Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

The Impact of the Implementation of Technology Education on In-Service Teacher Education in South Africa (Impact of Technology Education in the RSA)

In this article the impact of technology education, as a new learning area (subject) in the curriculum, on in-service teacher education in South Africa is described in order to ascertain the extent of the impact. The research on which this article is based draws on a variety of experiences and observations in the field at grassroots level (in particular an outreach project in rural communities). The envisaged impact of technology education on South African schools, communities, teacher educators and teachers, the range of in-service teacher education that is required, and the impacts in urban and rural areas are discussed. Finally a number of concluding remarks are made about the extent of the impact of the inclusion of technology education in the new National Curriculum Statement and whether the situation has changed since the implementation of a pilot technology education project in 1998. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

跨国垄断在中国:现状、影响及规制

该文通过统计数据和案例分析认为跨国垄断已经在中国发生，并指出存在着两种不同类型的跨国垄断，即跨国企业整体垄断某个行业和单个跨国企业垄断整个行业；进而分析了两种不同形态的垄断对经济造成的不良影响。最后，探讨了如何防范和规制跨国垄断，认为防范跨国垄断要从多方面着手，除了最重要的竞争政策手段以外，还必须在反垄断法中加强对跨国垄断的规制。     

货币政策的目标、效能与协调运用

货币政策的目标是多元化的，如价格稳定、经济增长等。通过货币政策的调整可以发挥其调节经济的效能。在货币政策协调过程中，运用好与其它社会经济政策的关系，对于提高宏观调控的科学性大有裨益。     

追随客户与外资银行进入：中国的证据与政策含义

借鉴国外同行的分析方法,对追随客户假说在中国的适用性的检验表明：出口、进出口总量和外商直接投资对外资银行的进入存在正向影响,而进口的影响则为负.从政策层面上看,外资银行进入原因的复杂性蕴含着诸多机遇与挑战,而核心则是协调对外贸易政策、外商直接投资政策和金融管制等多种政策工具与手段.     

西汉初期“与民休息”政策述论

西汉初期是我国农业经济迅速恢复并达到空前繁荣的时期,这与西汉初期统治集团采取了比较符合实际的"与民休息"的经济政策紧密相关。其时代背景主要是鉴于秦朝实行严刑峻法、横征暴敛政策而亡的历史教训,以及汉初经济崩溃、民生凋敝的实际状况。"与民休息"政策内容丰富,主要包括调整土地关系、赋予军功贵族免役特权、免部分官私奴婢为庶人、减免田税口算徭戍、崇尚节俭和轻刑慎罚等六个方面。"与民休息"的经济政策,将为我们今天解决"三农"问题,发展农业经济,建设社会主义新农村提供有益的借鉴。     

Competition Policy: What are the Costs and Benefits of Measuring its Costs and Benefits?

Summary  Competition authorities are increasingly measuring the effects of their enforcement actions, seeking a robust justification for the proliferation of competition policy. We highlight the importance of identifying the right counterfactual against which to measure effects, and set out the relevant categories of costs and benefits. We then explore how a balance can be struck between the benefits and inherent limitations of these measurement exercises. Relatively crude analyses of cartel action benefits can be sufficient to achieve public legitimacy for competition policy. Assessing the effects of merger and conduct inquiries is often ambiguous, but could be used to improve decision-making processes. Director and Managing Consultant, respectively, at Oxera, Oxford and London. The valuable comments of Fod Barnes, Kerry Hughes and an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors alone.     

浅论我国农产品流通企业扩张的基本规律与政策规制

通过对农产品流通企业扩张形式全面的理论梳理, 研究总结了二种类型的农产品流通企业扩张基本规律,即纵向扩张和横向扩张,并对中国农产品企业扩张问题进行了实证研究,最后对我国农产品流通企业扩张提出建议.     

金融组织强制性信息披露问题研究

由于规模经济的原因,作为信息劣势方——投资者公共利益代表者的政府必然成为强制性信忠披露的主体。政府按照参与约束原则和激励相容原则进行机制设计甄别金融组织,引导其确定合理的信忠披露边界,形成分离均衡,金融市场上的非对称信息转变为对称信息。但政府强制金融组织进行信息披露时,应尊重其利益追求和考虑金融市场发育程度等。     

Software for Learning and for Doing Statistics

The community of statisticians and statistics educators should take responsibility for the evaluation and improvement of software quality from the perspective of education. The paper will develop a perspective, an ideal system of requirements to critically evaluate existing software and to produce future software more adequate both for learning and doing statistics in introductory courses. Different kinds of tools and microworlds are needed. After discussing general requirements for such programs, a prototypical ideal software system will be presented in detail. It will be illustrated how such a system could be used to construct learning environments and to support elementary data analysis with exploratory working style.