基于系统动力学的区域林业碳汇市场中三方主体利益行为演化博弈分析

分析影响三者策略行为的作用因素,构建区域林业碳汇市场的演化博弈模型。在此基础上,结合系统动力学理论,对广东省的碳汇发展状况进行仿真模拟,找出影响市场均衡发展的关键因素。结果表明:政府部门趋向于选择投入策略,其中提高市场碳交易额对拉动市场需求有显著影响,而增强对林农碳汇林的补贴力度难以解决市场当前供需问题。     

二叉树期权定价模式评估林业碳汇项目的价值

基于黑龙江省林业局和中国林业统计年鉴的数据,运用修正的Faustmann模型和二叉树期权定价方法分析黑龙江省黑河造林林区的碳汇价值及该项目的经济可行性。研究结果表明:经营成本负向影响项目的最终价值;碳汇价格和木材价格正向影响项目的最终价值;初始价值正向影响项目的最终价值;黑龙江省黑河造林林区项目具有较高的经济效益和生态效益。因此,相关部门应建立完善的碳汇交易市场,实施激励措施和制定林地产权制度。     

Assessment of land use and land cover changes and valuation of carbon stocks in the Sergipe semiarid region,Brazil: 1992–2030

The semiarid region in the state of Sergipe, Brazil, approximately 11,000 km², has experienced high deforestation rates in the last decades, which ultimately contribute to global climatic changes. The valuation of ecosystem services of CO₂ sequestration can support definition of environmental policies to decrease deforestation in that region. This study aimed to assess land use and land cover changes in the Sergipe semiarid region between 1992 and 2017 by applying remotely sensed data and technics; simulate the land use and land cover changes between 2017 and 2030 by applying a cellular automaton model, by assuming current land use trends (Business as Usual – BAU) as a reference scenario, and a more conservative scenario (Protected Forest – PF), in which was assumed an effective enforcement of the Brazilian Forest Code established in 2012; simulate the carbon stocks by 2017 assuming the BAU and PF scenarios by 2030, and estimate the Carbon balance between the 2030 and 2017 scenarios; and estimate the economic valuation of carbon emission and sequestration by using the InVEST software. The results showed that agriculture (cropped lands) was main driver of the landscape changes in the study area, which increased 14% by 2017, a net increase of 1494.45 km². The results showed that the total Carbon emissions would reach 736,900 Mg CO₂-eq by assuming the BAU scenario, which would increase the cost of opportunity up to US$ 17.7 million and a social carbon cost varying between US$ 10.3 and US$ 30.2 million. The restoration of the permanent preservation areas could contribute to increase Carbon sequestration up to 481,900 Mg CO₂-eq by 2030, which is equivalent cost of US$ 11.6 million. The natural landscape in the Sergipe semiarid region was strongly affected by deforestation activities occurred between 1992 and 2017. It requires, therefore, effective actions to support and promote restoration of degraded areas. The forested areas within the Sergipe semiarid region were the most affected type of vegetation because of expansion of agricultural fields soil exposures (Exposed Land). Environmental assessments based on scenarios and economic valuations can provide crucial information to support policy and decision makers to improve strategies for environmental management and conservation.     

Is forest carbon sequestration at the expense of bioenergy and forest products cost-efficient in EU climate policy to 2050?

Forest management affects the quantity of CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere through carbon sequestration in standing biomass, carbon storage in forest products and production of bioenergy. The main question studied in this paper is whether forest carbon sequestration is worth increasing at the expense of bioenergy and forest products to achieve the EU emissions reduction target for 2050 in a cost-efficient manner. A dynamic cost minimisation model is used to find the optimal combination of carbon abatement strategies to meet annual emissions targets between 2010 and 2050. The results indicate that forest carbon sequestration is a low-cost abatement method. With sequestration, the net present costs of meeting EU carbon targets can be reduced by 23%.     

Soil is brown gold in the Emilia-Romagna region,Italy

Soil is a natural resource essential to human welfare by virtue of its numerous crucial functions. In the past, soil has been taken for granted because of its widespread, albeit finite, availability. However, now that world's population is projected to exceed ten billion before the end of this century, soil is increasingly perceived as a precious commodity. Consequently, soil is increasingly under pressure by rich private investors and governments within the poorest countries to satisfy appetites for food production and biofuel. A case study is used to explore the plausibility of soil being considered as ‘brown gold’. Based on the comparison of land use maps, we estimated the value in terms of resource from raw material, carbon sink and virtual calories of the productive soil lost during the period 2003–2008 in the Emilia-Romagna Plain, one of the most productive areas of Italy. More than fifteen thousand hectares of cropland underwent land use change – in particular urbanization – over the 6-year period with an implied loss of crop production potential equivalent to the daily calorific requirement of more than 440,000 people. Taking into account that Italy is no longer self-sufficient in food production, such a loss appears to be strategically significant. Perhaps more importantly, urbanization and soil sealing has had negative ramifications on environmental sustainability, on both local and broad scales, with increased consumption of public funds. A logical framework of the socio-economic impact of land use change has been compiled and is presented as a possible example of a policy relevant approach to managing productive soils as a finite resource.     

Agricultural landowners⿿ response to incentives for afforestation

Previous research has shown that afforestation of agricultural land is a relatively low-cost option compared to energy-based approaches for mitigating net carbon dioxide emissions, and that financial incentives affect landowner behavior and can be used to increase carbon sequestration on private land. In this paper we use stated preference data from private landowners in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. to examine the key factors affecting participation in an incentive program for carbon sequestration through afforestation. We also estimate the corresponding potential for carbon sequestration and its cost. Our results suggest that incentive payments would significantly and positively affect landowners⿿ level of enrollment in a tree planting program.     

森林碳汇价值与农户林业收入增长的分析

根据福建省顺昌县农户林业收入的调查数据,从林产品收入、林业服务性收入、林地地租收入、生态公益林补偿收入、其他涉林收入等方面对农户林业收入构成进行分析,发现森林生态效益在农户林业收入中的贡献非常小,仅占0.18%;以现有碳汇市场为参考,通过森林蓄积量换算因子法估算出该县的森林碳汇量及其碳汇价值,指出森林碳汇价值的实现可以有效地增加农户林业生态收入、改善农户的林业收入结构;并探讨了农户森林碳汇价值实现的途径。     

我国森林碳汇市场构建的研究

随着气候变暖趋势的到来,对森林碳汇市场这种新兴市场的研究,在国际上已经迅速开展起来。然而,在我国,森林碳汇市场并未得到其应有的发展。在阐述了森林碳汇市场在我国建立的必要性与可行性、发展优势与市场建立的障碍以及发展的巨大潜力的基础上,从五个方面分析了森林碳汇市场的运行机制,提出了构建我国森林碳汇市场的具体措施和建议。     

中国森林碳汇市场的研究现状及进一步发展的建议

森林碳汇市场的形成经历了自愿行动、试验交易、经验总结和强化认识以及规范、发展等四个阶段.自从它形成之后,国内外的学者纷纷对其进行研究,他们发现计量体系不完善、相关市场制度和规则不完善、法制不完善、市场信息的难以获得以及较高的交易成本等因素阻碍了中国森林碳汇市场的发展.文章建议通过建立控制温室气体排放的强制性政策、建立统一的森林碳汇计量体系和标准、制订相应的法规条例、加强对森林碳汇理论的宣传和研究以及降低交易成本等措施来促进中国森林碳汇市场的发展.     

德国CO2捕获和封存技术发展展望

减低温室气体排放，防止气候变化已是全球共同面临的巨大挑战和急迫解决的问题。世界上有约40％的CO2排放源于燃烧化石燃料的发电厂。目前，全球公认的降低CO2排放最有效的方法之一是碳捕获和封存技术（CCS）。CCS是指CO2从工业或相关能源的排放源分离出来，输送到一个封存地点，并且长期与大气隔绝的一个过程。CCS是稳定大气温室气体浓度的减缓行动中的一种选择方案，具有减少整体减缓成本以及增加实现温室气体减排灵活性的潜力，是有效大量去除CO2排放的关键技术。本文介绍了CO2捕获封存技术的基本情况和德国对CCS技术开发和应用制定的相关资助计划、发展规划和实施项目，并对我国CCS技术的发展提出建议。