区域耕地生态价值补偿量化研究——以新疆为例

[目的]在耕地保护形势日趋严峻的情形下,开展耕地生态价值补偿量化研究对了解耕地外部性价值的大小及深化耕地生态价值的量化方法和思路具有重要意义。[方法]文章以新疆为例,从14个地州市的耕地生态服务价值出发,将生态超载指数作为耕地生态服务价值与生态足迹在各地州市转移的测度,同时综合考虑各地州市的经济发展状况,通过构建市域生态价值补偿量化模型分别测算各地州市耕地生态价值补偿量。[结果](1)2015年新疆耕地生态服务价值整体上有盈余输出,全疆共可获得生态补偿费103.31亿元;(2)2015年新疆南北疆耕地生态服务价值比为1:1.7,生态足迹总量比为1:2.2,生态超载指数北亏南盈,表明南北疆耕地生态足迹和耕地生态服务价值间呈"空间异位"格局;(3)新疆北疆乌鲁木齐市、克拉玛依市、吐鲁番市及哈密市共需支付耕地生态补偿费55.67亿元,北疆(乌鲁木齐市、克拉玛依市、吐鲁番市及哈密市外)和南疆地区分别可获得生态补偿费为96.59亿元和62.39亿元。[结论]该文可为新疆各地州市构建耕地生态价值补偿路径提供新思路,也可为以耕地生态价值量确定耕地保护指标和构建耕地生态补偿机制提供参考。     

Developing a financial conditions index for a post-transition country: the case of Croatia

The interconnection between financial and business cycles and the importance of surveillance over financial markets emphasise the need for the development of indicators that could trace financial conditions in a country. In this paper, we focus on developing a financial conditions index for a post-transition country – Croatia. Since financial conditions indices for post-transition markets differ from those for developed markets due to differences in the development of their financial systems and the availability of data, we show that financial conditions indices constructed for post-transition markets need to be tailored to the specifics of such markets.     

Is Abe's Fiscal Policy Ricardian? What Does the Fiscal Theory of Prices Mean for Japan?

The second arrow of Abenomics is flexible fiscal policy. However, it does not mean just fiscal stimulus as the Abe administration decided on the fiscal consolidation target of achieving a primary surplus by fiscal year 2020. Improving the primary balance implies making government debt more sustainable. Although the consumption tax rate was raised from 5% to 8% in April 2014, the Abe administration has decided twice to postpone increasing the consumption tax from 8% to 10%. In addition, a fiscal stimulus package was implemented. We use a Fiscal Stance Index to examine fiscal policy from the viewpoint of fiscal sustainability and a Markov switching model to examine fiscal policy from the viewpoint of the fiscal theory of the price level, and find that the Abe's fiscal stance is not Ricardian.     

美国金融危机压力的来源及其对中国防范金融风险的启示——基于MIMIC模型的实证分析

党的十九大报告指出：“要坚决打好防范化解重大风险攻坚战，其关键又是防范金融风险，包括防范中国系统性金融风险的发生和抵御国际性金融危机传导所带来的外部冲击。”2007年由美国次贷危机演变成的全球性金融危机，至今还在持续影响着部分国家的经济和金融发展。2015年底开始的美国第六轮加息周期和2018年3月中美贸易战的爆发，使得中国的经济发展面临更大的机遇和挑战。本文以次贷危机为背景，基于MIMIC模型对2005—2016年的美国金融危机压力进行了测度，找到压力的来源为外汇储备增长率、出口增长率和实际有效汇率高估三个方面，进而分析其产生的根本原因，最后从三方面提出中国防范化解重大风险的对策和启示。     

我国公民水素养评价指标体系的构建

为准确描述我国公民水素养水平,有针对性地加强水资源宣传教育,提高公民水素养,在科学素养、环境素养的研究基础上,设计包含有水知识、水态度、水行为3个一级指标、10个二级指标、29个三级指标的公民水素养多层级评价指标体系,运用层次分析法和李克特量表分别确立各级指标权重和设计调查问卷,并以北京市为例对公民水素养评价指标体系进行通用性分析。结果表明,水知识、水态度、水行为在水素养评价中各自的权重为9.14%、21.76%和69.10%;水知识、水态度得分相对较高,而水行为得分则相对较低,表明以水行为核心的水素养提升任务任重而道远。     

Optimal privatization policy with asymmetry among private firms

We revisit the relationship between the optimal privatization policy and market competition indexes such as the Hirschman–Herfindahl index. It is affected by the number of the firms and asymmetry among the sizes of the firms; the smaller the number of firms and the more asymmetry among firms, the higher the market concentration index. The literature on mixed oligopolies suggested that the optimal degree of privatization increases with the number of private firms, and thus, decreases with the market competition index, assuming that all private firms are homogeneous. We investigate how asymmetry among private firms affects the optimal degree of privatization. We propose the simplest and natural model formulation to discuss asymmetry among private firms. We find that the optimal degree of privatization is either nonmonotone or monotonically increasing, and thus never monotonically decreasing, in asymmetry among private firms.     

The impact of shareholders and creditors rights on IPO performance: An international study

This paper examines the impact of cross-country variation in shareholders' and debt holders' rights on post-IPO performance and survival of newly listed stocks across the globe. Using a sample of 10,490 initial public offerings (IPOs) in 40 countries between 2000 and 2013, we find that post-IPO performance and survival is better in countries with stronger shareholder protection, but the impact of creditor protection is negative i.e. stronger creditor protection leads to poor post-IPO performance and survival. This effect is driven by rules requiring creditors’ consent for company reorganization and the mandatory replacement of incumbent managers. Reputable IPO advisors exacerbate the positive impact of shareholder rights and the negative impact of creditor rights.     

Revising price history: consumer price index for Norway 1492–2018

ABSTRACT

The paper presents a new combined annual cost of living and consumer price index for Norway covering 1492–2018, indicating that Norwegian price history has to be revised. The new historical price index is constructed on a significantly richer data material, which also makes it cover a longer period of price history than the existing one. This is made possible by the compilation of quantitative data from numerous sources, mostly originating from the eighteenth, nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, with grain prices stretching back to 1492. The new combined cost of living and consumer price index is constructed by a Laspeyres approach with shifting baskets for commodities and expenditure groups.

The index makes it possible to follow annual inflation and deflation in Norway for a period of 526 years. When comparing to existing indices, the new series reveals that revisions are needed in Norwegian price history. These make the historical price development more in line with those of the neighbouring countries and more in line with the pattern of wholesale prices.     

Employment quality index for the South African labour market

ABSTRACT

While the South African government specifically set targets on job creation in its numerous economic strategies since the economic transition, various local studies examined the levels and trends in labour force, employment and unemployment to evaluate if these targets were met. However, the quality of employment has not been thoroughly examined. This is the first local study that fills the existing research gap by deriving a composite, multidimensional employment quality index by taking 18 indicators from seven dimensions into consideration: wage, work hours and flexibility, employment security, income security, social benefits, skills and participation. Using the 2010–16 Quarterly Labour Force Survey data, the empirical findings indicated that highly educated, white male workers aged at least 35 years, who lived in urban areas of the Western Cape and Gauteng provinces, and were involved in high skilled occupations in the formal, public sector enjoyed significantly better employment quality.     

Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies

The analysis of the build-up of risks in emerging economies have traditionally been scarce and focused mostly on external risks, despite the recent substantial development of their financial system. This paper builds an index of financial vulnerabilities tailored to emerging economies, grouping 32 indicators around four poles: valuation and risk appetite, imbalances in the non-financial sector, financial sector vulnerabilities, and global vulnerabilities. It adopts a model-free approach, purposely departing from early warning models or complex econometric constructs, and rely on data made already available by international organisations. Our index of financial vulnerabilities enables a granular mapping of where risk originates and how it spreads to other parts of the financial system. Using various data visualisation tools and benefitting from the flexibility of our index’s methodology, we are able build a narrative of the evolution of financial stability in emerging economies from 2005 to 2015. Finally, we also discuss the relation between our index and both the business cycle (proxied by GDP) and the credit cycle (proxied by the credit-to-GDP gap).