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1.
党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标,因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标,对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此,本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验,对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化,模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率;二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率,验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性;三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度,提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。 相似文献
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Multichannel retailing is a widely adopted strategy in the fashion industry. Companies in this industry find it a source of competitive advantage to invest in reverse logistics infrastructure. However, limited empirical studies investigate the enablers of the relationship quality between the retailers and their reverse logistics service providers. This study quantifies the impact of reverse logistics process coordination between retailers and logistics service providers on relationship quality. Moreover, it tests the mediating role of reverse logistics service quality and the moderating role of conflict frequency in this relationship. Data were collected through a survey using a purposive sample of 241 retail store managers from the fashion retail industry of Pakistan. For this purpose, a self-administered questionnaire was developed using a five-point Likert Scale to gauge the responses. Conditional process analysis was used to evaluate the moderated mediation model. The findings showed a significant positive impact of reverse logistics process coordination on the relationship quality with a logistics service provider, a significant positive mediation effect of reverse logistics service quality, and a significant moderation effect of conflict frequency on the indirect relationship. However, conflict frequency, contrary to the hypothesis in the study, strengthened the indirect relationship. Furthermore, the moderation effect of conflict frequency on the direct relationship was insignificant. This study will help managers better understand the best practices leading to effective management of reverse logistics processes, particularly product returns. 相似文献
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JOSHUA R. HENDRICKSON 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2018,50(1):203-241
The Bullionist Controversy in the United Kingdom is one of the first debates about the determination of the price level and the exchange rate under a paper money standard. Despite the importance of the debate in the development of monetary theory, there remains little empirical evidence that uses modern, multivariate time series techniques. The evidence that does exist provides support for the Anti‐Bullionist position. The purpose of this paper is to review the debate and develop a dynamic general equilibrium model that is capable of capturing key features of the nineteenth‐century British financial system. The model is estimated using Bayesian procedures to test the competing hypotheses. The paper provides support for the Bullionist position. 相似文献
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水源地突发水污染政府应急预留水量需求预测 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
近年来,随着工业化和产业化的快速发展,水源地突发水污染事件频发。为应对紧急情况下的水资源非常规需求,保障经济社会稳定发展,政府需要安排一部分应急预留水量。如何合理预测政府应急预留水量的规模是一个值得探讨的课题。提出了一种基于案例推理技术的政府应急预留水量需求预测方法,具体思路是:借助于案例库,利用主成分分析法从众多影响水源地突发水污染事件的因素中提取出两两不相关的因子,以此作为案例的特征属性,基于加权曼哈顿距离测算相似度,依此得到匹配案例,进而测算政府应急预留水量。以太湖流域常州地区水源地为例,进行政府预留水量需求量的预测与分析。该方法可以为政府应急预留水量的配置、储备等提供相关理论知识。 相似文献
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《Food Policy》2019
In the early 1980s, disease susceptibility in short-season lentil landraces began to limit productivity in areas where relay cropping took place in Bangladesh. Since then, several improved high-yielding lentil varieties, which are resistant to rust and blight and suitable in the relay cropping system, have been released jointly by national and international research centers. This study used three methods, namely a panel of experts, a survey of 1000 households where the respondents named the variety they used, and DNA fingerprinting of seed samples collected from all lentil plots cultivated by survey households to estimate adoption. Double hurdle and instrumental variables regression methods were applied to the household survey and DNA fingerprinting data to identify determinants of adoption and measure their impacts. Of particular interest was whether estimates of adoption, determinants of adoption and impacts varied by method of variety identification. Results showed that the expert panel overestimated the adoption of more recent varieties while about 89% of the farmer-reported varieties were accurate, as verified by DNA fingerprinting. DNA fingerprinting appears to have little advantage for estimating the level of adoption in this case, where few varieties of lentils are found, local variety names do not exist, and most seed is obtained through a formal system. However, even under these conditions, determinants of adoption vary by identification method, and use of farmer-reported information on the variety can lead to erroneous conclusions about determinants of adoption. Because recent breeding efforts have focused on taste and cooking considerations, yield impacts were not significantly different from zero. 相似文献
8.
This is a review article that unifies several important examples using constrained optimisation techniques. The basic tools are three simple mathematical optimisation results subject to certain constraints. Applications include calibration, benchmarking in small area estimation and imputation. A final illustration is constrained optimisation under a general divergence loss. 相似文献
9.
周文 《首都经济贸易大学学报》2019,(5):3-12
基于中国11个集中连片贫困地区所涉及的87个地级市的动态面板数据,利用系统广义矩估计法克服内生性问题,可对不同交通运输方式在贫困地区的经济发展效应进行实证研究。研究发现,交通运输发展对贫困地区经济发展总体上起到了正向的促进作用,但不同交通运输方式在不同地区存在明显的差异。公路运输的发展在西南贫困地区和中部贫困地区的促进效果比在西北地区好。航空运输对中部贫困地区和西北贫困地区的经济发展同样起着显著的促进作用。普通铁路则因为在贫困地区的发展优势不明显,对经济发展的促进作用没有很好地发挥出来。 相似文献
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