Supply‐ versus Demand‐Side Policies in the Presence of Carbon Leakage and the Green Paradox

We consider a climate coalition that seeks to reduce global emissions in the presence of carbon leakage and resource exhaustibility. We show that a credible announcement of future unilateral supply‐side policies delays foreign emissions, and we derive the optimal combination of consumer taxes and producer taxes when we consider leakages from free riders, both within periods and across periods. The tax shares generally differ over time. A decline in the present value of the social cost of carbon over time supports a time path where the consumers’ tax share of the total carbon tax also declines over time. We illustrate our findings with a numerical model.     

Private information in currency markets

Using daily abnormal currency returns for the universe of countries with flexible exchange rates, we show local currency depreciations ahead of unscheduled, public sovereign debt downgrade announcements. Consistent with the private information hypothesis, the effect is stronger in lower institutional quality countries and holds after we control for concurrent public information and for publicly available rumors about the forthcoming downgrades. Our results persist when abnormal currency returns are adjusted for global carry and dollar risk factors, world equity and bond returns, as well as local stock market returns. Finally, the currency depreciations are permanent, providing evidence for a link between fundamentals and currency markets.     

Energy efficiency promotion backfires under cap-and-trade

Major climate-cum-energy policies and respective impact projections rest on the widespread belief that increased energy efficiency can be equated with savings in energy use and emissions. This belief is flawed. Due to the rebound effect emissions savings from energy efficiency improvements will be generally less than what is technically feasible, or even be reversed. By means of an analytical general equilibrium model we demonstrate the latter to be true in a case that is both stark and relevant: if electricity generation is subject to a cap-and-trade scheme with partial coverage, increased efficiency of electric devices leads unambiguously to increased carbon emissions. The result implies that a proper distinction between the energy rebound and the carbon rebound is warranted, and that public policy must carefully consider the interactions between energy efficiency promotion and carbon pricing.     

Information leakage of ADRs Prior to company issued guidance

We examine whether the degree of selective disclosure (as measured by information leakage prior to managerial earnings guidance) of foreign firms with ADRs is different from that of U.S. firms. We find that there is no variation of leakage before earning guidance between ADRs and U.S. firms. This result is consistent with the prediction that, despite being exempt from Regulation FD, ADRs have sufficient incentives to avoid selective disclosure even without the regulatory enforcement. In addition, we attempt to determine whether the variation in selective disclosure among the foreign firms with ADRs is conditioned on the respective home country transparency and governance standards. We find that country-specific characteristics, such as corruption perception, economic freedom and the legal system origin, explain the variation in information leakage of ADRs.     

Correlated daily time series and forecasting in the M4 competition

We participated in the M4 competition for time series forecasting and here describe our methods for forecasting daily time series. We used an ensemble of five statistical forecasting methods and a method that we refer to as the correlator. Our retrospective analysis using the ground truth values published by the M4 organisers after the competition demonstrates that the correlator was responsible for most of our gains over the naïve constant forecasting method. We identify data leakage as one reason for its success, due partly to test data selected from different time intervals, and partly to quality issues with the original time series. We suggest that future forecasting competitions should provide actual dates for the time series so that some of these leakages could be avoided by participants.     

THE IMPACT OF THE EU EMISSIONS TRADING SYSTEM ON COMPETITIVENESS AND CARBON LEAKAGE: THE ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE

This paper carefully surveys the econometric literature that tests for competitiveness effects and related carbon leakage caused by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The results of this literature tell us that to date there is no evidence of the EU ETS having had widespread negative or positive effects on the competitiveness of regulated firms, nor is there evidence of significant carbon leakage. However, the paper also identifies three important caveats to this general conclusion. Firstly, the evidence we have still largely refers to the first two trading periods, namely Phases I (2005–2007) and II (2008–2012). Secondly, some heterogeneity of estimated effects is observed, but patterns, notably sectoral patterns, hardly emerge. Thirdly, very little explored is whether the EU ETS has had long-term effects on the economy via investment leakage or firm dynamics. Further empirical studies investigating these long-term effects are particularly desirable.     

Valuation of nature-based tourism resources using dichotomous choice contingent valuation method

The purpose of this paper is to measure the potential revenue from nature-based tourism resources in the environmentally sensitive area of Mt Minju, South Korea. A dichotomous choice contingent valuation method was employed to estimate the mean willingness-to-pay, contingent on a hypothetical market scenario. The empirical results show that the economic value of nature-based tourism resources was estimated at 5905 Won (ca US$ 7) per visitor. This implies that the significant economic value of natural resources will be lost from any large-scale development by degrading natural environments. In addition to the value of natural resources, nature-based tourism also provides the locally owned small tourist businesses with lower leakages than the externally owned large-scale ones. Low leakage implies that local residents gain more direct income from nature-based tourism.     

Think Twice Before Going for Incentives: Social Norms and the Principal's Decision on Compensation Contracts

Principals make decisions on various issues, ranging from contract design to control system implementation. Few studies examine the principal's active role in these decisions. We experimentally investigate this role by studying how a principal's choice of an incentive contract that may discourage misrepresentation, compared to a fixed‐salary contract, affects the honesty of his or her agents’ cost reporting. Results show that, besides an incentive effect and a principal trust effect, the active choice for incentives produces a negative “information leakage” effect. When principals use incentives, their choices not only incentivize truthful reporting and signal distrust, but they also leak important information about the social norm, namely, that other agents are likely to report dishonestly. Agents conform to this social norm by misrepresenting cost information more. Our results have important practical implications. Managers must recognize that their decisions can leak information to their agents, which may produce unanticipated consequences for the social norms of the organization.     

Knowledge sharing,knowledge leaking and relative innovation performance: An empirical study

External knowledge sharing and knowledge leakage often pose a strategic dilemma when firms conduct innovation activities. In this study, we focus on the positive and negative effects of this phenomenon. In particular, we empirically examine the effects of a firm׳s external knowledge sharing on its relative innovation performance under the contingencies of accidental and intentional leakage of business-critical knowledge. Results based on a survey of 150 Finnish technology-intensive firms show that external knowledge sharing has a positive effect on innovation performance, but high levels of accidental and intentional knowledge leakage by a firm׳s employees negatively moderate this relationship. These results contribute to the understanding of the potentially positive and negative issues related to external knowledge sharing and knowledge leakage, which have thus far remained empirically under-researched.     

Multi-party computation mechanism for anonymous equity block trading: A secure implementation of turquoise plato uncross

Dark pools are financial trading venues where orders are entered and matched in secret so that no order information is leaked. By preventing information leakage, dark pools offer the opportunity for large volume block traders to avoid the costly effects of market impact. However, dark pool operators have been known to abuse their privileged access to order information. To address this issue, we introduce a provably secure multi-party computation mechanism that prevents an operator from accessing and misusing order information. Specifically, we implement a secure emulation of Turquoise Plato Uncross, Europe's largest dark pool trading mechanism, and demonstrate that it can handle real world trading throughput, with guaranteed information integrity.