双支柱调控的金融稳定效应研究*

本文基于全球42个主要经济体1991—2016年的面板数据，系统考察了双支柱政策框架的金融稳定效应。实证结果表明：（1）货币政策和宏观审慎政策在抑制家庭信贷增长上具有显著作用，双支柱政策在缓解金融风险顺周期性上具有显著的金融稳定效应；（2）盯住贷款的宏观审慎工具和针对借款人、贷款人的宏观审慎组合具有更为显著的金融稳定效应；（3）新兴经济体的货币政策在抑制家庭信贷扩张上的作用不显著，但其宏观审慎政策的金融稳定效应相较发达经济体更为显著，发达经济体双支柱政策的金融稳定效应总体显著，其中货币政策效应更为突出；（4）发达经济体的货币政策效应在下行周期优于上行周期，宏观审慎政策及其与货币政策的交互效应在上行周期优于下行周期；（5）只有个别宏观审慎工具会对失业率、消费和物价产生微弱的负效应。     

粤港澳大湾区制造业集聚与区域创新

以2009—2020年粤港澳大湾区11个城市为研究对象，探讨制造业集聚与区域创新的关系。研究发现，制造业集聚显著提高区域创新水平，可通过提高企业竞争这一路径实现。进一步分析发现，金融业集聚对区域创新发展具有显著的正向关系，金融产业和制造业产融协同集聚显著提高区域创新水平。研究结果表明，制造业集聚加剧产业内部企业创新竞争，带动区域创新发展，且金融业在创新中起到积极的推动作用。指出应鼓励区域企业创新竞争，优化营商环境，为产业融合发展提供保障。     

Environmental proactivity,competitive strategy,and market performance: The mediating role of environmental reputation

This article examines the impact of small and medium-sized enterprises' (SMEs) proactive environmental strategy on market performance through the mediating mechanism of environmental reputation. In addition, we investigate the potential moderating role of competitive strategies on the environmental reputation-market performance nexus. Data were collected from 223 SMEs. Using the hierarchical multiple regression analysis, the results show that a proactive environmental strategy positively enhances environmental reputation. Also, the influence of proactively environmental strategy on market performance is mediated by environmental reputation. In addition, our findings show the relationship between environmental reputation and market performance is greater for firms that adopt the differentiation strategy but not significant for firms adopting the low-cost and integrated strategies. Our study offers several theoretical and practical implications.     

跨国并购执行阶段财务风险研究

改革开放以来,中国经济持续高速增长,国内市场逐步开放,国家对“一带一路”的推进也使越来越多的企业试图通过海外并购的方式扩大其国际市场份额,以此提高企业竞争力。但即便有国家政策的支持,想要完成海外并购依旧是困难重重,因此,系统分析所存在的财务风险并加以控制变成重中之重。论文对跨国并购现状进行概述,随后重点分析在执行阶段所存在的几点财务风险,并提出相应的防范建议。     

Application of bootstrap re-sampling method in statistical measurement of sustainability

Sustainability is of essential interest for many organizations and is defined as the ability to maintain existing resources at a certain rate or level when encountered with barriers. Factors affecting sustainability are categorized as enablers (capacities) and barriers (challenges) that have positive and negative effects on sustainability, respectively. To evaluate the status of sustainability, organizations need a measurement method to account for all the aspects of the sustainability classified into social, economic, and environmental tiers. Previously many researchers have provided indexes and measure specific to the studied field, which is not applicable to other areas. Furthermore, the proposed methods fail to cover all the aspects of sustainability. This study investigates a statistical method to measure the sustainability and the application of the bootstrap re-sampling method in order to overcome the problem with normality assumption when the sample size is not large enough and thus develop a more realistic stochastic model. The Bootstrap re-sampling method enables the unbiased estimation of population parameters such as mean and standard deviation. The proposed method is evaluated by comparing its results with those found in the literature.     

我国农作物秸秆综合利用产业促进政策研究

［目的］深入地分析了我国秸秆综合利用产业现行促进政策，阐述了存在的主要问题，并提出针对性解决方法，以期为促进秸秆综合利用政策体系建设提供政策建议。［方法］按照法律法规、目标引导和考核、财税补贴、技术研发和推广、信息统计等进行分类，综合评述各类现行政策的特点、使用范围和有效性，并采用相关者利益分析等方法分析存在问题，提出政策建议。［结果］随着我国秸秆露天焚烧问题日益突出，国家加大了对秸秆综合利用重视的程度，出台一系列关于秸秆综合利用等方面的法律、法规和激励政策等，初步构建了秸秆综合利用政策体系，呈现出聚焦关键环节、关键技术和重点地区的趋势。但是，还存在着政策的有效性有限，未形成合力； 农民参与度低； 使用环节缺乏激励政策等问题。［结论］建议出台区域生态补偿制度，落实耕地地力保护补贴政策，鼓励终端产品使用和消费等政策。     

Effects of financial constraints on export performance of firms during the global financial crisis: microeconomic evidence from Korea

This study uses a manufacturing firm-level panel data set of South Korea for 2006–2013 to investigate the effect of financial constraints on the export performance of firms, with particular emphasis on the corporate ownership structure. The empirical results show that foreign multinational corporation (MNC) subsidiaries are not affected by financial constraint during both crisis and noncrisis periods, implying advantages of foreign ownership. However, domestic firms suffer more from financial constraints on exports during crisis years. In particular, domestic firms without parent firms are financially constrained during both crisis and noncrisis periods. However, those with parent firms do not experience financial constraints during noncrisis periods, although they too suffer from them during crisis periods. Thus, parent–subsidiary linkage among domestic firms plays an important role in alleviating financial constraints on export activity in noncrisis years but not as much during crisis years. Therefore, domestic parent firms exhibit less resilience to the global financial crisis, in comparison to foreign MNC parent firms.     

Asymmetric information consolidation and price discovery: Inferring bad news from insider sales

Due to the paucity of sources of negative firm‐specific information, US capital markets have more difficulty identifying and incorporating bad news into stock prices than they do good news. Even though insider selling is a potentially important proxy for undisclosed bad news, researchers have difficulty ex ante identifying information‐based sales due to an inability to separate liquidity‐motivated from information‐based insider trades. We hypothesize that when insiders in multiple firms sell shares of one firm in which they are insiders and at the same time buy shares of other insider portfolio firms, the sale is more likely to be information‐based, since the proceeds are reinvested. Conversely, when an insider sells one firm without purchasing others or sells multiple insider firms the sale is likely liquidity‐motivated. We find that insider sales identified as information‐based using this algorithm are followed by significant negative abnormal returns. Information‐based sales are also more likely to be associated with delistings, earnings declines and earnings restatements. Analysts are also more likely to revise their earnings forecasts downwards for these firms. It is thus possible to ex ante identify insider sales with information content. Our results will be of interest to investors and also to regulators designing insider trading rules.     

基于GM(1,1)模型的造纸业上市公司财务研究——以冠豪高新为例

财务风险是企业调整发展战略、提升管理水平的重要参考指标之一。财务风险预测模型的建立能够预测企业在中短期内的财务风险,为企业敲响警钟。以造纸业上市公司冠豪高新为例,选取近五年财务杠杆系数为风险指标,建立GM(1,1)风险预测模型,结果显示该公司短期内财务风险呈下降趋势,调查发现这主要得益于产品成本的降低以及营销策略的改变。