Regime changes and fiscal sustainability in Kenya

Kenya's fiscal policy landscape is characterized by primary deficit spending forcing the government to rely on debt to meet its objectives. The justification often being that as a developing economy, annual growth rates and future prospects may in the short run justify the uptake of debt to finance infrastructural development. However, given potential fiscal limits, fiscal cycles usually alternates between sustainable and unsustainable regimes and this has a bearing on long run sustainability. This study therefore sought to investigate the nature of fiscal policy regime in Kenya and the extent to which fiscal policy is sustainable in the long run taking into account periodic regime shifts. Markov switching models were used to endogenously determine fiscal policy regimes. Regime switching tests were used to test whether No-Ponzi game condition and debt stabilizing condition were met. The results established that regime switching model was suitable in explaining regime sustainable and unsustainable cycles. An investigation of fiscal policy regimes established that both sustainable and unsustainable regimes were dominant, and each lasted for an average of four years. There was evidence to imply the existence of procyclical fiscal policy in Kenya. Regime switching tests for long run sustainability suggested that the No-Ponzi game condition weakly holds in the Kenyan economy. Regime-based sensitivity analysis indicated that persistence of unsustainability regime for more than 4 years could threaten long-run fiscal sustainability.     

The challenge of Chinese state‐affiliated multinationals in benefiting from foreign subsidiary knowledge transfer: A criticism of light‐touch integration

Acknowledging the sharp growth of Chinese state‐affiliated multinationals and their strategic asset‐seeking investments abroad, this study investigates the effects of headquarters' home‐country political ties on the multinational‐wide benefits gained from subsidiary knowledge transfer in Chinese multinationals. It also looks at how these effects are mediated by organizational distance and social integration between headquarters and subsidiary. Based on a survey of 177 subsidiaries of 99 Chinese multinationals, we find that headquarters' political ties trigger organizational distance and hinder social integration between headquarters and foreign subsidiaries and these, in turn, hamper the potential benefits that Chinese multinationals derive from subsidiary knowledge transfer. This study identifies new challenges related to political ties and light‐touch integration in gaining benefits from subsidiary knowledge transfer.     

偏光显微镜法在空气粉尘中石棉纤维鉴别中的应用

本文采用偏光显微镜法鉴别空气粉尘中的微量石棉纤维。经滤膜收集的粉尘样品通过高温灰化及酸洗过程去除大部分干扰物质,经乙醇分散后均匀沉积在玻璃片上,滴加具有固定折射率的浸油制成试片。在正交偏光系统下观察到粉体中存在纤维状颗粒,且纤维呈现四次平行消光特性,比对6种常见石棉的偏光显微镜图,综合分析试样粉尘的光学性质,推断样品中含有温石棉。     

Preventing motor vehicle crash injuries and deaths: science vs. folklore lessons from history

Abstract

Not long after the beginnings of motorization in the early 1900s, deaths and injuries from motor vehicle crashes became a problem in a number of high-income-countries (HIC)s, especially the United States. With the biggest problem the US led early efforts to address this issue, and for six decades these efforts were based on folklore (ie a body of widely held but false or unsubstantiated beliefs). They were not evaluated, but clearly were unsuccessful as crash deaths and injuries continued to rise. It was not until the 1970s that a broader range of countermeasures began to be adopted and was scientifically evaluated, and as a result, crash deaths and injuries declined. This history has important lessons today for many low-and-middle-income countries that have growing numbers of motor vehicle crash deaths and injuries, many of which are pedestrians and motorcyclists. This is because there continue to be advocates for many of the failed approaches (especially educational) that dominated the early efforts in HICs.     

Monetary policy shocks and exchange rates in Asian countries

In this paper, we empirically investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates in Asian countries. To do so, we use VAR models which impose sign restrictions on impulse responses to identify monetary policy shocks. We find that contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to significant exchange rate appreciation in Malaysia, the People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of Korea. However, in India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, we find either a significant depreciation or no significant effect. These results suggest that an interest rate increase (or decrease) may not necessarily shield Asian countries from exchange rate depreciation (or appreciation) pressure following a U.S. interest rate increase (or decrease).     

An empirical analysis of night-time light data based on the gravity model

This article aims to explore the feasibility of applying night-time light data to the study of trade. Based on 61 countries’ panel data from 1995 to 2012, this research used night-time light data, as the substitute for GDP, to study trade development based on the traditional gravity model. The method of ordinary least squares, Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood and two-stage least squares were used. The results show that geographical distance, country borders and regional agreements have a significant effect on China’s trade with other Belt and Road countries, which verifies the validity of trade research based on night-time light data analysis. Additionally, comparisons reveal the trade trends predicted by night-time light data from 1996 to 2012, were highly consistent with the actual data. This article stands as the first study to apply night-time light data to the gravity model in the research on trade between China and other Belt and Road countries. Breaking new ground, this research uses night-time light data as an economic indicator to study trade, in combination with micro foundations and the latest findings of the gravity model. Thus, this article deepens the understanding of trade analysis and contributing to the field of related researches.     

Supply chain integration and operational performance: The contingency effects of production systems

The boundary conditions of supply chain integration (SCI) have been widely studied in order to find out when SCI is applicable and effective. However, prior studies have mainly focused on external contextual factors, such as supply complexity, environmental uncertainty and country-level infrastructure. This study contributes to the SCI literature by examining the contingency effects of internal production systems on the relationship between supplier integration, customer integration and operational performance. Based on organizational information processing theory, we provide evidence to show that the impact of supplier and customer integration on operational performance varies across production systems, such as one-of-a-kind production, batch production and mass production systems. The empirical results also reveal how supplier and customer integration can be matched with different configurations of production systems in order to achieve the desired quality, flexibility, delivery or cost performance.     

Restoring balance: how consumers orchestrate family care following unplanned disruptions

ABSTRACT

How do consumers orchestrate multiple and complex practices of care when faced with unplanned disruptions to their lives, such as chronic health conditions? We conduct a qualitative study of families where a child was diagnosed with Type-1 diabetes. Inspired by a dance metaphor, we explain how families (1) gather materials for movement, (2) link movements into phrases, and (3) develop an orchestrated style of care as they sense and respond to the dynamic requirements of caregiving when faced with insufficient or unfeasible market solutions. Adding this new perspective to the managerial view used by prior consumer research on family care, we propose an extended perspective on care, which better accounts for how families search to restore life balance in challenging circumstances. This extended perspective illuminates new aspects of consumer engagement with paid and non-paid service providers, and opens avenues for future research in the domain of family care.     

An intelligent service matching method for mechanical equipment condition monitoring using the fibre Bragg grating sensor network

Due to the advantages of being able to function under harsh environmental conditions and serving as a distributed condition information source in a networked monitoring system, the fibre Bragg grating (FBG) sensor network has attracted considerable attention for equipment online condition monitoring. To provide an overall conditional view of the mechanical equipment operation, a networked service-oriented condition monitoring framework based on FBG sensing is proposed, together with an intelligent matching method for supporting monitoring service management. In the novel framework, three classes of progressive service matching approaches, including service-chain knowledge database service matching, multi-objective constrained service matching and workflow-driven human-interactive service matching, are developed and integrated with an enhanced particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm as well as a workflow-driven mechanism. Moreover, the manufacturing domain ontology, FBG sensor network structure and monitoring object are considered to facilitate the automatic matching of condition monitoring services to overcome the limitations of traditional service processing methods. The experimental results demonstrate that FBG monitoring services can be selected intelligently, and the developed condition monitoring system can be re-built rapidly as new equipment joins the framework. The effectiveness of the service matching method is also verified by implementing a prototype system together with its performance analysis.     

基于信息系统体系下的军人健康度评估问题研究

基于信息系统体系下的现代战争要求作战人员既要有强健的体魄,还要有良好的心理素质。只有身心健康,才能培养健全的人格,强化心智活动,矫正不良心理,因此,提高信息化条件下军人身心健康水平,是军队信息化建设的一项重要任务,也是考察军队政治工作质量的重要指标。