Institutional dynamics and access to non-farm employment in rural China, 1950–1996

This article examines non-farm employment in the context of Chinese rural institutional change, based on evidence from discrete-time logistic models for event history analysis using the Life History and Social Change survey. We find the transition to non-farm sector rose rapidly during the Great Leap Forward and market reform, while the Cultural Revolution saw it reach the lowest ebb. While male advantage prevailed exclusively during the Cultural Revolution and early marketization, education possessed a stable positive effect in all historical periods. Although the returns to different kinds of political capital vary along with institutional dynamics, intergenerational reproduction was greatly reduced after the Cultural Revolution.     

A “load-carrier” perspective approach for assessing tourism resource carrying capacity

To address the challenge of global tourism resources being overloaded or underutilization, there requires an adequate method for assessing the tourism resource carrying capacity (TRCC). However, the majority of previous evaluation perspectives on TRCC are limited by thresholds. This paper develops an innovative approach for assessing TRCC from the “load-carrier” perspective. TRCC is assessed by exploring the interaction between the carriers and loads of tourism resources. Chongqing city in China is employed as the case city to demonstrate the application of the established TRCC method. The conclusions are as follows: 1) This study elaborates the new connotation of TRCC from the perspective of “load-carrier”, and establishes the TRCC evaluation system based on the dynamic relationship between the carrier and load of tourism resources. 2) The proposed TRCC evaluation method is proved effective through an empirical study of Chongqing. 3) Chongqing's case unveils that the overload performance of TRCC can be dynamically monitored and predicted. By applying the TRCC evaluation methodology developed in this study, tourism managers and policymakers can identify whether it is the load or the carrier of tourism resources that affect the performance of TRCC, thereby taking targeted policy measures to eliminate potential risks of overload or underutilization.     

新基建发展对产业升级的影响机制研究

新基建作为现代化基础设施体系的重要组成部分，已经成为中国经济高质量发展的重要支撑。基于2015—2021年中国71个城市的面板数据，构建双向固定效应、中介效应和调节效应三种回归模型，实证检验新基建发展对城市产业结构水平的影响及内在机制。研究发现：新基建发展能促进产业高级化水平，改善不合理的产业结构状态，提升产业合理化水平；新基建通过发展物联网和激励城市研发创新两种间接路径对产业结构转型升级产生积极影响；新基建对产业结构水平的影响受到地方政府干预行为的调节作用，在地方政府合理的行政管理下，新基建对产业转型升级的积极作用更为明显；新基建发展对产业结构水平的提升作用具有区域异质性和城市规模异质性，在中西部地区和大城市地区的作用效果更为明显。     

Capital Flows to Latin America (2003–17): A Critical Survey from Prebisch’s Business Cycle Theory

ABSTRACT

The economic literature on capital flows to developing countries has shared two important commonalities since the 1990s. Published works (whether they focus on the external situation or stress the domestic determinants of capital flows) tend to assume a beneficial effect of capital inflows, which leads to an improvement of peripheral institutions, whose deficiencies are ostensibly the main cause of economic turmoil and/or failure in attracting capital flows, in continuity with New Institutional Economics. In doing so, mainstream economists deliberately overlook the asymmetric characteristics of the international monetary system and the persisting hegemony of dollar. Raul Prebisch’s pioneering work on business cycles in Latin America provide an alternative view, one capable of amending the existing mainstream literature. On the one hand, Prebisch stressed the destabilizing role of capital inflows on Latin American economies, particularly short-term speculative capital. On the other hand, Prebisch designed a set of counter cyclical monetary policies in order to contrast capital volatility, particularly during downturns. An analysis of stylized facts shows that, when correctly updated, Prebisch’s theory has remarkable explanatory potential when applied to Latin America’s current economic and financial situation.     

实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

Pursuing your leader development: Lessons from 101 executives

To lead effectively in a VUCA (i.e., volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) environment, leaders must quickly and continuously acquire new skills. However, formal development opportunities aren’t nearly enough to support the ongoing skill development leaders need to manage the level of complexity and change they are facing. Instead, leaders must take ownership of their own development. In this paper, we describe a straightforward, four-step process that leaders can implement to pursue their individualized development through leader development planning. Specifically, we walk leaders through the evidence-based steps of creating their unique leader development plan (LDP), including (1) identifying their leadership strengths and weaknesses, (2) setting effective leader development goals, (3) designing SMART strategies, and (4) reflecting, refining, and realigning their plan. Throughout the article, we detail positive examples as well as common pitfalls that we observed from our work supporting 101 mid- to senior-level leaders in designing their LDPs. Our purpose in doing so is to provide tools and examples to enable leaders at all levels to drive their development at their own pace.     

西藏城乡居民家庭养老现状与趋向分析

在西藏,家庭曾是老年人养老的基本依赖。然而,随着经济社会条件的变化和人口流动,老年人的生存状况与过去大不相同。传统的家庭养老功能面临着新的挑战,主要表现如家庭结构逐渐趋向小型化、子女数量减少而使家庭供养负担加重、老龄化导致家庭养老功能弱化。面对这些新的挑战,西藏城乡居民的养老出现新趋向,如自我养老观念提高、女儿养老地位加强以及社会化养老等。     

基于GIS和RS的蓄滞洪区和谐发展的技术路线

应用遥感与地理信息系统技术构建基于GIS模型的蓄滞洪区空间数据库,对蓄滞洪区内的基础地理数据进行存储、管理,并对空间数据进行可视化和空间分析等操作;运用RS技术对蓄滞洪区内的土地利用、生态环境变化等情况进行动态监测,建立蓄滞洪区发展指标体系;探求蓄滞洪区的和谐发展模式,为蓄滞洪区的可持续发展提供科学依据。     

Producing drama: a comparison of film tax incentives to alternative uses

Incentive packages are popular tools for economic development. However, development projects are often considered in isolation without an analysis of opportunity costs. In this study, we use an intuitive framework for comparing projects and weigh alternate projects against North Carolina’s film incentive programme. The results indicate that there are substantial differences in the economic impact of the projects we consider in this study. Our results suggest that policy decisions by governments and economic development officials should weigh a potential project against alternative uses in order to optimize the use of incentives.