The effects of exchange rate pass-through and cost channel on price level: The case of fragile five countries

ABSTRACT

In this study, we investigated whether the exchange rate and the interest rate had an effect on the inflation rate in the fragile five countries between the years of 1996Q4 and 2015Q4. In this context, a model was created to estimate the effect of interest rate and exchange rate on the inflation rate. The methods used in the study take into account cross-section dependence and heterogeneity. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was an exchange-rate and interest-rate pass-through effect in the fragile five countries. Moreover, it was found out that the cost channel and price puzzle were effective in Indonesia and South Africa but were not effective in Turkey, Brasil and India.     

Shipping cost and development of the landlocked developing countries: Panel evidence from the common correlated effects approach

We estimate the impact of shipping cost on development for landlocked developing countries (LLDCs). Since container trade is important to them, we construct a country-specific measure of shipping cost, called HarpexCost, which combines the global cost of container shipping with information on how exposed to container shipping each LLDC is. We employ the common correlated effects (CCE) estimator of Pesaran (Econometrica, 2006; 55: 967) to first estimate the impact of HarpexCost on the LLDCs’ development, and then recover the actual impact of shipping cost from these estimates. Overall, we observe that shipping cost has large negative effects on the LLDCs. Building upon these results, we provide new estimates on the cost of landlockedness and how trade benefits their development.     

因子分析中公因子提取方法的比较与选择

近代和现代统计分析方法中，因子分析是最重要的方法之一。因子分析中有7种提取公因子的方法，其中主成分法、极大似然法和主轴因子法是常用的方法。在着重解析这三种方法基本数学过程的基础上，对其适用条件和应用注意事项进行了比较，最后结合实例比较了不同公因子提取方法的结果，并对提取公因子过程中出现的问题给出了可能的解决办法。     

供需结构优化、分配结构演化与2035年共同富裕目标展望

共同富裕是社会主义的本质要求,中国推动经济社会发展,归根结底是要实现全体人民共同富裕。新发展阶段下中国既要优化供需结构以加快构建新发展格局,又要改善分配结构以全面贯彻新发展理念,而供需结构优化与分配结构演化又是紧密关联的。本文建立了一个包含供给结构、需求结构和分配结构的多部门动态一般均衡模型,将分配结构演化分解到供给结构与需求结构转型上,提出了需求结构通过影响供给结构进而影响分配结构的理论机制。本文对近三十年全球四十余个经济体劳动收入份额和技能溢价的演化进行了发展核算,展示了中国分配结构演化的特征事实、供需动因与国际比较。研究发现,中国分配结构演化道路具有一定的特殊性:一方面,劳动收入份额转为上升,供给侧(需求侧)最主要的推动力是持续提高的劳动密集型产业(消费品)的劳动密集程度;另一方面,技能溢价不断扩大,供给侧(需求侧)最主要的推动力是持续提高的产业内部(消费品)的技能密集程度;供需结构转型在其中也发挥了重要作用。本文还基于历史趋势定量预测了未来中国分配结构的演化趋势,为实现2035年共同富裕目标提供了现实依据与政策参考。     

美欧TTIP谈判最新进展及中国的应对策略

《跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系协议》谈判被认为是历史上最大双边贸易协议谈判,如果协议达成,将会给美欧带来颇丰的经济和地缘政治利益,因此双方对该协议都抱有很大期望并为谈判设定了较高标准.但是,双方在诸多敏感问题如农产品补贴、转基因、地理标志等方面都存在分歧,这给谈判增加了不小的难度.无论该自由贸易和投资协议最终能否达成,中国都应积极关注,因为一旦达成最终的协议,将有可能动摇中国在世界贸易体系中的地位.     

美军分布式通用地面站系统的发展现状与趋势

作为美军情报接收、处理和分发的主要系统,近年来,分布式通用地面站系统（DCGS）在全球信息栅格(GIG)、云技术、大数据等新兴信息技术推动下取得了显著建设成果。简要介绍了美军各军种DCGS系统的项目进展,重点总结了空军DCGS-AF系统和陆军DCGS-A系统的发展现状及技术特性,包括DCGS-AF Block 10.2和DCGS-A 3.0 Griffin软件基线的架构和能力等,结合DCGS系统在伊拉克和阿富汗战场的作战应用分析了系统的未来发展趋势,以期为相关人员提供参考。     

推行双语——建立和谐语言生态环境的有效措施

推行双语是建立和谐语言生态环境,延缓少数民族语言逐渐走向濒危的有效措施之一,在本文的论述中解释了双语、双语现象及其类型,阐述了推行双语的必要性、优越性和重要性,并指出了推行双语必须要树立的正确观念——和谐发展。这对于形成健康的双语社会,更好的发挥母语和通用语在社会生活中的功能和作用,有着一定的理论指导价值。     

Modelling interactions among the housing market and key US sectors

This study evaluates the dynamic interactions among the housing market and ten key US sectors including: consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, industrial, technology, health care, materials, utility and telecommunications. Long-run results indicate that the housing market is integrated with each of the ten sector and that the degree of convergence has increased over time and especially after the onset of the most recent housing crisis. Moreover, the housing market contributes most heavily to the common trends indicating that the housing market is the ‘leader’ market that drives each sector towards the long-run equilibrium relationships. Short-run analyses indicate causal linkages emanating from the housing market to each sector with reciprocal feedback. Finally, impulse response function analysis reveal that shocks from each sector affect the housing market but that shocks from the housing market have a (comparatively) more profound and persistent impact on each sector.     

Does the Decoupling Reform Affect Agricultural Employment in Sweden? Evidence from an Exogenous Change

This study uses aggregated municipality data, for the years 2001–2009, to explore whether direct payments to farmers affect agricultural employment in Swedish municipalities. The decoupling reform in 2005 included a new grassland support payment accompanied by management obligations that had unexpectedly high redistributive consequences as it greatly increased common agricultural policy payments to municipalities with large areas of grassland. In some municipalities, total payments more than doubled. Thus, since the reform seems exogenous to the behaviour of farmers and the regional economy, the reform can be used to identify a subsidy effect. We find that a permanent increase in agricultural employment can be attributed to the new grassland support. Our results indicate that the grassland support generates an additional job at a cost of SEK 250,000, relative to the average agricultural wage of SEK 333,000. However, the subsidy effect is largely keeping jobs in agriculture, i.e. the grassland support may be slowing down the process of structural change in grassland regions.