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1.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2022,38(1):282-299
Studies of financial market informational efficiency have proven burdensome in practice, because it is difficult to pinpoint when news breaks and is known by some or all the participants. We overcome this by designing a framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets. We demonstrate this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when the first goal is scored in a match as major news that breaks cleanly. There are pre-match and in-play mispricing and inefficiency in these markets, explained by reverse favourite-longshot bias (favourite bias). The mispricing tends to increase when the major news is a surprise, such as a goal scored by a longshot team late in a match, with the market underestimating their chances of going on to win These results suggest that, even in prediction markets with large crowds of participants trading state-contingent claims, significant informational inefficiency and behavioural biases can be reflected in prices. 相似文献
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The panic buying behavior under public health emergencies will lead to many adverse consequences, such as material waste, price fluctuation and uneven distribution of epidemic prevention materials, which will pose a threat to the social stability and economic development. In this paper, we construct a tripartite game model to explore the strategic choices of the public, merchants and the government in order to effectively respond to the panic buying behavior in the epidemic. The results demonstrate that: (1) Eight evolutionary stable strategies emerge in the panic buying events. The worst scenario can be improved by adjusting some relevant parameters. (2) The probability of the public choosing the strategy of “not involving in panic buying” depends on the potential benefits and losses of snapping up, rather than the extent of price rising. (3) The probability of merchants choosing the strategy of “not bid up price” depends on the intangible benefits. (4) The probability of the government choosing the strategy of “active supervision” depends on the supervision costs and government credibility, rather than the amount of fines. In addition, strategic suggestions to mitigate panic buying behavior are put forward from the perspective of each stakeholder. 相似文献
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The prevalence of online health communities (OHCs) motivates health product companies to manipulate persuasion-based marketing strategies, including fear appeals and coping appeals, to promote health products. However, whether such a practice is effective remains unclear. Respondents may either impulsively purchase the recommended health products or simply distance themselves psychologically from the information. Building on protection motivation theory (PMT), this study uncovers the mechanisms behind these two coping responses to persuasive messages, namely, the impulsive purchasing and psychological distancing of OHC users. Correspondingly, we evaluated 366 valid questionnaires, and the results reveal that (1) when encountering fear appeals, perceived health threat can evoke cyberchondria, leading to psychological distancing; and (2) when encountering coping appeals, perceived response efficacy leads to product affection, fostering impulsive purchasing. This study provides new insights into the effects of persuasive messages for health product promotion in social commerce. Marketers should design appropriate persuasive messages to foster impulsive purchasing by generating individuals’ product affection and avoiding cyberchondria. 相似文献
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随着我国高职教育的迅速发展,以“工学结合”为特色的课程标准广泛应用于高职院校烹饪专业的教学中。食品营养与卫生课程是一门重要的课程,为进一步提升该课程的教学质量,培养学生的职业能力和职业素养。本文结合食品营养与卫生课程教学改革现状,提出教学改革途径,以期实现食品营养与卫生教学质量的进一步提升。 相似文献
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目的 基于可持续生计分析(SLA)框架,对生计资本影响山区农户分化进行深入研究,为职业分化背景下促进农户多渠道创收以及实现山区乡村振兴提供参考。方法 文章运用比较分析法、多值选择模型,以广西山区的540家农户为研究对象,探讨农户职业分化的影响因素。结果 研究结果表明,社会资本有助于纯农户与非农农户向以农为主的兼业农户分化;自然资本丰裕更能吸引农户向纯农户或以农为主的兼业分化;增加金融资本有助于兼业农户专注于农业生产,也促使非农经营主体投身于农业经营;物质资本影响农户向纯农户或以非农为主的兼业农户转变;拥有自身务工经历的农民更易于选择以农为主的兼业形态,对农民进行农业技术培训因提升其农业生产经营能力从而有助于他们投身于农业生产;生计资本影响农户分化的程度因距离中心市场的远近而存在差异。结论 生计资本影响农户向不同类型的职业进行分化,应从鼓励农户兼业化实现收入多元化以及鼓励乡村精英返乡创业的视角,适应不同类型农户分化需要,为调整农户生计资本,维持生计可持续性提供必要的决策支持和政策保障。 相似文献
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纺织业作为山东省高密市的第一大产业,在本市的经济社会生活中占据重要位置。文章以结合山东省高密市家纺新材料产业集群现状,就如何发展家纺新材料产业集群提出了几点自己的看法。 相似文献