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1.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2022,38(1):178-192
Despite the extensive amount of data generated and stored during the maintenance capacity planning process, Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) organizations have yet to explore their full potential in forecasting the required capacity to face future and unprecedented maintenance interventions. This paper explores the integration of time series forecasting capabilities in a tool for maintenance capacity planning of complex product systems (CoPS), intended to value data that is routinely generated and stored, but often disregarded by MROs. State space formulations with multiplicative errors for the simple exponential smoothing (SES), Holt’s linear method (HLM), additive Holt-Winters (AHW), and multiplicative Holt-Winters (MHW) are assessed using real data, comprised of 171 maintenance projects collected from a major Portuguese aircraft MRO. A state space formulation of the MHW, selected using the bias-corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc), is integrated in a Decision Support System (DSS) for capacity planning with probabilistic inference capabilities and used to forecast the workload probability distribution of a future and unprecedent maintenance intervention. The developed tool is validated by comparing forecasted values with workloads of a particular maintenance intervention and with a model simulating current forecasting practices employed by MROs. 相似文献
2.
While the tourism sector shifts towards digital transformation, Destination Management Organisations (DMOs) often struggle to adapt to their changing technological environment. This study explores the antecedents of digital collaboration and develops a framework for micro-DMOs to enhance effective destination management through digital technologies. An integrated sequential qualitative approach was adopted by conducting multi-phase interviews, in addition to designing and trialling a real-world trial digital platform. The research provides empirical evidence that digital collaboration is essential for micro-DMOs, necessitating them to transform their current “websites” into digital platforms which act as a hub for business stakeholders to actively be involved in. Antecedents of successful digital collaboration include mutuality, trust, control, and leadership which may be manifested differently from non-digital collaboration. Additionally, the study identifies three aspects for digital collaboration; marketing, networking and knowledge sharing that demands specific attention. Our results have theoretical, methodological, and practical implications for academia, industry and policymakers. 相似文献
3.
Drawing on the information system success model and perceived value theory, we develop a research model to examine factors that may affect user satisfaction and loyalty of mobile payment platforms. Empirical data was collected from users using Alipay and WeChat Pay in China, and a total of 410 valid responses were gathered for data analysis. The results show that the multi-dimensional formative perceived value including benefits and sacrifice is important determinant of mobile payment user satisfaction and loyalty. The three benefit dimensions of functional value, experiential value and social value are more important value components than the two sacrifice dimensions of risk and cost, and experiential value is the dominant component of mobile payment users' value perception. As for the antecedents of perceived value, system quality and service quality mainly affect perceived benefits, while information quality has a greater impact on risk. The research results provide the contribution of specific value dimensions to users' perceived value and the impact of quality characteristics on specific perceived value for mobile payment platform providers, thus helping them to adopt effective strategies to strengthen market competitiveness and retain existing users. 相似文献
4.
装配式建筑供应链的运作存在很多不确定性。为提高供应链管理效率,促进建筑业的发展,运用供应链运作参考(SCOR)模型对装配式建筑供应链脆弱因子进行识别,将装配式供应链系统划分为6个子系统;通过系统动力学(SD)模型对供应链脆弱性进行仿真。结果表明,装配制造流程是脆弱性最大的子系统,整个供应链的脆弱性随着建筑项目的推进而增大。 相似文献
5.
针对全货运航空公司,研究其货运航线网络的构建问题。基于单分配严格枢纽航线网络,对传统模型进行改进。以各航线上货物的委托运输成本和自有机队的运输成本,取代传统的单位运输成本和折扣因子,考虑枢纽点的中转成本和载运率对路径选择的影响。结合航空货运夜航的特征考虑各机队夜间可用时间的限制,以总成本最小为目标,构建数学模型,采用LINGO优化软件求解,验证模型的有效性,为全货运航空公司构建货运航线网络提供参考。 相似文献
6.
[目的]发展现代农业是促进我国经济社会快速发展的必然要求,结合当下现代化农业的发展情况,对黑龙江省农业综合开发进行评价,探讨多种农业发展的模式,为加快黑龙江省城镇化进程提供助力,为黑龙江省发展现代农业提供理论依据。[方法]通过实地调查法和文献查阅法对相关的研究内容进行汇总和分析。采用层次分析法(AHP)从基础资源设施、科技应用、生态建设、经济效益、政府管理、农村发展6个方面23个指标对黑龙江省农业综合开发进行评价,结合现代农业发展的趋势和黑龙江省农业业态配置情况,为黑龙江省未来农业发展模式提出建议。[结果]黑龙江省农业综合开发的评价指标体系中,生态建设和经济效益方面的权重值比较大,均为0.281 6;而农村发展、基础资源设施和政府管理水平有待提高。综合来看,黑龙江省农业综合开发整体较好,但是在其他方面存在发展不均衡的现象。[结论]黑龙江省农业综合开发进程良好,在农业发展中,基础资源设施、政府管理水平和农村发展水平都有待提高。今后,政府应该加强管理,重视生态文明建设,优化产业结构,发展"农业+生态"、"农业+旅游"、"农业+产业"等多种农业综合发展模式,促进黑龙江省农业更快速地发展,进而提升黑龙江省整体的城镇化水平。 相似文献
7.
国际航空物流中心日益成为区域经济发展、国家对外开放和国际贸易往来的强劲动力和重要功能承载区。对国内外国际航空物流中心发展现状和成功经验进行分析和总结,结合相关文献和专家咨询,对国际航空物流中心发展的影响因素和指标体系进行了归纳,并运用ISM解释结构模型最终得到了这些影响因素指标的层级结构。自下而上分别为深层影响因素层、产业支撑和基础配套体系层、软硬件基础设施层、业务服务层、运营成本控制层和空中通道建设层。下一层级的因素对上一层级的因素有影响和驱动作用。通过因素分析,理清了国际航空物流中心发展的关键因素和因素间的关联关系,为更好推动国际航空物流中心的发展提供理论指导。 相似文献
8.
分析了当前国内外典型中小型特种飞机的特点和应用方向,阐述了中小型特种飞机系统的技术发展趋势。通过分析典型的特种通用飞机的性能和平台构型特点,详细描述了基于典型中小型特种飞机平台的机载侦察监视应用系统的组成、原理、主要性能及技术难点,并结合实际工程应用,介绍了系统的应用成果。应用分析表明,基于中小型特种飞机平台的机载平台的应用系统有较大的应用范围和市场前景。 相似文献
9.
根据供给侧结构性改革的背景和基本内涵,对水资源供给侧结构性改革的内涵进行研究,提出了狭义和广义的水资源供给侧结构性改革的内容。在分析水资源需求新形势的基础上,提出了水资源供给侧结构性改革的要求。根据水循环理论提出了水资源管理是推动水资源供给侧结构性改革的重要抓手,并在最严格水资源管理制度的基础上,提出了符合水资源供给侧结构性改革要求的水资源管理制度。 相似文献
10.
Fan‐chin Kung 《International Journal of Economic Theory》2020,16(1):51-61
Models of cities based on conventional spatial market theory are unable to replicate a realistic size distribution. The stochastic process approach to size distribution, which assumes proportionate growth, does not provide an economic foundation for spatial trades. There is an apparent irreconcilability. We propose that since there is a continuum of equilibria in models of spatial markets with endogenous location, proportionate growth can work as equilibrium selection. We present computations for an urban configuration that has not been presented in the literature before. A small city locates inside a larger city's agricultural supply zone. This generates a larger variation in city size that may include a realistic size distribution. 相似文献