研究发现:财政政策与货币政策共同把控流动性“闸门”实现互动协调;财政政策搭配货币政策具有时变性,在整体上“同向发力”推动经济发展;两类政策对产出的影响并非始终如理论一致,在结构层面仍有优化靶向性操作的余地。  相似文献   
10.
Using an estimated Beveridge curve, we trace out the vacancy–unemployment ratio in the steady state. This steady-state measure for labour market tightness is embedded in a VAR framework to obtain a benchmark for wage growth reflecting a labour market equilibrium.  相似文献   
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