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1.
Trade openness is an important determinant of the inflation process. The effect of trade openness on inflation, however, is still an issue of debate at both theoretical and empirical levels. This study tried to provide a contribution to the literature by examining the relationship between inflation and trade openness in Tunisia over the period 1975Q1-2015Q4 using a nonlinear model. The originality of this study stems from the fact that it is the first investigation considering both the Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with the Regime Shifts and Threshold Regression model. The linear model confirms the existence of a positive relationship between inflation and trade in Tunisia. Yet, considering the nonlinear model, trade openness growth and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation growth show a statistically significant negative link as long as the trade openness evolution does not exceed the threshold. Nevertheless, if the trade openness growth is higher than the threshold, integrating the trade positively affects CPI inflation. Furthermore, a positive influence of Money supply growth on this type of inflation was noticed in Tunisia in all the considered regimes proving the effect of monetary factors on inflation level. Consequently, trade openness could be used to control inflation in Tunisia.  相似文献   
2.
This paper shows evidence that political booms, defined as the rise in governments’ popularity, are associated with a higher likelihood of currency crises. The reasoning behind this finding is that prudent economic policies to address underlying weaknesses in the economy may be political costly for incumbent governments in the short-term. Hence, popularity-concerned governments may not have enough incentives to take such corrective actions in a timely manner. This approach, in turn, can deteriorate economic fundamentals and increase related risks in the economy which can eventually lead to crises. This paper sheds light on this phenomenon in the case of currency crises, suggesting that currency crises can be viewed as “political booms gone bust” events. Moreover, it finds that higher international reserves, higher exports, and a higher degree of financial openness alleviate the effect of political booms on currency crises.  相似文献   
3.
We add to the ongoing discussion regarding the policy consequences of terrorism by analyzing the effect of terrorism on international economic policy for a panel of 170 countries between 1970 and 2016. We find that countries resort to less liberal international economic policies when facing the threat of terrorism. This effect is especially relevant to smaller (less populated) countries. Our main finding is robust to an instrumental-variable approach. We argue that governments pursue less liberal international economic policies in response to terrorism to interrupt the organization and financing of terrorism, limit capital flight, stabilize public finances and signal political resolve.  相似文献   
4.
In this paper, I empirically investigate how the openness of political institutions to diverse representation can impact conflict-related violence. Regression discontinuity estimates that exploit plausibly exogenous variations in the number of councillors in Colombian municipalities show that political openness substantially decreases conflict-related violence, namely the killing of civilian non-combatants. Empirical evidence suggests that the lower level of political violence stems from parties with close links to armed groups having greater representation on larger municipal councils. Using data about the types of violence employed by these groups, and government representation, I argue that armed violence has decreased not because of power-sharing arrangements involving armed groups linked to the parties with more political representation, but rather because armed groups with more political power deter other groups from initiating certain types of violence.  相似文献   
5.
This paper uses spatial panel methods and Chinese provincial data from 2003 to 2017 to study the spatial spillovers of financial openness on economic growth. The results show, first, a positive direct effect and an overall negative spatial spillover of financial openness on provincial growth. Second, there are two spatial spillover channels: a positive growth externality and a harmful resource competition among provinces. Third, we estimate the state dependence and dynamics of spatial spillover, and find that the negative spatial spillover is smaller in provinces with high levels of financial openness and in the long term; thus, the negative spatial spillover declined over time. These results are robust to the choice of SDM and GNS spatial econometrics methods and under different spatial weight matrices.  相似文献   
6.
7.
Banking integration is widely considered as the last stepping stone of economic integration, especially at the regional level. This paper aims to introduce extended measures of banking openness and the overall balanced degree of integration through capital flows. Using the quarterly data from the ASEAN-6 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) from 1996Q4 to 2016Q4, the obtained empirical results reveal that: (i) the degree of banking openness, which measures the total inflows and outflows divided by the total banking assets of the given country, remains low and even slightly decreases, despite the increasing cross-border banking and greater economic links among ASEAN-6; (ii) the overall degree of balance, which calculates the balance and the diversification of outward and inward integration, fluctuates over time but reaches the well-balanced level. Furthermore, the research highlights main drivers of the banking integration in this region, such as regulatory quality, bank size and the global credit risk. These findings have important policy implications for banking stability and integration in ASEAN-6.  相似文献   
8.
This paper investigates the non-linear effects of two aspects of economic openness, namely, trade openness and financial openness, on banking system stability. We use a panel of 42 emerging markets from 2000 to 2014 to test whether bank risk-taking behaviour varies with the level of openness. We find that a higher degree of trade openness promotes bank stability linearly. Conversely, the non-linear effect of financial openness on bank risk-taking is evident. When the financial system is not sufficiently open, the impact of financial openness on bank stability is insignificant. However, as the domestic financial market becomes more open, financial openness can help discipline the behaviour of banks, making them more stable. We also find evidence that these effects are transmitted through the market discipline channel. Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening the domestic regulatory framework and transparency as the economy becomes more integrated.  相似文献   
9.
长期以来,人们只看重货币国际化结果,以占全球贸易计价结算比重、外汇交易比重、国际债券比重、外汇储备比重等相关指标衡量一国货币的国际化程度,而忽视货币跨境流动放松过程,即一国货币的跨境流动自由化程度。货币国际化是一个过程又是一种结果,包含进程和结果两个层面,在货币国际化进程中,过早过快放松本币流出入会引发经济金融风险,某些情形下进程比结果更值得关注。构建人民币跨境自由度指数涉及强度赋值、项目设置和权重确定三方面内容。在梳理2019年第2季度前我国货币政策基础上,对2008年至2019年经常项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度、证券投资项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度以及资本项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度进行评估,并以美国近5年各项目下的资金流动平均占比为权重,构建了人民币跨境流动自由化指数,考察2008—2019年人民币跨境流动自由化程度,结果显示人民币国际化进展较快,跨境流动已得到很大程度放松,而且人民币流入自由程度显著高于流出自由度。我国人民币国际化进程应持续遵循先经常项目后资本项目、先流入后流出、先机构后个人、先大额后小额、先风险小项目后风险大项目的次序,提高人民币跨境流动的稳定性,降低无序流动的投机风险;严格管控证券投资、其他投资、衍生品项目下人民币跨境流动,并依据我国利率市场化程度、金融市场发达程度及审慎监管能力进行调整;大力提升经常项目的人民币结算比重,发展人民币离岸市场,提高非居民间的人民币使用频率和使用规模;充分评估各项目下人民币跨境流动和本外币兑换自由度,提高两者的协同匹配程度,降低因两者不匹配而产生的负面影响。  相似文献   
10.
随着全球经贸规则的加速重构,我国自贸协定的谈判和签署步伐明显加快,且签署协定的开放水平不断提升,协定实施对双边贸易也产生了显著的促进效果。未来,中国的自贸协定谈判将呈现出覆盖范围更广、开放层次更高、协定对象向重点国家和地区突破的态势。为了实现"形成覆盖全球的高标准自贸区网络"的目标,我国应通过积极参与构建超大型自贸区、将自贸区网络建设与"一带一路"倡议相结合、深化自身改革提供制度支撑、综合考量宏观收益开展自贸谈判、设计兼具稳定性和灵活性的自贸协定"范式"等策略来推进自贸区建设。  相似文献   
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