Institutional dynamics and access to non-farm employment in rural China, 1950–1996

This article examines non-farm employment in the context of Chinese rural institutional change, based on evidence from discrete-time logistic models for event history analysis using the Life History and Social Change survey. We find the transition to non-farm sector rose rapidly during the Great Leap Forward and market reform, while the Cultural Revolution saw it reach the lowest ebb. While male advantage prevailed exclusively during the Cultural Revolution and early marketization, education possessed a stable positive effect in all historical periods. Although the returns to different kinds of political capital vary along with institutional dynamics, intergenerational reproduction was greatly reduced after the Cultural Revolution.     

Verification results for age-structured models of economic–epidemics dynamics

In this paper we propose a macro-dynamic age-structured set-up for the analysis of epidemics/economic dynamics in continuous time.The resulting optimal control problem is reformulated in an infinite dimensional Hilbert space framework where we perform the basic steps of dynamic programming approach.Our main result is a verification theorem which allows to guess the feedback form of optimal strategies. This will be a departure point to discuss the behavior of the models of the family we introduce and their policy implications.     

我国省域农业隐含碳排放及其驱动因素时空动态分析

[目的]我国区域农业发展模式由于气候、环境的不同存在较大的差异,而目前针对农业隐含碳的时空动态研究较为缺乏,导致对于区域减排目标的设定缺乏全面的考虑,无法实现农业碳减排的效率性和公平性。因此,有必要分析农业隐含碳排放在不同省域的特征并分析其驱动因素,为制定体现地区间公平性且有效率的碳减排政策提供依据。[方法]文章利用2002年、2007年和2012年3年的投入产出表估算我国各省(市、区)农业隐含碳排放量,根据Kaya恒等关系将其分解为经济规模、经济结构、一般农业技术进步和低碳农业技术进步4类影响因素,并利用LMDI分解分析法对这4类影响因素的驱动力进行了分析。[结果]2002—2012年我国大部分地区农业隐含碳排放量呈上升趋势,空间上呈现从西到东、从南到北逐渐增加的分布规律,经济规模效应在各省份均呈正向驱动,且在经济发展较为迅速、经济增长后劲较强的地区驱动效应逐渐增强;经济结构效应在大部分省份呈负向驱动,且在重型工业的聚集区域负向效应逐渐增强;一般农业技术因素正向驱动区域逐渐扩散,且在农业大省正向驱动效应逐渐增强;低碳农业技术进步因素在东部发达地区负向的驱动效应较强,在西部驱动效应较弱。[结论]在未来的农业减排政策制定过程中,需要充分考虑不同地区的经济发展、产业结构、农业生产等特点。     

突破性技术创新研究:现状与展望——基于SSCI和CSSCI期刊的文献计量分析

突破性技术创新是中国落实创新驱动、绿色发展、提升关键核心技术创新能力等多个国家战略的重要路径。本文采用文献计量方法和知识图谱工具,以2001—2018年发表于SSCI和CSSCI期刊的765篇文献为研究样本,从多个视角系统揭示国内外突破性技术创新研究的现状,并对未来研究方向进行展望。主要研究结论是:近18年国内外突破性技术创新研究发文量总体呈逐年上升趋势,国内研究与国外相比起步较晚且持续热度较低、对外合作研究较少且国际影响力不足;突破性技术创新研究遵循的理论基础主要是社会网络理论、动态资源管理理论和组织学习理论;突破性技术创新研究的热点主要集中于技术、组织、资源和财务四个方面,与市场发展问题相关的研究是薄弱环节。进一步从创新主体、创新变轨、研究层次和研究主题四个方面归纳了突破性技术创新研究热点的演化规律和存在问题。突破性技术创新的市场风险、跨国合作战略、大数据赋能和绿色导向会成为未来突破性技术创新研究的主攻方向。     

基于SD模型的装配式建筑供应链脆弱性研究

装配式建筑供应链的运作存在很多不确定性。为提高供应链管理效率，促进建筑业的发展，运用供应链运作参考(SCOR)模型对装配式建筑供应链脆弱因子进行识别，将装配式供应链系统划分为6个子系统；通过系统动力学（SD）模型对供应链脆弱性进行仿真。结果表明，装配制造流程是脆弱性最大的子系统，整个供应链的脆弱性随着建筑项目的推进而增大。     

Capital flows and growth dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe

This article assesses the importance of capital flows as measured by the current account balance for the growth dynamics of the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe. Economic growth in these countries was on average relatively high before the global financial crisis but markedly lower after the crisis. Panel data econometrics using annual data for 1997–2015 point to the contemporaneous current account balance having a sizeable negative effect on annual GDP growth. Estimations using many control variables and instrumental variables suggest that the negative effect is mainly demand driven. Counterfactual simulations show that growth rates in all CEE countries would have been lower in the absence of capital flows, and this applies particularly to the countries with the most disadvantageous starting points.     

新制度经济学视角下的中国农地制度变迁：回顾与展望

研究目的:分析总结中国农地制度变迁的路径特征、决定条件和影响因素,并展望进一步研究方向。研究方法:文献分析法。研究结果:(1)改革开放以来的中国农地制度变迁呈现出一个较清晰的路径,即改革始终沿着市场取向、明晰产权、稳定地权的方向演进;(2)农地使用权制度改革的成功源于诱致性变迁与强制性变迁的结合,即弹性的中央政策制定、渐进式的地方实施以及具有学习效应的农户认知三者的有机互动,并体现出制度变迁的"共生演化"特征及其蕴含的"适应性效率";(3)新制度经济学是解释中国经济改革和农地制度变迁的有效工具,然而由于经典的新制度经济学本质上的静态性以及国家理论的缺乏,难以对现实世界的各类制度变迁给出一般化的解释。研究结论:基于经典的新制度经济学,进一步整合行为经济学、机制设计理论、演化博弈论等理论工具,超越"强制性—诱致性变迁"二分法,构建一个真正动态的制度变迁模型是一个重要研究方向。     

Estimating emissions based on the integration of microscopic traffic simulation and vehicle dynamics model

This study proposes an integrated simulation approach, which consists of a microscopic traffic simulation model, a vehicle dynamics model, and an emission estimation model, in order to estimate emissions based on more reliable vehicle performance measures. The vehicle performance measures such as engine power and engine speed significantly relate to the amount of emissions, and road curvatures and inclinations are the core inputs affecting these vehicle performance measures. Therefore, providing reliable vehicle performance measures reflecting the road geometric attributes is critical for a reliable emission estimation. This study proposes to use the microscopic traffic simulation model for generating vehicle trajectories, which is advantageous in modeling various traffic situations, and the vehicle dynamics model for producing the vehicle performance measures based on the vehicle trajectories. Finally, the outputs from the vehicle dynamics model are fed into the emission estimation model to compute emission measures. This study conducted a case-study using two road sections, one is a hypothesized road section, including various curvatures and inclinations with regular variations, and the other is a Kesselberg road section, which is an actual geometry in Bayern, Germany. The emission measures are estimated in these case-study road sections using both an existing simulation approach and the proposed integrated simulation approach. The difference between these two emission estimation approaches is discussed in terms of the emission measures, including fuel consumption, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matters.     

我国秸秆综合利用面临形势与对策研究

[目的]为加快推动秸秆资源化利用,促进农业绿色发展。[方法]文章在系统梳理我国秸秆综合利用政策文件、相关文献的基础上,全面分析了我国农作物秸秆禁烧和综合利用的发展阶段,提出了秸秆利用面临的形势和存在的主要问题。[结果]我国秸秆综合利用从时间序列上,可以划分为起步阶段、强力推进阶段和攻坚阶段。城镇化的快速推进、农村能源结构的调整、农业供给侧结构性改革的实施、农作物季节矛盾突出等,成为秸秆综合利用面临的新形势、新挑战。当前推进秸秆综合利用存在四大方面问题:秸秆还田成本较高,区域技术规范和技术适宜性缺乏;受"成本地板"和"价格天花板"双重挤压,秸秆产业化利用发展困难;秸秆收储运成本高,技术装备水平低,用地、运输问题尚未解决,收储运体系建设不健全;关键性政策工具尚未破题,缺乏普惠性、针对性的资金扶持。[结论]针对形势与问题,提出了推进秸秆资源化利用的4条对策建议:开展县域秸秆全量化利用、分区施策确定秸秆利用方向、加强政策工具集成创设、扩大试点示范引导。