实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

Deep learning for modeling the collection rate for third-party buyers

This study evaluates a wide range of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, boosting, and support vector regression to predict the collection rate of more than 65,000 defaulted consumer credits from the telecommunications sector that were bought by a German third-party company. Weighted performance measures were defined based on the value of exposure at default for comparing collection rate models. The approach proposed in this paper is useful for a third-party company in managing the risk of a portfolio of defaulted credit that it purchases. The main finding is that one of the machine learning models we investigate, the deep learning model, performs significantly better out-of-sample than all other methods that can be used by an acquirer of defaulted credits based on weighted-performance measures. By using unweighted performance measures, deep learning and boosting perform similarly. Moreover, we find that using a training set with a larger proportion of the dataset does not improve prediction accuracy significantly when deep learning is used. The general conclusion is that deep learning is a potentially performance-enhancing tool for credit risk management.     

Determinants of China's bilateral trade balance in global value chains

This paper identifies the determinants of China's bilateral trade balance using a new measure based on international input–output data, the so-called ‘trade in value-added’ (TiVA), which can prevent double counting in the estimation of bilateral trade balance. Our results show that using a measure based on gross exports, rather than TiVA, causes relatively large overestimation of the impact of the RMB exchange rate on China's bilateral trade balance. This overestimation is mainly because that the increasing production of exports may require increasing intermediate imports as a consequence of international fragmentation of production in global value chains. In addition, our results also show that the impact of FDI inflows on China's bilateral trade balances depends on the position and role of China and its trading partners in GVCs.     

Mobile diaries – Benchmark against metered measurements: An empirical investigation

Researchers seeking to study the relationships between consumers' communications, attitudes, and behaviors could benefit from monitoring consumers over time, across multiple locations and channels, and in a way that reflects consumers' subjective perceptions. Diaries on smartphones (mobile diaries) can be used as a research tool for such purposes. A mobile diary is a self-report instrument whereby people use their mobile handset to repeatedly report experiences of interest. Mobile diaries are increasingly used in psychology, geography, medicine, and commercial marketing. Yet they have rarely been used for quantitative marketing research, and were not benchmarked against best-practice metrics in marketing.In this study, we aim to set the ground for using mobile diaries in quantitative marketing research. We first lay out the theoretical infrastructure for the usage of mobile diaries, and describe possible respondent reporting concerns, including concerns related to non-reporting, reporting over time, and concerns stemming from individual-level heterogeneity.We demonstrate the potential of mobile diaries, as well as the importance of the various concerns, using a benchmark test case in the context of primetime TV viewing. Our benchmark uses a sample of respondents with both mobile diary viewing reports and Nielsen People Meter (NPM) records. Our analysis reveals that averaging across all conditions, 47.4%–64.7% of the NPM records are reported by the diary. The major sources for mismatch are random time periods without alarms, short viewings, and periodic reporting inactivity (pulsing). Concerns such as a decrease in reporting rates over time (e.g., fatigue), smartphone ownership, and demographic variation across individuals have relatively small effects on reporting likelihood. Analyzing the cases in which diary reports do not have a matching NPM record, we find many of them can be attributed to out-of-home viewing and viewing on non-metered devices. This finding demonstrates how mobile diaries can complement metered measurements. Overall, aggregate diary-based ratings have a 0.90 correlation with NPM ratings.We discuss implications for designing and using mobile diary studies in marketing.     

The exchange regime and trade balance in Turkey

Over the last 15 years, high trade deficits have become a source of external vulnerability for the relatively stabilized Turkish economy. This corresponds to the period where authorities have been following a floating exchange rate regime. Thus, this study aims to empirically show whether the adopted exchange rate regime has an impact on the trade balance for the period of 1987 Q1 to 2015 Q2. Estimation results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the real effective exchange rate and trade balance under both fixed and floating regimes in Turkey, but there is no evidence for the J-curve hypothesis.     

On credit and output: Is the supply of credit relevant?

The consensus that changes in the supply of credit were irrelevant to making monetary policy decisions existed among macroeconomists during the second half of the twentieth century. Transmission of shocks to the real economy through changes in the supply of credit, however, played an important role in the recent U.S. financial crisis. This paper explores the extent to which policymakers should consider changes in the supply of credit when making forecasts and monetary policy decisions. More specifically, it considers whether a measure of real credit balances offers consistent and stable information, beyond that of a real interest rate and real money balances, about future output gaps during the U.S. post-war era. Results yield evidence that changes in real credit balances are the only variable, among those considered, to provide consistent and stable information about future output gaps over the entire sample period. Each information variable, however, provides relatively little value added for forecasting future output gaps, beyond a simple autoregressive model. To improve upon forecasts and monetary policy decisions, policymakers therefore should consider a broader range of information variables and occasionally reassess the relative weightings assigned to each.     

延迟退休年龄下隔代抚育与劳动参与的抉择*——基于工资收入随机性假定的研究

隔代抚育会对延迟退休年龄政策在促进劳动力供给上产生挤出效应。为了对此进行验证，本文在工资收入随机性的假定及延迟退休5年的情景下，模拟了面临孙辈照护需求的女性临近退休者提前退休所产生的福利变化。进一步，本文采用CHIP和CHARLS的微观调查数据，对不同群组的收入增长率和收入风险进行了估计，继而分析了当面临孙辈照护需求时这些收入特征对退休决策者制度退休和退休后劳动参与抉择产生的影响。总体上，在延迟退休年龄政策下，隔代抚育将对女性劳动力供给产生挤出效应。当面临孙辈照护需求时，女性临近退休者的制度退休抉择主要受自身收入增长率和收入风险的影响，收入增长率越低，或收入风险越高，她们提前退休的意愿就越强烈；制度退休后的劳动参与则更多地受子女收入增长率的影响，子女收入增长率越高，劳动参与的概率越低。     

Tax-benefit systems and differences in aggregate labour force participation: Comparative evidence from the Czech Republic and Hungary

This paper investigates the extent to which cross-country differences in aggregate participation rates can be explained by differences in tax-benefit systems. We take the example of two countries, the Czech Republic and Hungary, which – despite a lot of similarities – differ markedly in labour force participation rates. Using comparable individual-level labour supply estimates, we simulate how the aggregate participation rate would change in one country if the other country’s tax and social welfare system were adopted. The estimation results for the two countries are quite similar, suggesting that individual preferences are essentially identical in the two countries. The simulation results show that about one-third of the difference in the participation rates of the 15–74 year-old population and more than two-thirds of the participation of the prime-age population can be explained by differences in the tax-benefit systems.     

An Empirical Assessment of the Swedish Bullionist Controversy*

In the 18th century, a fierce political debate broke out in Sweden about the causes of an extraordinary depreciation of the currency. More specifically, the deteriorating value of the Swedish currency was blamed arbitrarily on monetary causes (e.g., the overissuing of banknotes) and on non-monetary causes (such as balance-of-payments deficits). This paper provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of this so-called “Swedish Bullionist Controversy”. The results of vector autoregressions suggest that increasing amounts of paper money did give rise to inflation and a depreciation of the exchange rate. Conversely, non-monetary factors were probably less important for these developments.     

中国木质家具出口贸易与汇率波动关系研究

木质家具是我国最重要的出口林产品之一。人民币汇率改革后,人民币总体呈升值趋势,这一趋势提高了国产木质家具的出口价格,会产生阻碍出口的作用;与此同时其也会使进口原材料价格相对降低、促进原材料的进口,二者相互作用会共同影响木质家具出口额。通过建立回归模型,研究人民币汇率波动对中国木质家具出口贸易额的影响,结果表明人民币汇率与中国木质家具出口额呈负相关,但是通过人民币贬值来促进出口的策略并不明智。