Determinants of China's bilateral trade balance in global value chains

This paper identifies the determinants of China's bilateral trade balance using a new measure based on international input–output data, the so-called ‘trade in value-added’ (TiVA), which can prevent double counting in the estimation of bilateral trade balance. Our results show that using a measure based on gross exports, rather than TiVA, causes relatively large overestimation of the impact of the RMB exchange rate on China's bilateral trade balance. This overestimation is mainly because that the increasing production of exports may require increasing intermediate imports as a consequence of international fragmentation of production in global value chains. In addition, our results also show that the impact of FDI inflows on China's bilateral trade balances depends on the position and role of China and its trading partners in GVCs.     

军民深度融合创新发展：历史逻辑与作用机制

军民融合创新是国家创新体系的重要组成部分。当前军民深度融合发展存在宏观环境约束、社会资本缺失、技术创新滞后等问题和困境，现有研究主要从政府主导作用和融合治理结构等视角提出突破军民深度融合创新发展瓶颈的路径机制，对军民深度融合发展的动力机制和作用机制研究较少。中国历史上通过劳武结合的军事制度实现军事需求和经济需求的协调对于我国现阶段实施军民深度融合具有重要启示作用，这种深度融合方式主要通过主导机制、规范机制、协调机制、互惠机制、保障机制等发挥作用。如何实现军民一体化，发挥各军民融合参与主体的能动性是实现我国军民深度融合发展亟待解决的问题。     

Causal effects of the United States and Japan on Pacific-Rim stock markets: nonparametric quantile causality approach

This article adopts a nonparametric quantile causality approach to examine the causal effects of the U.S. and Japan stock markets on the stock markets of the Pacific-Rim region. This approach allows us to detect not only nonlinear causalities in conditional return (mean) and conditional volatility (variance) but also the asymmetries of causalities under extreme market conditions (bullish vs. bearish states). Our results provide significant evidence of causality in return and volatility at different points of the conditional distributions of returns, with the greater effects from the U.S. than from Japan. Asymmetric quantile causality patterns are particularly pronounced in the case of Japan.     

Integrating uncertain user-generated demand data when locating facilities for disaster response commodity distribution

This paper presents a new facility location problem variant with application in disaster relief. The problem is unique in that both verified data and unverified user-generated data are available for consideration during decision making. The problem is motivated by the recent need of integrating unverified social data (e.g., Twitter posts) with data from more traditional sources, such as on-the-ground assessments and aerial flyovers, to make optimal decisions during disaster relief. Integrating social data can enable identifying larger numbers of needs in shorter amounts of time, but because the information is unverified, some of it may be inaccurate. This paper seeks to provide a “proof of concept” illustrating how the unverified social data may be exploited. To do so, a framework for incorporating uncertain user-generated data when locating Points of Distribution (PODs) for disaster relief is presented. Then, three decision strategies that differ in how the uncertain data is considered are defined. Finally, the framework and decision strategies are demonstrated via a small computational study to illustrate the benefits user-generated data may afford across a variety of disaster scenarios.     

Is social expenditure responsible for recent rise in public debt in OECD countries?

In developed economies, social expenditure is alleged to cause the rise in public debt over the last three decades. With dynamic panel data of 34 OECD countries from 1980 to 2014, we find robust evidence that the rise in public debt is not attributable to social expenditure.     

Dual boundary spanning: Toward a typology of outside‐in open innovation in the Canadian context

The extant literature runs short in understanding openness of innovation regarding and the different pathways along which internal and external knowledge resources can be combined. This study proposes a unique typology for outside‐in innovations based on two distinct ways of boundary spanning: whether an innovation idea is created internally or externally and whether an innovation process relies on external knowledge resources. This yields four possible types of innovation, which represent the nuanced variation of outside‐in innovations. Using historical data from Canada for 1945–1980, this study unveils different implications of these innovation types for different levels of innovation novelty. Copyright © 2016 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

货币政策、企业家信心与上市公司投资效率*

企业、企业家等微观主体对货币政策的反应，在较大程度上影响货币政策的效果。货币政策可通过对企业家信心的影响，进而对公司投资效率产生作用。基于中国2007—2016年40个季度A股上市公司样本的实证研究表明：企业家信心在货币政策传导过程中有不可忽视的作用。企业家信心增强或者货币政策宽松时会加剧过度投资，减轻投资不足；企业家信心减弱或者货币政策紧缩时可以有效抑制过度投资，但会加剧投资不足。其中，国有企业对企业家信心和货币政策松紧的敏感性更强。进一步，货币政策对企业投资效率的影响，也会通过货币政策和企业家信心的交互作用而发挥作用。这种作用在国有企业和非国有企业之间无显著差异。     

Banking union: the problem of untried systems

This article explores the problems the EU and the SRB face in trying to implement a credible system for resolving banks without the use of taxpayer funds as a key part of banking union that avoids the doom loop between indebted banks and indebted sovereigns. It finds that without clear examples of how the system works in practice it is very difficult to provide convincing evidence of what will happen given the large number of options for bailing in, the continuing predilection for bailing out in some states and the lack of fiscal backstop for general threats to financial stability.