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1.
A moral hazard model is used to show why overly optimistic revenue forecasts prior to elections can be optimal: Opportunistic governments can increase spending and appear more competent; ex post deficits emerge in election years, thereby producing political forecast cycles – as also found for US states in the empirical literature. Additionally, we obtain three theoretical results which are tested with panel data for Portuguese municipalities. The extent of manipulations is reduced when (i) the winning margin is expected to widen; (ii) the incumbent is not re-running; and/or (iii) the share of informed voters (proxied by education) goes up.  相似文献   
2.
建章宫“一池三山”的布局源于汉武帝的神仙信仰。受此影响,其中的仙山形象应是上广中狭的台状构筑物。此种台状仙山与汉代慕拟自然的假山形象并行发展,成为后世皇家园林“一池三山”的主要表达方式。通过对汉代图像资料中的仙山形象进行梳理,并结合相关的文献记载,对“一池三山”的仙山形态进行探究。进而分析了这一仙山形态在古典园林仙境景观中的发展演变,及其与汉代园林中用于迎仙的台的区别与联系,为进一步理解早期园林中的景观内容提供新的线索。  相似文献   
3.
为实现大规模集成电路中的"自动布线问题",首先针对单层平面内通道自动布线问题使用A*算法,发现上下引脚连接线路发生路径冲突时,单通道自动布线问题无解.对多层数电路通道自动布线使用Floyd算法建模,分别对每层线路进行优化.构建基于遗传算法的A*目标函数最优化自动布线模型,来解决三维空间结构优化、系统整体布线距离优化以及金属线与通孔寄生电阻最小化问题.之后使用样本测例对建立的模型进行验证,提出新的解决路线.  相似文献   
4.
We show theoretically how tax evasion is facilitated by informal credit market through tax deferment. Our model is empirically based. Using sham litigation, tax evaders earn a higher rate of return than the stipulated penalty rate for tax evasion while the government loses tax revenue. We propose an upfront part–payment of the disputed amount of tax as a solution to the form of tax evasion we describe.  相似文献   
5.
Using a novel data set for the U.S. states, this paper examines whether household debt and the protracted debt deleveraging help explain the dismal performance of U.S. consumption since 2007 in the aftermath of the housing bubble. By separating the concepts of deleveraging and debt overhang—a flow and a stock effect—we find that excessive indebtedness exerted a meaningful drag on consumption over and beyond wealth and income effects. The overall effect, however, is modest—‐around one sixth of the slowdown in consumption between 2000–06 and 2007–12—and mostly driven by states with particularly large imbalances in their household sector. This might be indicative of non‐linearities, whereby indebtedness begins to bite only when misalignments from sustainable debt dynamics become excessive.  相似文献   
6.
I study the effect of access to local television on citizens' political knowledge. I do so by utilizing the mismatch between U.S. television markets and state borders, causing some citizens to receive local television which primarily covers neighboring state politics. I find that access to relevant local television causes citizens to be more informed about their senators' roll-call votes, and more likely to hold opinions about these senators. I also find that citizens with access to relevant local television are more likely to assess their senators based on how well the senators' roll-call votes align with the citizens' policy preferences. These results suggest that passively acquired information through television can help individuals evaluate their elected representatives.  相似文献   
7.
This paper identifies determinants of compliance with various types of national numerical fiscal rules. Based on 51 fiscal rules in force in EU member states from 1995 to 2015, the analysis identifies determinants among specific rule characteristics and their fiscal frameworks, as well as their political, (socio-)economic and supranational environments. While the average compliance across all rules and countries is around 50%, compliance with rules constraining stock (rather than flow) variables, set out in coalitional agreements, as well as rules covering larger parts of general government finances is significantly higher. Furthermore, independent monitoring and enforcement bodies (issuing real-time alerts) turn out to be significantly associated with a higher probability of compliance. Several theories of the deficit bias of governments due to government fragmentation, decentralization and political budget cycles are also significant with regards to compliance with fiscal rules. However, neither the economic environment or business cycle, nor forecast errors (except for an unexpectedly higher primary balance) on average seem to play a significant role.  相似文献   
8.
In mergers and acquisitions, the acquiring firm must combine two firms’ resources and capabilities so that the outcome yields value. In individual firms, the marketing & sales, and R&D functions have typically developed intertwined and complex relationships over time. These multifaceted dependencies may obscure the integration of the firms and their functions. In order to reveal to what extent cross-functional relationships determine the success or failure of an acquisitions, we have made one of the first attempts to study merging firms’ function-specific capabilities, underlying microfoundations, and their cross-functional relationships during the integration process—instead of focusing on acquisition capabilities as such. We use longitudinal data from two cross-border acquisitions between US and Finnish SMEs. Our results indicate that major differences between merging firms’ cross-functional microfoundations—that is, their structures, processes, routines, and skills—might either enforce or erode the seemingly promising synergies at the product and market levels, depending on managerial awareness of their nature.  相似文献   
9.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture operates several food assistance programs aimed at alleviating food insecurity. We study whether participation in both participation in both SNAP and WIC alleviates food insecurity compared with participation in SNAP alone. We bound underlying causal effects by applying nonparametric treatment effect methods that allow for endogenous selection and underreported program participation when validation data are available for one program (treatment) but not the other. We estimate average treatment effects using data from the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS). FoodAPS includes administrative data to validate SNAP participation. Information on local food prices allows us to construct a food expenditure‐based monotone instrumental variable that does not require a typical instrumental variable exclusion restriction. Under relatively weak monotonicity assumptions, we identify that the impact of participating in both programs relative to SNAP alone is strictly positive, suggesting that the programs are nonredundant. This evidence can support improved design and targeting of food programs.  相似文献   
10.
We study how natural resource rents affect the risk of internal conflict within countries and how the federal structure of countries influences this relationship. Natural resource abundance may induce excessive rent-seeking and thus increase the risk of internal conflict. Fiscal and political decentralization as an institutional arrangement for rent-sharing and political codetermination of regions within a country may limit the destructive effect of natural resource rents on internal stability. Using cross-country and panel data from more than 90 countries covering the period 1984–2004, we find evidence that natural resource rents indeed increase the risk of internal conflict, but this relationship is significantly mitigated by political decentralization.  相似文献   
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